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Fantasy Football - Consistency Rankings

Ray Flowers looks at the top performers of the 2013 season and tries to get to the bottom of whom were, and weren't, the most consistent point producers in the fantasy football game.

Slide 1 of 5 Fantasy Football - Consistency Rankings | Slide - 1 FantasyAlarm.com

Some folks will tell you they want the guys that have huge weeks in fantasy football cause they win matchups. Unfortunately those same big point scorers are often like a series of mountains in the wilderness. The view is fantastic from the summit, but boy is there nothing to see in the valley at the base of that mountain. No matter if you prefer the big game guys, or if you like to target players that seemingly more moderate yet consistent, the following piece should be of keen interest to you. 

Football players, but the very nature of the game, often see their performances differ from week-to-week. That's why so many questions come up with start/sit each week during the season. Only a handful of players seem to be immune to worry for fantasy football owners. We can talk offenses, defenses, weather, matchups etc. in our goal to get to the bottom of who the best and worst players are in any given week. But what about for the duration of the season? Who were the most consistent and inconsistent players at each position? So glad you asked. I stared at spreadsheets for hours to answer just that question.

In what follows we will take a look at the top players at QB, RB, WR and TE. We'll break down their weekly efforts into a series of categories to find out which players offered stability from week-to-week and which players would have given you an ulcer if you rode the roller coaster week after week.

Before we get to the players on the next four pages it's important to understand the parameters of the study, and to that end here is the scoring system that will form the basis of what follows.

Rules for QB, RB, WR, TE, Event Points
Number of Passing TDs 4 points each
Passing Yards 1 point for 20 yards
Passing 2 Pointers 2 points each
Number of Rushing TDs 6 points each
Rushing Yards 1 point for 10 yards
Rushing 2 Pointers 2 points each
Number of Receiving TDs 6 points each
Receiving Yards 1 point for 10 yards
Receptions 1 point each
Receiving 2 Pointers 2 points each
   
Slide 2 of 5 Fantasy Football - Consistency Rankings | Slide - 2 FantasyAlarm.com
# Player Pts Avg 25.00 20-25 15-19.9 Under 15 Games Games 20+ %
1 Manning, Peyton DEN QB 467.10 31.14 10 4 1 0 15 0.93
2 Brees, Drew NOS QB 395.10 26.34 8 5 1 1 15 0.87
3 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 354.20 23.61 8 3 2 2 15 0.73
4 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 346.50 23.1 5 4 3 3 15 0.60
5 Newton, Cam CAR QB 336.30 22.42 5 3 4 3 15 0.53
6 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 334.10 22.27 6 3 4 2 15 0.60
7 Luck, Andrew IND QB 329.60 21.97 4 5 4 2 15 0.60
8 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 327.10 21.81 4 4 4 3 15 0.53
9 Romo, Tony DAL QB 320.00 21.33 3 5 5 2 15 0.53
10 Wilson, Russell SEA QB 318.90 21.26 5 3 3 4 15 0.53
11 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 313.00 20.87 3 6 4 2 15 0.60
12 Brady, Tom NEP QB 309.90 20.66 5 2 3 5 15 0.47
13 Smith, Alex KCC QB 306.90 20.46 4 4 3 4 15 0.53
14 Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB 305.10 20.34 3 5 6 1 15 0.53
15 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 293.80 19.59 3 4 5 3 15 0.47
16 Palmer, Carson ARI QB 281.40 18.76 2 3 7 3 15 0.33
17 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 278.60 18.57 4 1 6 4 15 0.33
18 Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 275.80 21.22 5 3 3 2 13 0.62
19 Foles, Nick PHI QB 274.20 22.85 6 2 1 3 12 0.67
20 Smith, Geno NYJ QB 254.70 16.98 3 3 2 7 15 0.40
21 Manning, Eli NYG QB 254.60 16.97 1 2 7 5 15 0.20
22 Fitzpatrick, Ryan TEN QB 211.90 21.19 5 0 1 4 10 0.50
23 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 202.40 20.24 4 2 2 2 10 0.60
24 Henne, Chad JAC QB 200.70 14.34 0 1 7 6 14 0.07
25 Glennon, Mike TBB QB 190.80 15.9 0 2 5 5 12 0.17

