I don't get a lot of things in life. Where did we come from? Where are we going? How does electricity work so that when I flip the switch the lights go on? Why has the government been concealing the presence of aliens on Earth? I could go on, but I fear if I let out my inner conspiracy theorist that I might end up alienating a bunch of my loyal fan base (see what I did there with the play on words? I'm good like that). Something else I don't get in some respects is player valuation. Well I get it, but I think others may struggle with it a bit.
This piece is some of the standard fair you will find anywhere you look on the net, a review of Average Draft Position numbers (thanks to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship for providing the data). However, this report has The Oracle flare you're used to seeing. I'll pull out a handful of players and make the case for why they are being overdrafted. Truthfully, I could probably write an article like this daily until the season starts – the real Opening day not this jacked up March 22nd Australia crap – and not cover everything.
I don't get this one. Perhaps you can help me out. What are you honestly expecting from Michael Wacha (80 ADP) this year? If I said 15 wins, a 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 180 Ks what would you say? I bet only a few of you out there would say that wouldn't be enough. My guess is that 90 percent of you reading those numbers would be very pleased, if not ecstatic, if Wacha produced like that in 2014. What would you say if I told you there was a man with an ADP of 84 that has achieved that level of productivity the past three years, while there is another man who has been that guy the past three years with an ADP of 87? Take a look.
#84: 12 wins, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 177 Ks
#87: 15 wins, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 215 Ks
How anyone could take Wacha ahead of those two men is befuddling to me. Hell, why is Wacha's teammate (Shelby Miller) going off the board 38 picks later than Wacha? Jeez everyone, Miller just had a tired shoulder late last season. There's nothing wrong with his arm.
Michael Cuddyer (116) is being drafted before guys like Martin Prado (124), Shane Victorino (130), Alfonso Soriano (142), hell even Nelson Cruz (146) --- how does that make sense? Maybe you think so. I do not. I know Cuddyer hit .331 to lead the NL, but as I've mentioned before, Cuddyer had never hit .285 before. He's also failed to hit 21 homers in 4-straight seasons, been unable to record 75 runs scored the past three seasons and he's been held to less than 85 RBIs in six of the last seven seasons. Oh yeah, he's also averaged 123 games played the last three years. Not buying it.