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Daily Trends: Weekend Edition, Wk.10

Which fellas have the best and worst matchups for the weekend? Ray Flowers delves into the numbers to help you find out.

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It's the weekend and it's totally time to kick your feet up, swig a beer, ignore your wife and kids (don't really mean that – well maybe), and enjoy some sports. To that end Ray Flowers has broken down the BVP data for those of you out there with questions about who to start on Saturday and Sunday in Major League Baseball.

Note: This article is being written on Friday. Make sure you check the injury reports and lineups for the weekend before blindly setting your lineup based simply on this piece.   


DISH DIAMONDS – The Best Hitting Matchups of the Day
Pedro Alvarez has hit .375 with a bomb and four RBIs in 16 at-bats against Matt Garza. Jose Tabata has also done well batting .438 over 16 at-bats, and lo an behold Clint Barmes has hit two homers with six RBIs in 15 at-bats.

Miguel Cabrera smashes the pelota to the tune of a .476 batting average against Jon Lester. Besides that number just being shocking, it's in 21 at-bats, there's also this: Torii Hunter has been even better batting .520 in 25 at-bats. Then there is this: Victor Martinez is batting .438 in 16 at-bats. Rounding out the Tigers that beat around Lester there is Rajai Davis who has hit .289 while stealing seven bags over 41 plate appearances.

Robinson Cano is hitting his customary .333 in 21 at-bats against Alex Cobb but there is also this: he has three homers and six RBIs.

Starlin Castro has hit .333 with a homer in 24 at-bats against Randy Wolf. How did Wolf have so much success in his last outing? Shocking.

Andre Ethier is a world beater against Jhoulys Chacin. He's not only batting .385 with a homer but he also has a .556 OBP over 36 plate appearances thanks to 10 walks. Adrian Gonzalez has also done well in the matchup hitting .463 with three RBIs over 13 at-bats.

Joe Mauer is batting .269. He's a career .320 hitter. How much longer can this go on? Perhaps the turnaround starts with Scott Feldman who he's hit .333 with a homer and five RBIs against in 18 at-bats?

A lot of times we have to worry about sample size. Not in this case. Jhonny Peralta has 84 at-bats against Mark Buehrle. He's hit .298 with a .809 OPS as he's lifted two balls into the seats with 10 RBIs.

I'm sorry, but this is just hilarious.

A.J. Pierzynski is batting .333 with a homer and seven RBIs over 33 at-bats against the struggling Max Scherzer. David Ortiz is even better though as he's hit a whopping .471 with three homers and six RBIs over 17 at-bats.

Drew Stubbs plays in Colorado against Zack Greinke. In the matchup he's struck out seven times, but in a truly odd twist he's produced six hits in the other seven at-bats leading to a .429 average over the 14 at-bats.  

Ruben Tejada has hit .381 against Tim Hudson in 21 at-bats. Lucas Duda has hit .346 with a homer in 26 at-bats.

Rickie Weeks has hit .368 against Edison Volquez in his career. He's also gone deep twice in 19 at-bats.  Other Brewers have had success too. Carlos Gomez is batting .333 with three solo homers in 21at-bats. Ryan Braun is batting .353 with a homer and five steals over 39 plate appearances.

DISH DISASTERS – Worst Hitting Matchups of the Day

Michael Cuddyer has struck out in 25 percent of his 40 at-bats against Zack Greinke. He's also hit .250 with just one homer an a .302 OBP over 42 plate appearances. Still, those numbers are light years beyond the efforts of Justin Morneau (.167 with one RBI over 36 ABs) and Troy Tulowitzki (.211 with seven Ks in 19 ABs). Will the hitters still slumber even though the game is in Colorado where the Rockies have killed it all year?

Kolten Wong (shoulder) isn't at 100 percent so the Cards might have to go with Mark Ellis. Uh oh. In 51 at-bats against Mark Buehrle he's hit .176. Yugly.

Josh Hamilton has one hit in 11 at-bats against Chris Sale. Every batters I'm about to list has one hit, and one hit only, against Sale. Listed with their at-bat totals: Albert Pujols (nine), Howie Kendrick (seven), Mike Trout (right), Luis Jimenez (six). Chris Iannetta, Hank Congar and Erick Aybar are a combined 0-for-12.

Ian Kinsler is about the only Tiger who doesn't hit Jon Lester. He's got just seven hits in 29 at-bats leading to a .241 average and .313 OBP.

Aramis Ramirez has never quite figured out Edinson Volquez. In 28 at-bats he's only struck out twice, but he's also hitting a mere .250 with a .300 OBP. Pretty much the same type of effort from Jonathan Lucroy who is batting .238 with a .304 OBP over 23 plate appearances. Both of those guys kill what Jean Segura has done though which is nothing. He's a fat 0-for-11 in the matchup.

Justin Smoak has only eight at-bats against Alex Cobb but they have not been remotely productive: no hits, five Ks.

Neil Walker has had a strong season but he's only hit .143 with six Ks in 14 at-bats against Matt Garza.

