I'm all about symmetry, and since I looked at, and judged pitchers on Tuesday, you know I had to do the same thing for the hitters to complete the circle. In this piece I'll talk about cold starters at first, second and catcher, while highlighting a productive yet underwhelming first baseman and two outfielders that are making their mark.
Aaron Hill has at one point or another been a star in all the five fantasy categories. Don't know if you know it or not, but here are the best 5x5 numbers he's posted in his career: .302-36-108-103-21. Those are fantasy MVP numbers from a second baseman. Hell, those are league MVP numbers. However, in the last five years he's also had a season of .205-8-43-45-1 if you add together all the “worsts.” He's one of the most maddening players going. With only two steals over his last 136 games, I'm very worried about the steals returning. Seems a good bet to improve on his .255 batting average though (career .291 and .298 the past two years). Also have to think he picks up the homer rate given that his 6.0 percent HR/F ratio is below his 8.4 career mark and that he's hitting a 4-year high 45 percent of batted balls into the air.
The Verdict: Hill is an excellent target in NL-only leagues. Ditto in mixed leagues where his current owner is likely frustrated by his sluggish start. If you own Hill, stay the course.
Ryan Howard had a homer and five RBIs Monday so I figured I should mention him. There, he's mentioned. OK, fine, I'll give some analysis too. He's on pace for 25 homers. He hit 25 homers the last two years over 151 games. He's on pace for about 90 RBIs. He had 98 over his past 151 games. He's hitting .236. Care to guess what he hit over his last 151 games? How about .244. The truth is that Howard has been the same, mildly effective, first baseman since the start of the 2014 season. That's all he is -mildly effective. The K-rate is way up, his OBP the past 198 games is .309 and the SLG is .439. In fact, check it. Since the start of 2012 his slash line is .242/.309/.439. For his career Mark Reynolds numbers are nearly identical: .232/.327/.464. Heck, they are actually better.
The Verdict: A corner infield option in mixed leagues with no appreciable upside. All Howard brings are homers and RBIs at this point an at a rate that is greatly reduced from his prime years.
James Loney is the ideal option if you're looking for a corner infield option in a 15 team league that won't hurt you. In certain instances he might be serviceable in a 12 team mixed league too (likely as an injury fill-in). He's hitting .294, and in this day and age that means something, and is on pace for 80+ RBIs. Again, that will play. Unfortunately he's never hit more than 15 homers in a season and has only 15 homers in his last 208 games. He hits doubles, 44 over those 208 games, but he's never learned to lift the ball effectively to hit the big fly. He also scored a mere 54 runs last season despite appearing in 158 games, and he's on pace to just squeak past that number this season.
The Verdict: Boring is as boring does. He should be relegated to an injury fill-in for mixed leaguers. His real home is in AL-only leagues where he's a decent piece given the moderate cost and low expectations.
A.J. Pollock is one of five outfielders to have six homers and six steals. You might have heard of some of the others: Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gomez, Michael Brantley and Hunter Pence. Those numbers put Pollock just about on a 20/20 pace. Could he be this years Will Venable? Certainly could be. There's always the question about how the D'backs will handle their crowded outfield once Mark Trumbo is healthy, so let's hope they continue to let Pollock play daily in centerfield. It's TBD though. In addition to the homers and steals Pollock is batting .296, but folks may have failed to take note of his solid start due to the 13 RBIs and 21 runs scored he's put up. Pollock has spent 12 games in the leadoff spot, but he's also spent 29 games hitting 7th, 8th or 9th. Hard to drive anyone in, or score a ton, from those spots in the order. If they let him play daily, and bat him in the leadoff role, then we could really be looking at a player for the rest of 2014.
The Verdict: A 5th outfielder option in mixed leagues until the Diamondbacks commit to playing him daily over the long run. The excitement level would grow if he were to hit leadoff.
Wilin Rosario has hit at least 21 homers with 71 RBIs and 63 runs scored the past two years. This season he's on pace for about 14 homers, 60 RBIs and 35 runs scored, not to mention he's hitting only .226. He's about the only guy on the Rockies who hasn't hit. Part of the struggles are his health – he's been sick and injured this season limiting him to just 32 games. As I've noted, and was ignored by many, this is a flawed player. He never walks, 47 free passes for his 286 game career, and the resulting 0.19 BB/K rate is half the league average. A lack of patience renders a player rather ineffective went things are going “right.” Thins aren't going right at the moment. With his BABIP down .070 points at .239 he's doing little offensively. That number should rise, as will his 15 percent line drive rate, but here's the real issue.: for his career he's league average in the fly ball rate. This season, he's well off that moderate pace dropping seven percentage points off his career fly ball mark at 28 percent. If that continues he will have a dismal season based upon expectations.
The Verdict: Rosario could still be a top-10 mixed league catcher the rest of the way. He's well worth rostering in mixed leagues on potential alone, but if you are one of those folks, and I know you're out there, that are in 10 team/1 catcher leagues he's nothing but a luxury until he figures it out.
Michael Saunders sat an watched as Abraham Almonte was run out there relentlessly by the Mariners. To the surprise of no one, other than Lloyd McClendon, Almonte failed. Saunders is finally getting his chance and he's been on his game in May. In 22 games Saunders has hit .321 with a homer, a steal, 14 RBIs and 14 runs scored. Pretty sure he's not going to hit .274 like he currently is, but I'm also confident he will pick up the homer/steal pace considering that, per 500 at-bats for his career that Saunders has averaged 14 homers and 16 steals. Too bad the Mariners didn't read my preseason Player Profile about him until May started.
The Verdict: An excellent addition in AL-only leagues. With a strong month of May buying him some rope, Saunders is also ready to join the 5th outfielder mix in mixed leagues. The average will go down, but as I noted, the power/speed combo should make up for that.