The strategy of targeting players with experience at Colonial was the right call but when two obvious plays like Jason Dufner and Pat Perez miss the cut, it hurt, a lot! It killed a lot of people’s chances at winning big over the weekend. I personally must consider tee times especially when it comes to the weather report. I will strive to do better when it comes to making my final playbook selections and optimals. I can hang my hat on that I correctly predicted the winner, Kevin Kisner, of the Dean & Deluca live on the Fantasy Alarm show with Howard Bender last week. It is time to move forward to the Memorial.
It is all about the “Golden Bear” this week at Muirfield Village which plays host to Jack Nicklaus’ tournament known as The Memorial. The course measures out 7,392 yards which is not really considered long or short on the PGA Tour. This place is known as a golfers’ golf course because it really does not favor any specific type of player. You can beat this course in diverse ways from a risk/reward style to a more patient approach. The greens are not big but they are fast, measuring 13 on the Stimpmeter. These golfers will only have to pick a line and give it just a push.
If you look at players that have had success in this tournament, we notice that most all of them are good total drivers of the golf ball. Players would be better served to keep the ball on the fairway but it is not the end all be all. One stat that has stood out amongst the successful players has been proximity to the hole. We want guys who can get it in nice and tight. The last three winners, Hideki Matsuyama in 2014, David Lingmerth in 2015 and William McGirt in 2016 captured their first PGA Tour victories at Muirfield Village.
We’ve got another invitational field of just 120 golfers which means in general you can take more risks in your lineups. When you look at this field, there are only 100 players who have a legitimate chance of winning this weekend and the Top 70 plus ties will make the cut. Keep that in mind when setting those lineups.
When setting those cash game lineups, you would be smart to keep a more balanced approach of 10K, 9K, and 8K players to limit the amount of 6K golfers you’ll have to roster.
One other factor that you will have account for this weekend is weather! We hate hearing about weather but it will play a big part this weekend once again. Thursday will be a perfect day for golf with temps in the mid-70s and clear skies. Friday morning is more of the same until afternoon when the thunderstorms roll in and won’t leave the rest of the weekend. When you look at that forecast, the strategy will be to target more golfers playing in the afternoon on Thursday which means they’ll get out early on Friday hopefully before the storms. When you look through the playbook, I did not completely fade the Thursday morning tee times but the majority of these players start in the afternoon to avoid the Friday afternoon storms.
A reminder for anyone that did not read last week’s article, Fanduel took a week off from their golf product to retool the game. They have introduced their new DFS Golf format for the Memorial and I personally like the changes. Fanduel eliminated the Rounds 1-2 & 3-4 format and are now just having you select eight golfers for the whole tournament like Draft Kings. You will see Fanduel’s prices featured in the playbook once again.
I am started to get really excited for the U.S. Open which is just two weeks away from Erin Hills in Wisconsin. It will be the first U.S. Open in the state but it will be the state of Wisconsin’s fifth major championship. GET READY!
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!
UPDATED ON 6/2/17 AT 6:30PM ET
So, the weather ended up not being a big issue as the storms moved slower than expected and won't arrive until late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. It was really crazy to see both Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm put up such bad performances on a course that should fit their games so well. This is what makes golf interesting because you just never know when that bad round is coming and if you play the game you understand. I'm so glad that I believed in Jason Dufner even after his terrible outing last week. Hope you are reeping the benefits as well, he was only 1.8% owned in one of my double ups.
DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
PLAYER | DRAFT KINGS | FANDUEL | BREAKDOWN |
Jon Rahm | $11,100 | $10,800 | I mean 10/10 Cuts Made this season with 6 Top 10s & a Win. He has been right up there with DJ as the most consistent player on tour. His game fits Muirfield but where does it fit? |
Jason Day | $10,300 | $10,300 | You can call it contrarian but I saw signs of life in his Playoff Loss last week at the Memorial. The short game looked to be back on point. Good side of the tee times |
Hideki Matsuyama | $10,000 | $9,800 | 2014 Winner, T5 in 2015 but missed the cut last year. He's looking for his 1st Top 10 since the Waste Management, here is as good as spot as any to break that slump. |
Adam Scott | $9,800 | $9,700 | Season Best T6 at the Players. T13 in 2013 & T4 in 2014 at the Memorial. 33rd in GIR & 13th in Adjusted Scoring. He'll get overlooked among the players around him. |
Brooks Koepka | $9,700 | $9,400 | T52 in his only start here in 2015 but he has the game to win here. 2nd in Birdie or Better %, 24th in SG:Putting & 3rd in Par-5 Scoring. 2nd at the Valero. |
Jason Dufner | $8,700 | $8,200 | He screwed A LOT of people last week which means he'll be underowned this week. 3/3 Cuts Made with 2 Top 25s since 2014. Afternoon Tee Off |
Emiliano Grillo | $8,500 | $7,700 | 10 straight cuts made with Top 25s in his last 2 outings. T11 last year at Muirfield in his Debut. A threat anytime he tees it up. |
Ollie Schniederjans | $8,300 | $7,200 | Debut at Memorial but all his stats fit Muirfield. T20 Proximity, 25th in SG:Approach to the Green, 31st in SG:TG & 32nd in Adjusted Scoring. |
Bud Cauley | $8,000 | $7,100 | 4/4 Cuts Made at the Memorial but hasn't finished in the Top 30 but he's played great recently with 3 Top 10s in last 4 starts. |
Webb Simpson | $7,900 | $7,500 | Held the 54 Hole Led at Colonial finished 5th but ranked 8th in Proximity & 5th in SG: Putting. T11 last year at Memorial. |
Patrick Cantlay | $7,800 | $6,600 | He hasn't missed a cut this season. 2nd at Copperhead & T3 at Harbour Town. T22 at the Players despite a 77 on Sunday. Love his FD Price. |
Adam Hadwin | $7,600 | $7,800 | 12/12 Cuts Made this season sitting at 4th overall on Tour in Scrambling & 27th in SG:Putting. |
Bill Haas | $6,900 | $8,100 | T12 last week at Colonial. From 2013-15 he went T4-T8-T18 at the Memorial. GREAT VALUE here. |
Marc Leishman | $6,900 | $7,300 | T5 & T11 in his last 2 Trips to the Memorial (7/8 Cuts Made). Scoring average of 69.1. 9th on Tour in Adjusting Scoring. |
Ryan Moore | $6,700 | $8,000 | 10/11 Cuts Made at Memorial (3 Top 10s & 2nd in 2015). He's a ball striker who goes straight and lands on greens. |
Brendan Steele | $6,700 | $7,300 | T20 finish last year at Memorial. T6 at Players (Led the field in Proximity from the Rough & T11 in Greens Hit. Leds the TOUR in Scrambling. |
Sean O'Hair | $6,700 | $6,800 | He'll be under owned cause of his recent course history but has 3 Top 15s at the Memorial. T5 at Byron Nelson & T2 at Colonial. |
Harold Varner III | $6,300 | $5,600 | Final Round marred his Debut at the Memorial last year. I'm look at a revenge play here and he's an afternoon tee time. A Driver that can match up with almost anyone in the world. |
David Hearn | $6,200 | $5,500 | TERRIFIC VALUE HERE! 4/5 Cuts Made at the Memorial (21st, 25th, 28th, & 27th). He's a boring player but should make the cut. |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
Hideki Matsuyama | $10,000 |
Adam Scott | $9,800 |
Jason Dufner | $8,700 |
Bill Haas | $6,900 |
Marc Leishman | $6,900 |
Ryan Moore | $6,700 |
DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
Jon Rahm | $11,100 |
Emiliano Grillo | $8,500 |
Ollie Schneiderjans | $8,300 |
Patrick Cantlay | $7,800 |
Marc Leishman | $6,900 |
Brendan Steele | $6,700 |
FANDUEL OPTIMALS:
FANDUEL CASH | PRICE |
Adam Scott | $9,700 |
Jason Dufner | $8,200 |
Ryan Moore | $8,000 |
Brendan Steele | $7,300 |
Marc Leishman | $7,300 |
Bud Cauley | $7,100 |
Patrick Cantlay | $6,600 |
David Hearn | $5,500 |
FANDUEL GPP | PRICE |
Jon Rahm | $10,800 |
Jason Day | $10,300 |
Ollie Schniederjans | $7,200 |
Bud Cauley | $7,100 |
Sean O'Hair | $6,800 |
Patrick Cantlay | $6,600 |
Harold Varner III | $5,600 |
David Hearn | $5,500 |
ONE & DONE PLAY:
ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
SBS - Jimmy Walker | T9 |
Sony - Charles Howell III | T8 |
Career - Bill Haas | T17 |
Farmers - Brandt Snedeker | T9 |
Waste - Brendan Steele | T16 |
Pebble - Phil Mickelson | 65th |
Genesis - J.B Holmes | T34 |
Honda - Graeme McDowell | T14 |
Mexico - Alexander Noren | T55 |
Valspar - Ryan Moore | T18 |
Palmer - Zach Johnson | T66 |
Match - Sergio Garcia | Out of Sweet 16 |
Puerto - David Hearn | T17 |
Shell - Lee Westwood | MC |
Masters - Justin Rose | 2nd |
RBC - Kevin Kisner | T11 |
Valero - Charley Hoffman | T40 |
Wells Fargo - Adam Scott | T36 |
Players - Martin Kaymer | T69 |
Nelson - Dustin Johnson | T13 |
D & D - Pat Perez | MC |
Memorial - Emiliano Grillo | ??? |