*** NOTE: The rankings only include Weeks 1-16 since the overwhelming majority of leagues don't play in Week 17.

*** NOTE II: My shorthand for the four categories follows: (1) Huge, (2) Big, (3) Average, (4) Disaster.

QUARTERBACKS

Peyton Manning had the most 25 points game in 2013. He was tied with Drew Brees for the most games of 20+ points. Matthew Stafford also had eight huge games. He fell behind the other two in 20-25 point games though. 

Nick Foles was only 19th in total points at the QB position last year, but we all know that he didn't play a full season of games. Regardless Foles had six huge games, more than 14 quarterbacks who finished ahead of him in total points. 

Matt Ryan was stable. Not often elite, but often very good. He had the most games in the 20-25 point range with six. 

Carson Palmer was just about the most average arm going. In seven of his 15 starts he was in the 15-19.9 point range. He was joined in mediocrity by Eli Manning and Chad Henne. Palmer had two huge games, Eli one and Henne zero. 

Geno Smith was the worst full-time starter in 2013. He had seven games under 15 points. That's the same total of disasters as Brees, Stafford and Russell Wilson – combined. 

Finally, the title of Mr. Stability can be shared by two men. Ben Roethlisberger had four huge games, four solid games, four average games and four disaster games. The total for Alex Smith were four, four, three and four. 

Slide 3 of 5 Fantasy Football - Consistency Rankings | Slide - 3 FantasyAlarm.com
# Player Pts Avg 20 & Up 15-20 10 – 14.9 Under 10 Games Games 15+ %
1 Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 382 25.47 11 3 0 1 15 0.93
2 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 312.2 20.81 7 5 3 0 15 0.80
3 Forte, Matt CHI RB 303.6 20.24 7 5 1 2 15 0.80
4 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 279.2 18.61 6 3 3 3 15 0.60
5 Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 260.2 17.35 6 2 2 5 15 0.53
6 Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 246.4 18.95 5 2 5 0 12 0.58
7 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 238.7 17.05 7 1 2 4 14 0.57
8 Bush, Reggie DET RB 229.7 17.67 5 1 4 3 13 0.46
9 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 228.4 16.31 6 1 4 2 13 0.54
10 Johnson, Chris TEN RB 221.1 14.74 4 2 6 3 15 0.40
11 Jackson, Fred BUF RB 215 14.33 2 3 5 5 15 0.33
12 Woodhead, Danny SDC RB 214.4 14.29 3 4 3 5 15 0.47
13 Bell, Joique DET RB 213.1 14.21 5 1 2 7 15 0.40
14 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 212.6 14.17 3 3 4 5 15 0.40
15 Thomas, Pierre NOS RB 203.9 13.59 1 4 3 7 15 0.33
16 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 202.3 16.86 3 4 4 1 12 0.58
17 Gore, Frank SFO RB 195.5 13.03 2 2 7 4 15 0.27
18 Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 194.9 12.99 2 3 6 4 15 0.33
19 Stacy, Zac STL RB 177.6 13.66 2 3 4 4 13 0.38
20 Morris, Alfred WAS RB 176 11.73 0 2 8 5 15 0.13
21 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 175.1 12.51 1 3 6 4 14 0.29
22 Sproles, Darren NOS RB 172.5 12.32 1 2 4 7 14 0.21
23 Jennings, Rashad OAK RB 170.8 12.2 2 3 2 6 13 0.38
24 Rice, Ray BAL RB 168.1 12.01 3 1 3 7 14 0.29
25 Ellington, Andre ARI RB 158.1 11.29 2 2 3 7 14 0.29
26 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 154.8 11.06 1 1 5 7 14 0.14
27 Tate, Ben HOU RB 149.1 10.65 1 1 3 9 14 0.14
28 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB 143.4 9.56 2 0 4 9 15 0.13
29 Mendenhall, Rashard ARI RB 142.1 10.15 1 1 4 8 14 0.14
30 Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 137.9 9.85 1 1 4 8 14 0.14
31 Brown, Donald IND RB 137.6 9.17 1 2 2 10 15 0.20
32 Richardson, Trent IND RB 134.7 8.98 1 0 4 10 15 0.07
33 Jackson, Steven ATL RB 133.9 12.17 2 2 2 5 11 0.36
34 Powell, Bilal NYJ RB 130.7 8.71 0 2 3 10 15 0.13
35 Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 128.1 9.85 2 0 3 8 13 0.15
36 Vereen, Shane NEP RB 121 17.29 2 3 0 2 7 0.71
37 Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB 117.2 7.81 0 2 2 11 15 0.13
38 Miller, Lamar MIA RB 117.2 7.81 0 2 2 11 15 0.13
39 Tolbert, Mike CAR RB 116.6 7.77 0 2 2 11 15 0.13
40 Ogbonnaya, Chris CLE RB 116.3 7.75 1 2 0 12 15 0.20

