Sunday at the Players may have been the strangest day of professional golf I’ve seen in a long time. You saw so many big names fall apart on Sunday and a young man sneak in and steal the title from an impressive field. Martin Kaymer was a huge disappointment, while he made it nine for nine in cuts made at the Players, the man did absolutely nothing over the weekend but fall down the leaderboard. The best part of playing Daily Fantasy Golf is there’s always next week to make it all back. Let’s take a look at the Byron Nelson.
The first thing you should notice when doing your research is that the course had a redesign back in 2007, which means everything prior to that year can be thrown out the window. Since the redesign, the experts have fought over whether this course benefits the long hitters or the accurate players. When you look at the winners since the redesign: Scott Verplank, Adam Scott, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner, Sang Moon Bae, Brendan Todd, Steven Bowditch, and Sergio Garcia, it’s an even split of long hitters and accurate players. It looks the same when you dive into the past top 10s. The fact that most seem to forget is that there are more 300 hitters than ever before on the PGA Tour and last years’ top 15 was full of bombers like Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Robert Garrigus, Charles Howell III, Bud Cauley, Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman, Dustin Johnson, and Gary Woodland. I think you can tell which side of the argument that I’m on. BOMBS AWAY! When you see BIG BOMBER in my playbook, that means the player sits within the Top 50 in Driving Distance on Tour.
If you are going to roster a shorter hitter, make sure they can keep the ball in the fairway. That’s why you’ll see names like Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Danny Lee, Brandt Snedeker, and John Huh still in my playbook despite not being long off the tee. These players have good records on this track.
TPC Four Season Resort is not known as one of the better courses on the tour schedule, in fact it is consistently voted as one of the worst by the players. The course is relatively short for a pro course but the fairways are narrow and has a lot of bunkers. You’ll notice in my playbook, there are players listed because of their sand save percentages. When you look through players that have finished top 10 on this course, most all of them have been -6 or better on the Par 5’s for the week and this course has only two being a par 70. The average winning score has been around -12 which means that Par 5 scoring will make up half your score, I’d say that’s a pretty important stat to target. We’re also looking for players who hit greens on a regular basis and you can never forget putting, even though these greens are not known to be very difficult.
Reminder, I’ll be on with Howard Bender on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210 & XM 87) at 5:30pm ET talking about this week’s event. You can also comment below or tweet me @Drew_Phelps83.
GOOD LUCK!
UPDATED OPTIMAL LINEUPS FOR POST-CUT GAME ON DRAFT KINGS
#1
Dustin Johnson $10,100
Brooks Koepka $9,600
Gary Woodland $7,700
Jhonattan Vegas $7,400
Jamie Lovemark $7,400
J.J. Henry $7,200
#2
Jason Day $9500
Patrick Reed $9400
Tony Finau $8700
Willy Wilcox $7500
Kyle Reifers $7400
Jamie Lovemark $7400
PRE-CUT DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
PLAYER | DRAFT KINGS | FANDUEL | BREAKDOWN |
Dustin Johnson | $12,500 | $11,800 | BIG BOMBER - T12 at the Players (Personal Best). 7/7 Cuts Made Here with 4 Top 10s & Another 2 Top 20s. Best Player in the World |
Jordan Spieth | $10,800 | $10,500 | CONTRARIAN PLAY after last week's missed cut at the Players. He was in the Final Pairing here last year finished T18. 6/6 Cuts Made Here. |
Brooks Koepka | $10,200 | $9,500 | BIG BOMBER is really locked in right now, hasn't finished below T16 in last 3 Starts (2nd at Valero). Lost in a Playoff Here Last Year & T16 in 2015. |
Louis Oosthuizen | $9,700 | $9,000 | Finished Tied for 2nd at the Players. As long as he stays healthy, he man is locked in right now. T11 finish here in 2014. |
Tony Finau | $9,200 | $7,700 | BIG BOMBER is 2/2 Cuts Made Here with a T10 in 2015 & T12 in 2016. Scoring average of 67. He might go under owned after back to back missed cuts. |
