2014 Fantasy Football ADP Report: August 7th
Intro: ADP matters, at least if you're trying to take the pulse of the fantasy football community. Ray Flowers takes a look at some interesting ADP values for NFL players.
Average Draft position data can give you insights in to how the average fella or lady (let's not be sexist), might play the draft. As such, it's important to familiarize yourself with what the draft community is thinking about players. Ray Flowers takes a look at ADP data to try and help give you a leg up against the competition in putting together a winning team in fantasy football 2014.
Which players, at the difference sites, have different ADP values? Let's explore.
The default scoring setup will also be PPR.
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Josh McCown, Buccaneers 154.4 (FFC), 181.6 (MFL), 143.7 (NFFC)
An elite WR? Check in Vincent Jackson. A potentially physically dominating talent on the other side of the field? Check in Mike Evans. A potentially elite RB? Check in Doug Martin. Strong depth at RB? Check in Chris Sims, Mike James and Bobby Rainey. Seems like McCown has some weapons at his disposal. At the same time it remains to be seen how well the RBBC will operate, rookie wideouts rarely excel, and it's uncertain how much production the club will get from the TE position (Tim Wright and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are battling for looks). There's also the fact that McCown, who was selected in the 2002 Entry Draft, had thrown a total of 251 passes from 2008-2012 before last season and that he has a 50:45 TD/INT ratio for his career. He looked fantastic last year with the Bears but were all those teams wrong about him for a decade?
Khiry Robinson, Saints 107.6 (FFC), 142.0 (MFL), 119.4 (NFFC)
Pierre Thomas is the best all-around runner the Saints have. Doesn't mean he's the only guy that should be drafted off the club though. The issue for Robinson, a ferocious runner who can do an awful lot of things very well, is that it's not just Thomas that he has to battle for looks, he also has to worry about Mark Ingram. If one of the other two runners goes down we're cooking with gas with Robinson. If both remain healthy Robinson will likely only be worth using in a bye week situation. Tons of talent and potential, but needs an opening making his draft cost a bit high at the moment.
Andre Williams, Giants 129.1 (FFC), 180.0 (MFL), 225 (NFFC)
Rashad Jennings is the lead back with the Giants and he's a solid all-around talent. However, he's never been asked to be the lead back for a full season. He's also carried the ball 150 times just once in four seasons, so workload has to be an issue (can he hold up?). There's also the widely held belief that the Giants will employee a committee approach. In that model Jennings will handle the majority of the work inside the 20's, but its' possible that Williams will see a lot of short yardage work, i.e. at the goaline. A battering ram of a runner, Williams ran seven times for 48 yards an a score in the HOF game, and you know the Giants brass was paying attention. He may not reach double digit touches each week, but he could be a Mike Tolbert like weapon for the Giants.
Kenny Britt, Rams: 146.6 (FFC), 173.6 (MFL), 185.6 (NFFC)
Just 25 years old, and possessing excellent size (6'3”, 220 lbs), Britt has been a disaster for years. However, he's in a great spot. His with his old coach, Jeff Fischer. He's reportedly got his burst back with his lower half healthy. Third, who do the Rams have at wide receiver? No one that has stood out in any appreciable way for sure. The last time Britt was a fantasy factor was 2010 when he had 775 yards and nine scores, and he shouldn't be someone your counting on, but as your WR4/5 there are certainly many worse options that people are taking shots on.
Andrew Hawkins, Browns: 154.5 (FFC), 190.3(MFL), 193.9 (NFFC)
We don't know how long Josh Gordon will be suspended, but as of now isn't Hawkins a threat to lead the wideouts on the Browns in catches? Nate Burleson is not much more than a guy, and while Miles Austin has been a great player at times, the 30 year old has failed to catch 45 passes in two of the last three years because of recurrent leg injuries. Hawkins stands 5'7” and weighs only 180 lbs, but he could be a Wes Welker Jr. type operating out of the slot. Whether its Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel throwing passes, you have to think that both will look frequently in Andrew's direction.
Marquis Lee, Jaguars: 159.4(FFC), 150.0 (MFL), 220.3 (NFFC)
If you ask me, I think the NFFC has got it right here. As I point at all the time, rookies just don't have a lot of success in the NFL, especially when they are wideouts (NFL Rookie Review). It also doesn't help when Chad Henne is your quarterback or if you're in an offense that is going to try and control the clock on the ground. At the same time, gulp, it looks like Lee might be the Jags #1 or #2 option out wide in Week 1. Justin Blackmon is suspended. Allen Robinson is out for a couple of weeks with a hamstring issue. Cecil Shorts is always seemingly banged up, and right now he too is dealing with a hamstring issue (Grade 2). That means Lee could lead this team in targets, at least early on. A second round selection out of USC, Lee fell on draft day after a poor 2013 effort and because he's not physical enough to out-muscle defenders. For depth, fine. To be your WR4 – that's likely asking too much.
Heath Miller 148.7 (FFC), 174.7 (MFL), 147.2 (NFFC)
Usually folks go with the upside play, but for some reason with Miller they are willing to overlook age, injury and declining skills. Maybe it's because they think that Ben Roethlisberger is his BFF and there aren't a plethora of receiving options with the Steelers? Miller has played nine years in the NFL and didn't exactly look great last year coming back from a catastrophic knee issue. Never a physical freak, Miller is on the cusp of losing the ability to do anything other than catch the ball and be tackled. Over the last four seasons he has one year with more than 58 receptions. He's had one career effort with more than 800 yards. He's scored two or fewer times in three of the last four years. Why are you bothering with him again?
Delaine Walker 156.0 (FFC), 167. (MFL), 143.2 (NFFC)
Walker thinks he can catch a whole lot of passes. Just ask him. “I’m looking to catch 80 balls this year.” Some problems with that. Only three tight ends in football caught 80 passes last year (Graham, Gonzalez, Cameron). Second, Walker only had 86 targets last year. Third, Walker has only one season in his career with 30 receptions. In fact, if you add together last years 61 reception effort to the 21 passes he caught in 2012 he barely clears 80 catches. Fourth, Walker has never had 600 yards in a season. Finally, Walker has scored 14 times, including six last year, in eight NFL seasons. The Titans need someone to catch the ball consistently. They need someone to throw it consistently as well (looking at you Jake Locker). Walker's ADP puts him inside the top-15 at the position which is fine, but drafting him as your TE1 comes with certain risk.
How to use the waiver-wire. Some thoughts from the experts.
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