 

RUNNING BACKS

Jamaal Charles was the only back in football who had 11 huge games. He also had three big games and just one disaster. LeSean McCoy “only” had seven huge games but he pulled off the feat that Charles didn't. McCoy had zero disaster outings in 2013. Sign up DeMarco Murray for that list as well with zero disaster outings. He wasn't as good on the top end as McCoy but he put up solid point totals each week, even when not reaching the stratosphere. 

Matt Forte had two disaster games but he matched McCoy with 80 percent of his outings being a huge or big game. Charles, of course, led the way at 93 percent. The only other back who was in the top-40 in overall fantasy points to be over 65 percent was Shane Vereen at 71 percent. If he can stay healthy this year, big things could be ahead.

Marshawn Lynch had a mere 52 percent huge/big game rate. He was just stable, game after game. A similar type of guy – lots of work on the ground but not a lot of help through the air – is Alfred Morris. How shocking is it to see that hie 15+ point game percentage was 13 percent? Not only did Morris fail to have one huge game (20 points) – he was the only runner in football in the top-32 in points that didn't join the club – he only had two games of 15 points. Mr. Blah he was with eight average games. Since he didn't catch passes he also had five disaster outings. Not good. That was the same total of disaster games as Lynch. Three others also had five disaster games but still finished in the top-20 in fantasy points at the position: Giovani Bernard, Danny Woodhead and Fred Jackson

Who were the most hit or miss options at RB among the top-20 point producers? Two backs had seven disaster games. They were both backs that were in timeshare situations, so it figures there were weeks when they weren't heavily leaned on or overly productive. The two men are Pierre Thomas and Joique Bell

Frank Gore was the only back in the top-20, other than Morris, who had a 15+ point percentage under 30 percent. 

Trent Richardson had one huge game and 10 disasters. He was also average four times. Woof. 