Jason Dufner | $8,800 | $8,000 | Won here in 2012 with another 2 T8s as well. He finished T60 at Sawgrass but before that 7 straight T25s in Stroke Play Non-Majors. |
Ryan Palmer | $8,700 | $7,200 | BIG BOMBER just loves playing in Texas. 4 Top 25s during 5 Year Stretch Here since 2011. 2 Top 11s in last 3 Starts. |
Charley Hoffman | $8,500 | $7,900 | T8 in 2013, T2 in 2015, & T12 in 2016 in his last 3 Trips to TPC Four Seasons. 34th in SG:Tee-To-Green. TEXAS NATIVE. |
Russell Henley | $8,300 | $7,500 | BIG BOMBER has 7 Top 20s in 12 Cuts Made. T35 at the Players. 1/2 at TPC Four Seasons finished T22 in 2015. Scoring Average 68.1. |
Byeong-Hun An | $8,000 | $7,500 | BIG BOMBER & Aggressive. T8 in his last start at Eagle Point. He's a leader in SG: Off-the-Tee & SG: Tee-To-Green (21st in both) |
J.B. Holmes | $7,900 | $8,800 | BIG BOMBER Lead the field at the Players before a BLOW UP on Sunday. Let that scare others away but not you. Only Missed 1 Cut in 12 Starts. |
Bud Cauley | $7,800 | $6,400 | BIG BOMBER has finished T9, T10, & T5 in his last 3 starts. He finished 4th here last year & sits 44th in SG:TG right now. |
Marc Leishman | $7,800 | $7,300 | BIG BOMBER finished T3 Twice & Another 2 Top 12s in 8 Trips into those Texas Winds. Scoring Average in last 16 Rounds is 68.5 with 2 Missed Cuts. |
Kevin Tway | $7,700 | $6,300 | BIG BOMBER has finished T3, 3rd & T5 in his last 3 Starts. Ranks 23rd in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. Ride the Hot Hand. |
Seung-Yul Noh | $7,600 | $6,300 | BIG BOMBER has a Good Short Game is an Advantage & He's an Artist (4 Trips Here). T22 at the Players & T5 at the Wells Fargo (Finished 2nd in Scrambling) |
Danny Lee | $7,100 | $6,500 | 4/5 Cuts Made with 3 Top 20s & a Scoring Average of 68.6 at the Byron Nelson. 33rd in Birdie or Better Percentage. Good Value Here |
Robert Garrigus | $7,100 | $5,300 | BIG BOMBER is not playing well this season just 8/16 in Cuts Made BUT 4 Top 20s in 8 Trips Here (T4 in 2016). Scoring Average of 67.8. |
Brandon Hagy | $7,000 | $5,300 | BIG BOMBER finished T18 at the Wells Fargo where he was 5th in Ball Striking. 10/14 Cuts this season with 3 Top 25s. |
J.J. Henry | $6,600 | $5,200 | 8/10 Cuts Made since 2007 (High Finish of 3rd). Made 5 of his last 6 Cuts with a T8 in Puerto Rico. GPP Only |
John Huh | $6,500 | $5,800 | 3/5 Cuts Made Here (8th & 16th place finishes). Before being Cut at the Players, had made 4 of his last 5 with a Top 10 at the Valspar |
Chad Campbell | $6,200 | $4,900 | 12/16 with 2 Top 25s (T12 last year). This native Texan is still a good ball striker and scrambler. Like him for value |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
Tony Finau | $9,200 |
Charley Hoffman | $8,500 |
Russell Henley | $8,300 |
Ryan Palmer | $8,200 |
J.B. Holmes | $7,900 |
Marc Leishman | $7,800 |
DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
Dustin Johnson | $12,500 |
Tony Finau | $9,200 |
Kevin Tway | $7,700 |
Danny Lee | $7,100 |
Brandon Hagy | $7,000 |
Chad Campbell | $6,200 |
FANDUEL OPTIMALS:
FANDUEL CASH | ROUNDS | PRICE |
Danny Lee | 1 & 2 | $6,500 |
Bud Cauley | 1 & 2 | $6,400 |
Seung-yul Noh | 1 & 2 | $6,300 |
Robert Garrigus | 1 & 2 | $5,300 |
Dustin Johnson | 3 & 4 | $11,800 |
Charley Hoffman | 3 & 4 | $7,900 |
Tony Finau | 3 & 4 | $7,700 |
Ryan Palmer | 3 & 4 | $7,200 |
FANDUEL GPP | ROUNDS | PRICE |
Brooks Koepka | 1 & 2 | $9,500 |
J.B. Holmes | 1 & 2 | $8,800 |
Kevin Tway | 1 & 2 | $6,300 |
Chad Campbell | 1 & 2 | $4,900 |
Jordan Spieth | 3 & 4 | $10,500 |
Byeong-Hun An | 3 & 4 | $7,500 |
Seung-yul Noh | 3 & 4 | $6,300 |
John Huh | 3 & 4 | $5,800 |
ONE & DONE PLAY:
ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
SBS - Jimmy Walker | T9 |
Sony - Charles Howell III | T8 |
Career - Bill Haas | T17 |
Farmers - Brandt Snedeker | T9 |
Waste - Brendan Steele | T16 |
Pebble - Phil Mickelson | 65th |
Genesis - J.B Holmes | T34 |
Honda - Graeme McDowell | T14 |
Mexico - Alexander Noren | T55 |
Valspar - Ryan Moore | T18 |
Palmer - Zach Johnson | T66 |
Match - Sergio Garcia | Out of Sweet 16 |
Puerto - David Hearn | T17 |
Shell - Lee Westwood | MC |
Masters - Justin Rose | 2nd |
RBC - Kevin Kisner | T11 |
Valero - Charley Hoffman | T40 |
Wells Fargo - Adam Scott | T36 |
Players - Martin Kaymer | T69 |
Nelson - Dustin Johnson | ??? |