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There are some big names in the report today. You will find Cabrera and Verlander, Jeter and Latos, Pence and Gray. You will also find some names that you may not even know where in the big leagues – looking right at you Mr. Rosales and Mr. Buchanan. Ray Flowers takes a look at the BVP data for August 6th, 2014.
* NOTE: The matchups are also generated based on Batter vs. Pitcher data. Just because a player is not listed does not mean that he is a bad or good play. The players listed below are mentioned merely because of the BVP data for the matchup.
DISH DIAMONDS – The Best Hitting Matchups of the Day
Miguel Cabrera has nine hits against Chris Capuano leading to a .391 average. He's blasted four dingers leading to eight RBIs. Torii Hunter also has nine hits (.429) with one homer and five RBIs.
Aramis Ramirez has seven hits, including two big flies, in 18 at-bats against Ryan Vogelsong. Gerardo Parra can't match that, but he's still had success against the Giants' righty with a .333 average an a homer in 21 at-bats.
Oh, pick me, pick me!
DISH DISASTERS – Worst Hitting Matchups of the Day
Elvis Andrus has five strikeouts in 15 at-bats against Chris Sale. He's also failed to produce a single hit. Not one. How crazy is that? His awfulness somewhat lets Shin-Soo Choo off the hook. At least he has a hit in 12 at-bats (six Ks).
Hunter Pence tore up the Mets over the weekend, but he's never hit well against Yovani Gallardo. In 31 at-bats Pence has hit .226 with no homers and nine whiffs. Advantage Gallardo. Pablo Sandoval has also struggled with a .111 average and five strikeouts over 18 at-bats. Advantage Gallardo.
Mark Teixeira has three hits in 31 at-bats against Justin Verlander. He's also struck out 10 times in a matchup he loses in. The incredibly hot Brett Gardner also struggles in the Big V matchup (oddly sexual that sounded). Gardner has three hits in 16 at-bats (.188). Jacoby Ellsbury isn't very good either with two hits in 25 at-bats (.227) and he is only 1-for-2 in the steals column.
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MOUND MAVENS – Starting Pitchers to Target
David Buchanan is taking the starting spot of Cliff Lee in the Phillies matchup with the Astros. David last threw a big league pitch July 10th, but over his last six outings he went 4-2 while allowing three or fewer earned runs in each start. The Astros come in at 25th against righties according to OPS, so the matchup isn't a horrible one for the righty.
Wei-Yin Chen has won each of his last five starts as he's allowed three or fewer runs each time out including just one run over his last two outings. Chen has also walked a mere three batters in his last four outings. He's been solid in nine road starts this season with a 3.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, not to mention a 6-1 record. He face the Jays in Toronto.
Doug Fister at home against the Mets. Sign me up. In 15 starts this season he's never walked more than two batters, he's allowed more than three earned runs only twice, and he's picked up a “W” in four of his last five outings four of which have gone at least seven innings.
What do you think it is?
Yovani Gallardo has allowed only eight hits, one walk and no runs over his last two outings. Yeah, he's locked in. The last time he faced the Giants he allowed one run over six innings and in nine career matchups he's 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Only has two wins at home this season though in 12 starts.
Sonny Gray is the reigning AL Pitcher of the Month (5-0, 1.03 ERA, 31 Ks in 35 IP). He faces the Rays at home. In 13 home starts he has a 2.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and when he faced the club from Florida back on May 22nd he held them to one run over eight innings.
Danny Salazar faces the Reds at home. In three starts since being recalled he's struck out 17 batters in 18 innings with a 2.00 ERA. More heartening is the fact that he's walked only six batters. We know the drill at this point. He could pitch a 3-hitter or fail to make it out of the third inning. The Reds are 26th in baseball in OPS against righties and they are 29th in road OPS.
MOUND MESSES – Starting Pitchers to Avoid
Jake Arrieta pitches in Colorado. The Rockies have a home OPS of .877 and they are second in OPS against righties this season regardless of location. He's been stupendous, Arrieta has, but how can you start him in that environment? I'm not calling you crazy if you do, but just know that the odds say to pass.
Dan Haren faces the Angels in Dodger Stadium. His ERA has gone from 4.06 to 4.76 over his last five starts as he's allowed six homers.
Drew Hutchison pitches at home against the Oriole. In eight home starts he is 2-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.
Mat Latos is at home against the Indians. On the year Latos has a 3.07 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across nine starts. He's also allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his nine starts and only twice has he allowed more than three earned runs. Might be wise to keep an eye on the walks – he's got four in each of his last two outings, and the Indians are third in baseball in OPS against righties
Shelby Miller pitches at home against the Red Sox. Though he's looked much better his last two starts – four earned runs and nary a walk – he's still posted a 4.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 11 home outings and his ERA since the start of July is 4.35 while his WHIP is 1.32.
Matt Shoemaker takes to the road to face the Dodgers. He's only thrown 30.2 innings on the road this season, but that scary 6.16 ERA and six homers allowed is blahtastic. The Dodgers are also 6th in baseball in ERA against righties on the bump.
Justin Verlander has been better of late with 3-straight quality starts. He's still the holder of a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP on the road this season and the last time he had more than five strikeouts in a game was back on June 27th. He faces the Yankees in New York.
Ryan Vogelsong tossed a complete game, one run effort last time out against the Mets. His previous nine innings he allowed 19 hits and eight runs (seven earned). He goes to Milwaukee Wednesday. He's posted a sickening 6.05 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 41.2 career innings against he Mets, and in 10 road starts on the year his ratios are similarly poor (4.70 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).
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