Slide 4 of 5 Fantasy Football - Consistency Rankings | Slide - 4 FantasyAlarm.com
# Player Pts Avg 20 & Up 15-20 10 – 14.9 Under 10 Games Games 15+ %
1 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 305.2 21.8 7 2 1 4 14 0.64
2 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 299.2 23.02 6 4 1 2 13 0.77
3 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 291.3 19.42 5 6 4 0 15 0.73
4 Green, A.J. CIN WR 290.5 19.37 6 3 5 1 15 0.60
5 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 289.7 19.31 6 3 5 1 15 0.60
6 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 286.1 19.07 7 2 4 2 15 0.60
7 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 274.6 18.31 4 5 2 4 15 0.60
8 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 270.5 18.03 4 4 3 4 15 0.53
9 Decker, Eric DEN WR 269.1 17.94 5 2 3 5 15 0.47
10 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 268.8 17.92 7 2 2 4 15 0.60
11 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 267.9 17.86 5 3 6 1 15 0.53
12 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 263.6 17.57 6 1 3 5 15 0.47
13 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 238.3 15.89 4 4 4 3 15 0.53
14 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 234.9 15.66 4 2 4 5 15 0.40
15 Edelman, Julian NEP WR 234.2 15.61 5 2 3 5 15 0.47
16 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 220.9 14.73 4 3 3 5 15 0.47
17 Boldin, Anquan SFO WR 215 14.33 3 4 2 6 15 0.47
18 Welker, Wes DEN WR 210.8 16.22 3 5 1 3 12 0.67
19 Allen, Keenan SDC WR 209.7 14.98 5 2 3 5 15 0.47
20 Wright, Kendall TEN WR 203.9 13.59 2 3 6 4 15 0.33
21 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 198.1 13.21 2 3 5 5 15 0.33
22 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 196.8 14.06 2 3 3 6 14 0.36
23 Hartline, Brian MIA WR 195.8 13.05 2 2 7 4 15 0.27
24 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 194.4 12.96 3 3 0 9 15 0.40
25 Douglas, Harry ATL WR 190.9 12.73 3 1 5 6 15 0.27
26 Colston, Marques NOS WR 186.6 13.33 3 2 4 5 14 0.36
27 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 186.3 12.42 2 2 6 5 15 0.27
28 Wallace, Mike MIA WR 185.8 12.39 4 1 2 8 15 0.33
29 Cooper, Riley PHI WR 177.4 11.83 3 3 1 8 15 0.40
30 Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR 176.9 11.79 1 5 2 7 15 0.40
31 Jones, Marvin CIN WR 171.6 11.44 1 4 3 7 15 0.33
32 Jennings, Greg MIN WR 163 11.64 3 0 3 8 14 0.21
33 Smith, Steve CAR WR 162.5 10.83 0 3 6 6 15 0.20
34 Washington, Nate TEN WR 162 10.8 2 1 2 10 15 0.20
35 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 161.7 12.44 1 5 2 5 13 0.46
36 Tate, Golden SEA WR 159.8 10.65 2 2 2 9 15 0.27
37 Streater, Rod OAK WR 159.5 10.63 2 0 4 9 15 0.13
38 Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 158.4 10.56 0 3 5 7 15 0.20
39 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 154.3 10.29 0 3 4 8 15 0.20
40 Cotchery, Jerricho PIT WR 154.2 10.28 2 1 3 9 15 0.20
41 Jones, James GBP WR 148.6 11.43 2 2 3 6 13 0.31
42 Royal, Eddie SDC WR 146.1 10.44 1 3 1 9 14 0.29
43 Williams, Terrance DAL WR 145.1 9.67 1 1 4 9 15 0.13
44 LaFell, Brandon CAR WR 143.2 9.55 2 1 2 10 15 0.20
45 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR 138.6 9.9 1 2 3 8 14 0.21

WIDE RECEIVERS

Brandon Marshall tied Calvin Johnson for the position lead with seven huge games. Don't forget about Andre Johnson who also had seven games of at least 20 points. Among the top-10 at the position in total points the only two who didn't record at least five huge games were Alshon Jeffery and Dez Bryant – they had four a piece. 

Antonio Brown caught five passes every week last season. That's a good season that he's the only receiver on the list without a game in the single-digits. Hell, Calvin Johnson had four of those. A.J. Green, Pierre Garcon and Demaryius Thomas had only one such game and Josh Gordon has two. Sum that up and Gordon, Brown, Green and Thomas had as many disaster outings as Calving Johnson. You sure he should be the #1 wideout off the board this year? 

Anquan Boldin had the 17th most points of any wideout. It was a lot of peaks and valleys though. Boldin was the only wideout in the top-20 in total points who had six games considered disasters. 

