Everything needs context. Six. If that's your height as a fella you're average. If that's the number of beers in your cooler on a fishing trip you're psyched. If that's the number of points your RB1 scores in a week your distraught. Context is everything. In this ADP piece Ray Flowers will compare players are the same position, look at their ADP, and he will attempt to make the case that perhaps the fella that has less “heat” behind him might just be the better option.
Which players, at the difference sites, have different ADP values? Let's explore.
The default scoring setup will also be PPR.
* Note, I'm not comparing the two QBs directly as I will be comparing players directly at the other positions.
Robert Griffin III 78.3 (FFC), 67.0 (MFL), 76.2 (NFFC)
#8 in FFC, #8 in MFL, #7 in NFFC – those are the respective spots that RGIII is being taken at the quarterback position. I think it's fair to posit a top-10 QB finish from Griffin. After all, take a look at his weapons: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and Alfred Morris. Not many teams can boast a foursome that can compete with that. Why the concern? (1) DJax is often hurt, isn't tough, and has only had one standout season in his career. (2) Reed seems to be injury prone and concussions are a big concern with him. (3) Morris may or may not be a great fit for the new blocking scheme. (4) Not everyone is impressed with how RGIII looks right now. From ESPN's Mike Reiss. “One of my biggest takeaways from Patriots-Redskins joint practices was surprise that Robert Griffin III didn’t look like the best quarterback on his own team. In fact, I thought Kirk Cousinswas better than him...” (5) Injuries and missed games have haunted Robert a bit, and the result has been two seasons without 3,250 yards passing, and average of 18 touchdowns, nine interceptions and three fumbles. Immense talent, but not the lock that some seem to think he is.
Alex Smith 160.5 (FFC), 160.5 (MFL), 131.2 (NFFC)
Limited. Period. Still, a really good real world QB, an a fair fantasy option as well. Hard to think he's better than last season but that still makes him a strong second quarterback. In the SiriusXM Host League last season Smith recorded the 13th most points at the quarterback position and per week he outscored Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick. One overlooked factor in his game last season was his worth with his legs: 431 yards and on scores. In a traditional setup 431 rushing yards gets you 43.1 points. Do you know how many passing yards you would need to equal that mark? Try (based on one point per 20 yards). Try 862 passing yards. Still, Smith is limited by his arm and the lack of weapons to throw the ball to out wide. If Jamaal Charles were to go down it might get ugly.
Pretty much a toss up with these two heading into the middle of August. That seem right? T-Rich looked abysmal last season. Not using that term flippantly either. He looked lost, admitting he couldn't understand the playbook. What? A guy plays football for 20 years and he can't figure out the X's and O's? That inspire confidence in you? Me neither. He tiptoed at the line and that had nothing to do with the playbook. He seemed to have lost his burst and wiggle. Completely. It was one of the most disappointing seasons for a healthy by a running back in recent memory (he was a first round pick in nearly all leagues last season).
Mathews on the other hand ran for 1,255 yards. That was two less than Marshawn Lynch and 77 more than Eddie Lacy. Anyone notice that? Anyone note that he gutted out 16 games as well for the Chargers? How about that his 4.4 YPC mark was better than Fred Jackson (4.3), Knowshon Moreno (4.3), Marshawn Lynch (4.1), Eddie Lacy (4.1), Giovani Bernard (4.1) and Frank Gore (4.1)? Sure Danny Woodhead is around to siphon off third down work, and the club added Donald Brown, but really, didn't last season earn Mathews at least a wee bit of separation to place him ahead of Richardson whose game film looked atrocious?
I'm not drafting Rice, just not, after his disgraceful off the field actions. He's also suspended for the first two weeks, and that also cuts into his fantasy value. Another strike against him is the presence of Bernard Pierce who appears hungry (he lost weight and came into shape in great shape). There's also the fact that Rice stunk last year. Blame added weight, poor blocking, a bad scheme, age... the results were horrible: 3.1 YPC, 660 rushing yards and four scores. How many runners have All-Pro type of efforts for four years then fall completely off the map only to recover their previous glory at the running back position? The answer is not many. Rice still caught 58 passes, a 5th straight year of at least that many receptions, but there wasn't one single aspect of his game last year that was up to snuff. Not one.
Bell was fantastic last season for the Lions. Sure he has to share touches with Reggie Bush, but he can catch the football, run the football and seems pretty much locked in as the goaline back for the Lions. Bell scored eight times on the ground while rushing for 650 yards. He added a dynamic in the passing game catching 53 passes for 547 yards. So ask yourself this. How many backs in football had 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards, 650 rushing yards and scored eight times in 2013? The answer is six: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard, Knowshon Moreno and Bell. Even in a RBBC backfield last season Bell was still more effective than Rice. He's younger, in a more explosive offense, and appears to be ascending rather the declining.