Fantasy Baseball Week 8 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 7 (5/23-5/29)

Analysis: Fantasy owners should be aware of the following splits prior to setting their Week 8 lineups:

• The Chicago White Sox have an additional game scheduled this week due to a make-up, bringing their total to eight. While the extra at bats might not seem like much in the long run, it could be the tie-breaker between UTIL options.
• While their 18-22 record still has them in fourth place in the AL West, the Los Angeles Angels have the second highest team batting average during the month of May at .284, and the fifth highest OBP at .345.
• Another fun statistic while looking at this month’s numbers? The Milwaukee Brewers have scored more runs than the Chicago Cubs since the beginning of May. They face two of the worst teams in baseball in the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds during Week 8 – expect their strong production to continue.
• Although they are anchored by Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano, the Pittsburgh Pirates team ERA during May is a horrific 5.13, putting them in the bottom five in all of baseball. They face two tough offenses in the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, so their struggles are likely to continue. If the back half of their starting rotation with Jeff Locke and Jon Niese continues to get shelled, expect to see Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon recalled from the minor leagues shortly.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: Despite a larger slate of interleague games on the Week 8 docket, all but two of them have the AL team at home, which means that owners shouldn’t be afraid of losing their UTIL/DH. From the listing of eligible candidates on NL teams who will inherit additional at bats, David Freese and Ryan Raburn would interest me the most.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Analysis: With the exception of Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg, Week 8 is void of “ace” starters that have the benefit of two advantageous matchups. Due to the Los Angeles Dodgers only having six games next week and with the squad operating out of a six-man rotation, Clayton Kershaw loses out on a second start. On the opposite end of the spectrum, David Price does have two starts in Week 8, but they come against the Colorado Rockies and Toronto Blue Jays (at the Rogers Centre) – both are unfavorable. A few names jump out on my rankings, including:

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen enjoys his highest rank of the season at sixth overall for the week, largely in part due to the plus-matchups that he has. The Tampa Bay Rays currently rank 22^nd in baseball in runs scored, and hit just .258 on the road. Much to no one’s surprise, the Atlanta Braves rank dead last in runs scored, and are batting a putrid .235 at home. I’d start Chen with confidence in both contests.
• Ian Kennedy -  Kennedy’s owners have to be grinning, seeing him square off against the Minnesota Twins again this week. In his first start against the Twinkies on April 9^th, he allowed zero earned runs over 6.2 IP while striking out 7. While one can’t assume he’ll shut them out again, expect at least seven or eight strikeouts. Kennedy’s second start against the Chicago White Sox isn’t as pretty on paper, but given the tear he has been on lately, a quality start should be in the cards.
• Drew Pomeranz – I’m likely overly bullish with my generous ranking for Pomeranz this week, but considering how he has pitched, it is hard to rank him any lower. Facing the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants on the road aren’t favorable matchups (those teams currently rank fifth and seventh in runs scored, respectively), but consider the streak that Pomeranz is currently on. Over the past 24 innings he has allowed just three earned runs, while striking out 25 batters. He has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season, and that includes matchups against the Rockies (in Coors), Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. His bullpen will likely squander any chance at a win (it is absurd that he has a 1.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and has a 4-4 record), but his ratios are definitely good enough to justify this position.

Analysis: My top five single-start pitchers this week are matchup proof options that don’t need don’t need to be discussed in detail (Kershaw, Arrieta, Hernandez, Syndergaard, Fernandez). Jose Quintana being ranked sixth may be a surprise to some, but quietly he has put together an incredible first month and a half, posting a 1.54 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while nearly striking out a batter per inning over his first eight starts.  He’s quickly developing into a solid SP1 and an incredible compliment to Chris Sale.

• Max Scherzer has struck out 46 batters over his last four starts, including 30 over his last two. This level of dominance isn’t sustainable, but even if regression is factored in, there are plenty of statistics which suggest that he has been even better than his numbers suggest. Scherzer’s xFIP hints that his ERA should be 3.16, nearly a full run below the current 4.01 rate. He has an astounding 21.3 percent HR/FB ratio, which is over double his career norm of 10.4 percent. Should he figure out what is causing so many gopher balls, he will be in the running (again) for the NL Cy Young.
• Masahiro Tanaka has stumbled over his last two starts against the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals, allowing 10 earned runs and 15 hits over 12 innings pitched. So why is he still a top 15 pitcher this week then? He faces the Tampa Bay Rays, who are a sub-par offensive ball club which he has dominated in the past, including earlier this season. Owners should expect a quality start with at least six strikeouts.
• I created a poll on Twitter earlier this week, asking my followers which starting pitcher was the most disappointing so far in 2016. Over half of the responses selected Sonny Gray and Matt Harvey, who have plummeted outside my top 30 pitchers this week. Between the two I’m more confident that Harvey will rebound, given the teams which he faces in the NL East and his underlying numbers. As an example, Harvey’s ERA currently stands at 4.93, yet his FIP suggests that it should be closer to 3.35. His line drive rate has spiked up over 10 percent since last season, while his BABIP is an absurd .373. He’s been bad for sure, but not as bad as one may think. I’m viewing him as a buy-low candidate.