Mr. Average could have been Kendall Wright with six average games (what an ingenious statement). Pierre Garcon also matched that number of 10-14.9 point games. However, the leader was a guy that no one wants to draft for the very reason that he's looked at by all as average. Brian Hartline had seven games classified as average, the most in the NFL.

The only wideout in the top-25 in total points who didn’t have one average game – 10 to 14.9 points – was T.Y. Hilton. Man was he all over the map. Consistency was not his thing. Hilton owns the dubious distinction of owning nine games considered disasters. He's the only receiver in the top-30 who can make that claim. 

By the way, Gordon led the way with a 73 percent percentage in huge/big games. If you drop down the list a bit to #18 overall you will find Wes Welker who missed multiple games due to injury. His percentage was 67 percent which was the third best mark in football. Don't sleep on him. 

Slide 5 of 5 Fantasy Football - Consistency Rankings | Slide - 5 FantasyAlarm.com
# Player Pts Avg 15 & Up 11 – 15 7 – 10.9 Under 7 Games Games11+ %
1 Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 285.4 19.03 9 2 2 2 15 0.73
2 Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 209.3 13.95 6 3 2 4 15 0.60
3 Thomas, Julius DEN TE 207.2 15.94 6 4 2 1 13 0.77
4 Cameron, Jordan CLE TE 201.8 14.41 5 3 2 4 14 0.57
5 Davis, Vernon SFO TE 201.5 14.39 6 2 3 3 14 0.57
6 Witten, Jason DAL TE 180.6 12.04 5 1 4 5 15 0.40
7 Clay, Charles MIA TE 180.1 12.01 5 2 4 4 15 0.47
8 Gates, Antonio SDC TE 175.1 11.67 4 2 5 4 15 0.40
9 Olsen, Greg CAR TE 174.4 11.63 3 8 2 2 15 0.73
10 Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 168.4 11.23 3 4 4 4 15 0.47
11 Walker, Delanie TEN TE 147.2 10.51 3 1 7 3 14 0.29
12 Fleener, Coby IND TE 137.3 9.15 4 2 3 6 15 0.40
13 Cook, Jared STL TE 134.1 8.94 2 1 5 7 15 0.20
14 Graham, Garrett HOU TE 133.5 10.27 3 2 2 6 13 0.38
15 Wright, Tim TBB TE 124.3 8.29 5 0 1 8 14 0.36
16 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 122.2 17.46 5 0 0 2 7 0.71
17 Chandler, Scott BUF TE 122 8.13 1 2 4 8 15 0.20
18 Myers, Brandon NYG TE 120.3 8.02 2 3 2 8 15 0.33
19 Miller, Heath PIT TE 119.6 9.2 1 3 5 4 13 0.31
20 Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE 116.1 8.29 1 2 5 6 14 0.21

 

 

TIGHT END

Jimmy Graham is in a class by himself. Duh.

Rob Gronkowski was just behind Graham in huge/big games. Graham had a 73 percent mark, Gronk was at 71 percent. The only other tight end coming to the 70 percent party was none other than Greg Olsen who tied Graham with a 73 percent mark. Of course, Graham had two games in the 11-15 point range while Olsen had eight so we know which guy was the high end producer and it was the guy from New Orleans.

Showing the hit or miss nature of the tight end position, there were four tight ends in the top-10 overall in terms of fantasy points who weren't able to record a huge or big game even half the time: Jason Witten, Charles Clay, Antonio Gates and Martellus Bennett. Forty percent of the top-10. This is one of the reasons that many refuse to reach on tight ends. There's a vast middle ground after the elites are off the board. 

Delaine Walker was Mr. Average with seven average outings in 14 games. Yep, that's average. 

Tim Wright was arguably the least consistent, or at the very least in the discussion for the most frustrating. Sure he had the 15th most fantasy points, but eight times he was held to a disaster outing. He also had five huge efforts meaning he was big/average only one time. Feast or famine was the Bucs' tight end last season. 


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