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03 Aug

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2014 Fantasy Football ADP Report: August 11th

A couple of times a week the Oracle looks into ADP numbers. In this report he compares players at the same position to one another. Who is the better value?

Slide 1 of 2 2014 Fantasy Football ADP Report: August 11th  | Slide - 1 FantasyAlarm.com

Everything needs context. Six. If that's your height as a fella you're average. If that's the number of beers in your cooler on a fishing trip you're psyched. If that's the number of points your RB1 scores in a week your distraught. Context is everything. In this ADP piece Ray Flowers will compare players are the same position, look at their ADP, and he will attempt to make the case that perhaps the fella that has less “heat” behind him might just be the better option.

DIFFERING VALUES

Which players, at the difference sites, have different ADP values? Let's explore.

* Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC)
* National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC)
* MyFantasyLeague (MFL)

The default scoring setup will also be PPR.

QUARTERBACK
* Note, I'm not comparing the two QBs directly as I will be comparing players directly at the other positions.

Robert Griffin III 78.3 (FFC), 67.0 (MFL), 76.2 (NFFC)
#8 in FFC, #8 in MFL, #7 in NFFC – those are the respective spots that RGIII is being taken at the quarterback position. I think it's fair to posit a top-10 QB finish from Griffin. After all, take a look at his weapons: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and Alfred Morris. Not many teams can boast a foursome that can compete with that. Why the concern? (1) DJax is often hurt, isn't tough, and has only had one standout season in his career. (2) Reed seems to be injury prone and concussions are a big concern with him. (3) Morris may or may not be a great fit for the new blocking scheme. (4) Not everyone is impressed with how RGIII looks right now. From ESPN's Mike Reiss. “One of my biggest takeaways from Patriots-Redskins joint practices was surprise that Robert Griffin III didn’t look like the best quarterback on his own team. In fact, I thought Kirk Cousinswas better than him...” (5) Injuries and missed games have haunted Robert a bit, and the result has been two seasons without 3,250 yards passing, and average of 18 touchdowns, nine interceptions and three fumbles. Immense talent, but not the lock that some seem to think he is.

Alex Smith 160.5 (FFC), 160.5 (MFL), 131.2 (NFFC)
Limited. Period. Still, a really good real world QB, an a fair fantasy option as well. Hard to think he's better than last season but that still makes him a strong second quarterback. In the SiriusXM Host League last season Smith recorded the 13th most points at the quarterback position and per week he outscored Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick. One overlooked factor in his game last season was his worth with his legs: 431 yards and on scores. In a traditional setup 431 rushing yards gets you 43.1 points. Do you know how many passing yards you would need to equal that mark? Try (based on one point per 20 yards). Try 862 passing yards. Still, Smith is limited by his arm and the lack of weapons to throw the ball to out wide. If Jamaal Charles were to go down it might get ugly.

RUNNING BACK

Trent Richardson 56.3 (FFC), 60.6 (MFL), 53.3 (NFFC)
VS.
Ryan Mathews 48.7 (FFC), 59.2 (MFL), 50.7 (NFFC)

Pretty much a toss up with these two heading into the middle of August. That seem right? T-Rich looked abysmal last season. Not using that term flippantly either. He looked lost, admitting he couldn't understand the playbook. What? A guy plays football for 20 years and he can't figure out the X's and O's? That inspire confidence in you? Me neither. He tiptoed at the line and that had nothing to do with the playbook. He seemed to have lost his burst and wiggle. Completely. It was one of the most disappointing seasons for a healthy by a running back in recent memory (he was a first round pick in nearly all leagues last season).

Mathews on the other hand ran for 1,255 yards. That was two less than Marshawn Lynch and 77 more than Eddie Lacy. Anyone notice that? Anyone note that he gutted out 16 games as well for the Chargers? How about that his 4.4 YPC mark was better than Fred Jackson (4.3), Knowshon Moreno (4.3), Marshawn Lynch (4.1), Eddie Lacy (4.1), Giovani Bernard (4.1) and Frank Gore (4.1)? Sure Danny Woodhead is around to siphon off third down work, and the club added Donald Brown, but really, didn't last season earn Mathews at least a wee bit of separation to place him ahead of Richardson whose game film looked atrocious?

Ray Rice 54.2 (FFC), 71.4 (MFL), 60.1 (NFFC)
VS.
Joique Bell 51.9 (FFC), 76.5 (MFL), 57.2 (NFFC)

I'm not drafting Rice, just not, after his disgraceful off the field actions. He's also suspended for the first two weeks, and that also cuts into his fantasy value. Another strike against him is the presence of Bernard Pierce who appears hungry (he lost weight and came into shape in great shape). There's also the fact that Rice stunk last year. Blame added weight, poor blocking, a bad scheme, age... the results were horrible: 3.1 YPC, 660 rushing yards and four scores. How many runners have All-Pro type of efforts for four years then fall completely off the map only to recover their previous glory at the running back position? The answer is not many. Rice still caught 58 passes, a 5th straight year of at least that many receptions, but there wasn't one single aspect of his game last year that was up to snuff. Not one.

