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The Oracle: Early ADP Thoughts

Here are some of The Oracle's early thoughts when it comes to current ADP numbers.

Slide 1 of 2 Early ADP Thoughts | Slide - 1 FantasyAlarm.com

I haven't done any Average Draft Position (ADP) work this season, and it's probably time for me to dip my toe into the water that everyone else seems to be swimming in. A few thoughts before I delve into the numbers.

NOTE: Special thanks to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship who the following ADP numbers are taken from.

(1) Use ADP information as a guide, not the gospel. Just because Player X has an ADP of 50 doesn't mean he will be there at pick 50 in your draft. He might go at pick 42, or he might fall to 62. Again, ADP numbers are a guide to give you a handle on what the prevailing train of thought is on any player.

(2) Don't ever, and I mean ever, draft off an ADP list. I've actually seen people do this. Boggles my mind, but it's still what some folks do. If you follow an ADP list then you could easily end up with a dysfunctional roster. Did you pass on the speed guy you needed cause his ADP was lower than the power guys you kept grabbing? Just one example of why you need to disengage from ADP numbers a bit while at the draft table.

(3) Make sure the ADP information you use is accurate (in this respect the NFBC numbers are a source that I personally trust). By that I mean make sure they come from a trusted source. Some sources, and I'm not naming names, often have mock drafts that aren't filled with actual people. If there's a 12 team draft and there are seven humans and five robots in the draft, guess what happens? The robots draft exactly from that sites rankings. That means that the ADP numbers they generate are self fulfilling as the computer picks the players from the ADP, and that “proves” the ADP is accurate. However, is it? Not really. The picks are taken from one source – the ADP rankings of the site – and not from five individual people in our example.

By the way, come on NBC. What is up with this Olympic coverage? Show the fricking events live. It's impossible for me to do my work throughout the day without seeing Olympic results, and I don't know about you, but I hate watching sporting events that I already know the outcome to. Show the events live already, and to take a thought from Twitter - #Emberassing.

Now to the actual ADP talk.

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Searching for answer for the 2014 fantasy baseball season? Turn to a trusted source to enlighten you – Fantasy Alarm – and pick up your very own copy of the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide. After reading the 200 pages of information you will be ready to dominate the competition in the coming season on your way to a fantasy baseball championship.

Slide 2 of 2 Early ADP Thoughts | Slide - 2 FantasyAlarm.com

The top-3: Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt. Not surprising given what I've been seeing. A bit surprised though that Goldschmidt has roundly been anointed as the #3 guy in fantasy for 2014. Do you agree or disagree with that?

For those of you wondering about Chris Davis, here are my thoughts on what to expect from him in 2014 (you can also find a link to the 2014 Draft Guide there).

The first starting pitcher off the board is Clayton Kershaw (6.3 ADP). You know me, I'm just not a fan of going with a starting pitcher that early in a draft, but there it is. The next SP off the board is Yu Darvish at 16.8. That's even more surprising to me, Darvish's ADP, than that of Kershaw. Darvish might lead baseball in strikeouts, but I think folks are embracing the 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from last season as the way it's gonna be with Darvish. Is it? I say maybe not. Darvish had a 83.9 percent left on base rate last season to lead baseball. No chance he repeats that number. There's also at least even money that his WHIP goes up. You don't produce marks as low as he did last season, at least consistently, with a 3.43 BB/9 mark.

Ryan Braun (11.5). I have no problem with that.

Carlos Gomez at 25.1? I do have a problem with that. See his Player Profile.

Another Brewer, let's just hit them all, is Jean Segura (29.2). Way too high. My thoughts as to why that is in his Player Profile.

Stephen Strasburg (34.8) is going off the board right after Adam Wainwright (33.3). I get it, Strasburg has immense talent. I also know this. He has yet to throw 185 innings in a season. Risky to make that guy your top arm and a top-35 overall selection.

Craig Kimbrel is great. The best closer in baseball. Period. But an ADP of 40.1 is just too rich for my blood. Some will make the argument that you get an extra 40 Ks from Kimbrel versus other closers so it's worth dropping that early pick on him but. I'm more of the opinion that if you want to go with a reliever early why not wait until 67.3 to grab Greg Holland?

Look at all the catchers being taken in the top-80: Buster Posey (39.2), Joe Mauer (63.8), Carlos Santana (65.7), Wilin Rosario (69.1), Yadier Molina (69.8), Brian McCann (80). Maybe I'm nuts, but is it really worth taking McCann that early because he's moving to Yankee Stadium? I like McCann, and he's a stable homer bat, but is there much difference between him and Matt Wieters? Not enough to justify the difference in cost if you ask me – 80 for McCann, 98.4 for Wieters.

Big young arms on the hill are being targeted aggressively. Here are some numbers: Michael Wacha (87.4), Gerrit Cole (94.3), Shelby Miller (118.6), Danny Salazar (137.6), Sonny Gray (155.3). To think that someone out there might have Cole, Miller, Salazar and Gray on their roster... HUGE risk, but that is about as talented a foursome as you could ever find.

John Axford (269.1) is lining up as the Indians' closer for 2014. His ERA has been over four and his WHIP about 1.50 the past two years, but he still has a K per inning arm and can get grounders. He also seemed to straighten things out late in the year last season when he posted 11 Ks, walked only three batters and had a 1.74 ERA in 13 outings with the Cardinals. Sounds like a guy to take a shot on to me, especially since his ADP is only a handful of spots head of a guy like LaTroy Hawkins (269.3). By the way, no one seems to be buying that Hawkins will close for the Rockies as Rex Brothers is being taking rounds earlier with an ADP of 222.7.

Finally, here are some stragglers to take note of if they fall in your draft.

Josh Johnson (303.4)
Josh Willingham (307)
Ivan Nova (308.2)
Josh Rutledge (308.9)
Cameron Maybin (314.8)
Nate Jones (333)
Ike Davis (353.5)
Brandon Morrow (367.5)
Justin Ruggiano (377.3)
Chris Young (397.6)
Rickie Weeks (419)
Tyler Clippard (434.5)
Ryan Cook (435)
Sergio Santos  (446.9)
Jason Kubel (481.7)
Trevor Bauer (492)

 

By Ray Flowers

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Searching for answer for the 2014 fantasy baseball season? Turn to a trusted source to enlighten you – Fantasy Alarm – and pick up your very own copy of the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide. After reading the 200 pages of information you will be ready to dominate the competition in the coming season on your way to a fantasy baseball championship.


COMMENTS

  • 64x64

    Jose abreu 10 Feb 23:21 / Reply

    Jose abreu! Adam eaton is also a great speed / runs / average contributor


  • 64x64

    Andrew 10 Feb 16:23 / Reply

    my annual 2 mlb team for u ray....basically instead of owning ind players we draft 2 teams and own all players for thosr teams. my keeper team is the Nats and i (sadly) have to draft one of these remaining teams: cws, min, hou.....my knee-jerk is cws but after sale, is there much to get ecited about. also keep in mind that most days ill prob use a lot of nats for hitters....it is a H to H league if that matters.....thanks ray!


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