David Wright has three homers and eight RBIs against Tim Hudson. Of course he's done that over 77 at-bats with a .234/.314/.377 slash line. David Murphy also hasn't figured out the righty hitting .227 with a .638 OPS over 26 plate appearances.

MOUND MAVENS – Starting Pitchers to Target

Mark Buehrle cannot keep this up, yet there it is. He's 10-1 with a 2.10 ERA. He's from Missouri so he will be facing his hometown team, the Cardinals, in Toronto. The Cards come in at 3rd from the bottom with a .634 OPS against leftie this season and they've also hit the fewest homers in the game – five in 529 at-bats.

Alex Cobb has a 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHP through six starts. He's also sporting a 3.2 K/BB ratio and he's allowed only three homers all year. He pitches at home against the Mariners and for his career he's been very good at home (14-8, 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP with 184 Ks over 201.2 innings).

I need my beer dammit.

Bartolo Colon pitches in San Francisco. He's won each of his last three starts while going at least seven innings in each outing. In that time he's only walked four batters while striking out 19 in 22.1 innings. He's locked in right now... even if he's actually impossible to trust.

Chris Sale versus current Angels: 6-for-71, a .115 average. Chris Sale has allowed a total of four hits over his last 25 innings pitched. Nuff said.

Alfredo Simon faces a Phillies team he shut out over 7.2 innings back on May 16th. He's also got a 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season and he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four outings. Lefties are also batting just .239 against him, and we know the Phillies are mostly about lefties.

MOUND MESSES – Starting Pitchers to Avoid

Jhoulys Chacin stinks. He's lost all four of his decisions this year. He's failed to go six innings in any of his last three starts. He faces the Dodgers in Colorado.

Danny Duffy faces a Yankees team that has the 18th best OPS against lefties this year. Still, in two starts against the Yankees he has a 10.80 ERA. He's also allowed at least five earned runs in two of his last three starts, even if he's allowed one or fewer runs in four of his last six. There's just too much volatility to trust right now.

Jon Lester has allowed a truly amazing slash line of .358/.427/.579 to the entire current roster of the Tigers which also includes six homers in 159 at-bats. Yikes.

David Phelps pitches in Kansas City. He's posted a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season. He's lost his last three games. Over his last two outings he's permitted 11 runs (nine earned). None of the spells good things.

Max Scherzer has a start at home against the Red Sox. In nine previous outings against the Sox he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He's also allowed 29 hits and 16 runs over his last 19.2 innings this season.

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Don't forget to bookmark the following three sources to check daily after you read this piece.

Fantasy Alarm Lineups

Batter Versus Pitcher
Daily Projections – For every single day of the season.


DISH DIAMONDS – The Best Hitting Matchups of the Day
Elvis Andrus has six hits in 13 at-bats versus Justin Masterson. Oddly, in the seven at-bats he hasn't gotten a base knock he's struck out six times.

Michael Bourn (.417 with two steals in 12 ABs) and Asdrubal Cabrera (.385 with two RBIs in 13 ABs) have had success against Joe Saunders. And it's Joe Saunders for goodness sakes.

Ryan Braun is at .444-1-5 over 18 at-bats against Charlie Morton. Aramis Ramirez has hit .353 over 17 at-bats.

Marlon Byrd has hit .389 with two bombs and seven RBIs over 18 at-bats against Homer Bailey. Ben Revere is hitting .556 with two steals in nine at-bats.

David DeJesus has had some surprising success against Felix Hernandez. In 34 at-bats he's hit .324 with a .378 OBP.

Alex Gordon has only eight at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda but he's produced six hits.

Ian Kinsler has hit .421 with four homers, two steals, and nine RBIs over 42 plate appearances against John Lackey. That's some fine hitting. Victor Martinez is a .400 hitter in the matchup (30 ABs) as Rajai Davis has hit .387 while stealing four bags over 31 at-bats

Nick Markakis has two homers, seven RBIs an a .417 average against Scott Kazmir in 24 at-bats. He's also produced a run in his last five games and 16 hits in his last 10 games.

Miguel Montero, i.e. the Superstar, against Aaron Harang. In 18 at-bats he's hit .556 with a homer.


Alexei Ramirez has hit .389 with  three RBIs over 18 at-bats against C.J. Wilson.

Hanley Ramirez has hit .381 with a 1.194 OPS against Jorge De La Rosa in 25 plate appearances. Matt Kemp is batting .379 with three homers and eight RBIs over 29 at-bats while Adrian Gonzalez is at .382-3-10 in 34 at-bats. The game is in Colorado.

DISH DISASTERS – Worst Hitting Matchups of the Day

Pedro Alvarez can't hit Yovani Gallardo. That comes from a look at his .077 average and 11 Ks in 26 at-bats. Neil Walker also doesn't impress with a .554 OPS over 31 plate appearances. Starling Marte also does nothing with a .188 average and eight Ks over 16 at-bats. But the “winner” is Clint Barmes who has one hit in 20 at-bats.

Nelson Cruz has 20 at-bats against Scott  Kazmir with four hits an a .250 batting average.

Andre Ethier has hit only .158 with one RBI against Jorge De La Rosa over 19 at-bats.

