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Trying something a bit different. I'm going to try and make the correct calls. Hey, you make a ton a day, you can't help but lay some stinkers. Hopefully there's more up than down in today's look at Batter vs. Pitcher data.
DISH DIAMONDS – The Best Hitting Matchups of the Day
Adrian Beltre has hit .353 with a homer, two doubles, and four RBIs in 17 at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez. The Orioles' starter has allowed a mere .235 batting average to lefties this season but righties have had much more success with a .276 mark.
Evan Longoria like to face the righty from the Marlins named Henderson Alvarez. In 12 plate appearances he's hit .600 with a .667 OBP. If that was all there was it would be enough. When you add in that he's gone three times into the seats, with the batted ball mind you, and also driven in six runs it's exciting time. In related news Matt Joyce has has gone 5-for-13. He's nearly hitting .300 against all righties this season (.294). There's more. Desmond Jennings has four hits (two homers) in 10 at-bats and Ben Zobrist has gone 6-for-14 (.429).
DISH DISASTERS – Worst Hitting Matchups of the Day
Michael Brantley has four RBIs against Jake Peavy but he's also struck out five times while batting .211 over 19 at-bats. Asdrubal Cabrera has hit a homer but he's also struck out six times with one RBI an a .250 batting average against Peavy in 20 at-bats.
Chris Davis is batting .167 with a homer and six Ks in 18 at-bats against Joe Saunders. I know, it doesn't make any sense. Neither does Nick Markakis batting .250 with a .526 OPS over 29 plate appearances.
Derek Jeter is a HOFamer. Derek Jeter has never been able to hit Scott Kazmir. Two homers and seven RBIs sound nice, but a .143/.234/.333 slash line over 45 plate appearances tells a different story. Jacoby Ellsbury is also a nobody against Kazmir with a .273/.304./318 slash line over 23 plate appearances. He has no steals or RBIs.
Gotta teach the young-ins how to operate a motor vehicle.
Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval have been hitting very well for the surging Giants. However, neither man has had success against Homer Bailey. Both have one RBI while Sandoval is batting .214 and Pence .143. Both batters have 14 at-bats in the matchup. Buster Posey only has eight at-bats but he's 0-for-8 which is noteworthy.
Jimmy Rollins has a homer and steal against Jordan Zimmerman. He's also hit .200 with a .551 OPS over 26 plate appearances.
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MOUND MAVENS – Starting Pitchers to Target
Gerrit Cole pitches in Petco against the Padres. He's also tossed 3-straight quality starts. Problem with the quality start? His ERA in those three games is 3.93. That's just not very good in this day and age. Still the matchup is a good one, ditto the park.
Jorge De La Rosa has allowed a total of one run in his last three outings. JDL has thrown a quality start in each of his last six outings. JDL has won each of his last six decisions and has six wins in seven starts. He's also pitching at home, and while you think that's bad, it's somehow not been. JDL has a 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five home starts. I really dislike this call in my gut, but the numbers support it.
More dog stories. This one stinks.
Yovani Gallardo has made six starts at home this year and though he only has two wins he's also sporting a 3.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Those numbers are pretty close to his career numbers against the Twins (2.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 41 IP). The Twins are batting .233 on the road with a .664 OPS, a bottom quarter number in baseball.
I don't like him long-term, but Jaime Garcia faces a Royals club that has a .648 OPS against lefties, the 4th worst mark in baseball. Garcia also hasn't walked a batter in three starts with 19 Ks in 19.2 innings. Let's just ignore the four homers in three games for now.
C.J. Wilson is the proud owner of a 3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 69Ks in 76.2 innings. His ratios are a bit higher in five road starts this year (3.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), but he's still pitched pretty well away from home. The Astros are better than you think against lefties hitting .264 with a 725 OPS that is 14th, but Wilson is still a solid start against a team that is 8th in baseball in Ks against lefties.
MOUND MESSES – Starting Pitchers to Avoid
Chase Anderson pitches in Colorado. The Rockies have a .952 homer OPS. Pass on Anderson.
Gavin Floyd has a 1.35 WHIP. That's normal given his career 1.34 mark. Gavin Floyd is 0-2. That's pretty normal too given his 70-72 career record. So what the hell is up with his 2.37 ERA that is more than two runs below his career mark (4.43)? The Mariners aren't a ferocious lineup by any means, but a decade of history says to be nervous, as well as the fact that Floyds' averaged barely six innings a start this season. Oh, and he's not this good.
Dan Haren has a 3.28 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, solid numbers for the Dodgers. However, the homer often bites it. Has for years. It's reared it's ugly head of late as he's allowed six homers in his last four starts. The White Sox come to town and they are one of the top-10 teams in baseball in homers, and Jose Abreu is back in action.
Drew Hutchison has won 3-straight starts, but he's pitching against the Tigers in Detroit Tuesday. He's also allowed four homers in his last two starts while walking six batters. He's also seen a real pullback in the punchouts with six or less in 6-straight starts including an outing last time out that didn't include one.
Ubaldo Jimenez has a 4.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Even if a matchup is favorable right now, how do you start him? Two of his last four outings he's allowed one and zero runs. The other two outings he's allowed 10 runs over nine innings. He's on the road in Texas.
Joe Saunders versus the Orioles. Doesn't that just sound scary off the top? Don't feel like I really need to defend this one, do I? You take the five shutout innings from his last start, I'll take his 3.2 outing in his first turn in the rotation (5 R, 4 ER, 3.2 IP).
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