Bell was fantastic last season for the Lions. Sure he has to share touches with Reggie Bush, but he can catch the football, run the football and seems pretty much locked in as the goaline back for the Lions. Bell scored eight times on the ground while rushing for 650 yards. He added a dynamic in the passing game catching 53 passes for 547 yards. So ask yourself this. How many backs in football had 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards, 650 rushing yards and scored eight times in 2013? The answer is six: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard, Knowshon Moreno and Bell. Even in a RBBC backfield last season Bell was still more effective than Rice. He's younger, in a more explosive offense, and appears to be ascending rather the declining. 

Slide 2 of 2 2014 Fantasy Football ADP Report: August 11th  | Slide - 2 FantasyAlarm.com

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WIDE RECIEVER

Kendall Wright 63.2 (FFC), 66.7 (MFL), 59.4 (NFFC)
VS.
Jeremy Maclin 59.9 (FFC), 73.1 (MFL), 60.9 (NFFC)

 

Maclin's best season was 2010 when he caught 70 balls for 964 yards and 10 scores. In 2011 he missed three games. In 2012 he missed a game. He missed the entire 2013 season meaning only once in five seasons since he was drafted has he played 16 games. Maclin tore his ACL prior to his freshman season at Missouri and then he tore the same ligament again which caused him to miss all of last year. Coming back from the injury twice is a tall task. He'll also not have the benefit of DeSean Jackson on the other side of the field. You tell me, do you think Riley Cooper or Jordan Matthews are striking fear into opponents right now? Those two points – his health and the level of the Eagles' other wideouts – should cause you some pause. 

Wright caught 94 passes last season. That's one more than Dez Bryant and two more than Demaryius Thomas. Wright had 1,079 yards last season. That's more yards than Maclin has ever had. Wright is  healthy and even dropped a few pounds to try and add some quicks this offseason. He'll also be the #1 dog in his offense and he will fill the role that Keenan Allen filled last year in Ken Whisenhunt's offense last year in San Diego. That went pretty well, didn't it? It's more about whether Jake Locker can get it done than Kendall Wright, who owns the separation skills necessary to get open if Locker can just get him the football. 

Marques Colston 70.4 (FFC), 90.0 (MFL), 70.4 (NFFC)
VS.
Brandin Cooks 74.1 (FFC), 91.1 (MFL), 105.3 (NFFC)

Colston always gets it done. Aging and seemingly always hurt, you look up at the end of the season and Drew Brees' #1 wideout is always productive. Each of the past five seasons he's caught at least 70 passes for 940 yards. Last season was the first time he dipped below seven scores in that time (he had five). He's likely to miss a game or two, and there is no monster season in his weary bones, but a repeat of last years effort certainly seems eminently doable with a shot at another 80-1,000-7 season certainly not being out of left field for the top banana in the Saints' passing attack after Jimmy Graham.

Jeff Mans has a Rookie Report on Brandin Cooks that you might want to peruse. Jeff rightly points out the dynamic nature of Cooks with the ball in his hands, but he also notes the lack of size that could be a hindrance in the NFL. Often times people too quickly dismiss that without giving a players lack of size some real consideration. From Jeff's report. “The limitations to his game are obviously in experience and stature. Cooks has only been a WR for four years at this point and thus is a fairly raw route runner. At 5’10” he isn’t going to win any jump balls or box out larger defensive backs. Cooks needs the ball in space to make the big plays that his speed begs for.” Worth a shot in fantasy leagues without question, but those folks drafting him ahead of Colston... just don't get that one. 

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen 83.0 (FFC), 93.5 (MFL), 90.0 (NFFC)
VS.
Dennis Pitta 88.3 (FFC), 91.6 (MFL), 86.4 (NFFC)

Olsen might be he only reliable option that Cam Newton has to throw to this season. In two seasons with the Panthers he's caught 69 and 73 passes for 843 and 816 yards. He's also scored at least five times in each of the past six seasons. Truth is, there aren't many at this position that are more consistent. Never had a 850 yards season or 75 receptions though, and only once has he scored more than six times (eight back in 2009). 

Pitta had his 2013 ruined by injury to his hip. He's at 100 percent and should be a focal point of a Ravens offense that is guided by noted tight end lover Gary Kubiak. Pitta will be slotted out wide on occasion, and he might even operate out of the backfield every now and again. He's going to be heavily involved in the Ravens weekly plan, count on it. Pitta was ascending in 2012 (61-669-7) before injury struck, but now that he's healthy, and again in a great offensive setup for the tight end, it wouldn't be a surprise at all if he had his best season to date as an athletic, difference making option at the tight end position. 

 


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