How is Ryan Raburn batting .063 over 16 at-bats against Joe Saunders? Wasn't he supposed to be able to hit lefties?

Alex Rios is having another strong season. Might hit a hiccup Sunday though as he's hit .205 with a .575 OPS against Justin Masterson over 48 plate appearances. Adrian Beltre is also on the warning list with a .158 average over 19 at-bats.

Jean Segura has been hitting pretty well for weeks now, but he's also hit .188 over 16 at-bats against Charlie Morton. Jonathan Lucroy stinks too with one hit in 12 at-bats. Rickie Weeks though is the worst with a .071 mark in 14 at-bats.

Marx Teixeira has six hits in 48 at-bats against James Shields. He's also struck out 15 times while batting .125. Struggles or not for Shields, how can you start Tex? Kelly Johnson has also been a total disaster with a .143 average and eight Ks in 14 at-bats.

Troy Tulowitzki has hit only .234 with 11 Ks in 47 at-bats against Clayton Kershaw. His OPS is .642.

Will Venable has one hit in 15 at-bats against Jordan Zimmermann.

Dayan Viciedo, Gordon Beckham, Alejandro De Aza and Adam Dunn have a combined three hits in 27 at-bats against C.J. Wilson.

This is just.. classy.

Chris Young has two homers against Tim Lincecum but he's also hit .157 with 17 Ks in 51 at-bats. David Wright also hasn't solved the Freak as he's hit .130 with one RBI over 23 at-bats. He's struck out 13 times.

Ben Zobrist cannot hit King Feliz. Just can't. He's batting .107 with 10 Ks in 28 at-bats. That's still better than Matt Joyce who has one hit and five Ks in 15 at-bats. Desmond Jennings is 0-for-7 with four Ks.

MOUND MAVENS – Starting Pitchers to Target

Chris Archer pitches at home against the Mariners. Don't think most have noticed but the guy has allowed a total of three runs over his last four starts. That's good, no? He also has 26 Ks over his last 18 innings. He has a 3.14 ERA in five home starts this year as well.

Collin McHugh faces the Twins in Minnesota. In four road starts this year he has 1.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 32 Ks in 27 innings. He's also worked 12 shutout innings in his last two starts as he's walked two while striking out 13.

Jose Quintana faces the Angels in Anaheim. He did allow five runs in his last outing, though no runs were earned, meaning he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 8-straight starts. He's also posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in seven road starts. The Angels do hit lefties well however (7th best OPS).

Scott Kazmir is a must start. Can't believe I just typed that. Through 12 starts he's got a 2.40 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and better than a 4:1 K/BB ratio. He pitches in Baltimore.

Anibal Sanchez at home versus the Red Sox. Anibal got a win against the Sox back on May 18th as he allowed one earned run over five innings. Over his last five outings Anibal has cut his ERA from 3.54 down to 2.15 and he's got a 2.76 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over five home starts this year.

MOUND MESSES – Starting Pitchers to Avoid

Homer Bailey has been pounded by lefties to the tune of a .351 batting average and .434 OBP. He faces a Phillies team that is led by lefty swingers like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Revere and Brown. Not really a great matchup on paper.

Yovani Gallardo pitches in Pittsburgh. In 22 career starts against the Pirates he's 11-4 with a 2.71 ERA, but look at his work of late. Over his last five starts he's become Marco Estrada allowing eight homers. Here are his numbers over his last six starts: 6.55 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.80 K/BB ratio. Good luck with that.

Jaime Garcia... just stop. Why does anyone want to pitch this guy? He's the definition of average, is always hurt, and he's been blah this year: 5.47 ERA in four starts. Pretty sure he's not going to keep avoiding the walk too (zero walks). He pitches in Toronto against the mashing Blue Jays.

James Shields is undeniably in a funk. Over his last three starts he's allowed 15 runs and 26 hits over 18.1 innings as his ERA has gone up 1.01 runs to 3.68. He's also been hammered for seven homers his last three starts. He allowed five long balls over his first 10 outings. Can't start him against the Yankees at home.

Make sure you tune in to the Fantasy Alarm's Daily Game Show at 6 PM EDT, Monday through Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius210, XM87) as Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster will help you to set your daily lineups.


  • 64x64

    Miguel Enguidanos 07 Jun 14:35 / Reply

    Hi Ray, I forgot to say I have used 108 starts out of 200 after 1/3 of the season

  • 64x64

    Miguel Enguidanos 07 Jun 14:33 / Reply

    Hi Ray, I would like to trade to get either K. Jansen or G. Holland as a reliever. I've got 11 saves with Janssen of Toronto. I tried to trade Buehrle but the owner doesn't trust him...just like you. I would like to offer one of my pitchers to get one of these relievers. My pitchers are CJ Wilson, Latos, G. Cole, Fister, Gallardo, Garza, E. Santana and Cueto. Which pitchers would you offer to get one of these top two relievers? 12 team 5x5 roto. I'm in 2nd place. I'm on top on Ks and Wins.

  • 64x64

    Michael Magid 07 Jun 10:44 / Reply

    Ray, I am considering dropping Hutchinson in order to add Simon. Thoughts? Is Hutch a safe play on Sunday?

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