Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and a day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 14 NFL running back climate…

1) Bell of the Ball

Le'Veon Bell went absolutely bonkers this past week in the snow against the Buffalo Bills. In total, he tallied 298 yards and three touchdowns, and using my hindsight, I should have known how well he would thrive in weather conditions such as this. In terms of shiftiness and patience, there isn’t really another runner in the league that compares to Bell, so in such heavy snow that would render everyone even more off balance, it would only make sense that the incredibly patient and ultra-balanced Bell would have even more of an advantage.

In the pure spirit of the aesthetics of the situation – weather and dominant rushing performance – I couldn’t help but hark back to 2013 when Shady McCoy thrashed the Lions defense for 217 rushing yards in blizzard-like conditions.

This week, Bell’s performance may have been even more impressive, topping off what has been a tremendous string of games. He’s now eclipsed 118 rushing yards in each of his last four contests, while he’s scored five times over the same span. His season concludes with three straight divisional games, and while they always are tough in the AFC North, they are not matchups that the elite-level Bell cannot handle.

2) Bilal to the Rescue

Yes, I know that it was against the league’s worst rushing defense, and yes, I know that much of the production can be considered inflated because of overtime, but Bilal Powell’s 145 rushing yards and two touchdowns were very impressive on Sunday, regardless of those aforementioned conditions. To add onto the impressive feat, Powell accomplished all of this in a game in which he didn’t play a big part of until the second half. On top of it all, he scored the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

If Matt Forte’s MRI does not come back with good news, Powell will be leaned upon heavily once again in Week 15 against another poor rushing defense in the Dolphins. With a young quarterback playing for the Jets here down the stretch, the running game is going to be the most focal part of this offense going forward. That should spell good things for Powell owners.

3) Jekyll and Hyde

In the same game, as much as Powell dominated the second half and overtime, you had Carlos Hyde in the first half, who absolutely gashed the Jets 4th ranked rush defense – 141 yards in the first two quarters to be exact. In total, he ended up just missing the 200-yard barrier (193), but his performance was incredibly impressive nonetheless. As my readers know, I have always been a huge supporter of the talent of Hyde. His ability to remain one of the more productive running backs in the league despite playing with the NFL’s worst defense and passing game speaks volumes to his elite ability.

4) David Johnson Update – Race for the 1,000/1,000 Club Membership

Well, as we know, Johnson already eclipsed the 1,000 yard rushing barrier, so all that is left for him to do is finish the job in the receiving game. This past Sunday – in incredibly sloppy conditions – the Cardinals offense sputtered and really struggled to throw the ball at all. That is what I am going to chalk his mere 41 receiving yards up to, as his recent pace in that department has been far better. Currently he sits at 745 receiving yards with three games to go. That keeps him on pace (917) to fall just short of the 1,000-yard mark. If he is going to get it done and join the exclusive two-man club, Johnson will need 85 yards receiving per game over his final three contests. It now appears to be an unlikely accomplishment, but I certainly would not rule him out just yet.

5) Final Hour Waiver Additions

If you are reading this, you have likely reached your league’s playoff semi-finals. Having said that, it is now, more than ever, that you may need just about any edge you can get. I’ve got a few running back suggestions to pick up as the season comes to a close, and look, I know it’s not every week that you will feel confident in picking up two guys named Kenneth, but if nothing else, consider adding these backs just to keep them away from your opponents. The fantasy playoffs are often akin to the Cold War. It’s an arms race to the finish, with the most loaded team often standing last…

Bilal Powell – For reasons that I stated above, Powell obviously remains an excellent addition to any fantasy roster, especially if Matt Forte’s MRI does not return good results. With two of his three remaining games coming against the awful Dolphins rush defense and a Bills defense that just allowed 298 total yards and three touchdowns to Le’Veon Bell, I would say that all owners should be zeroing in on Powell as a “must” waiver addition.

Kenneth Dixon – I know I’ve been teasing it each week for what seems like the past two months, and that I all but completely wrote of the Ravens backfield situation as a whole because of the unpredictable nature of their rep/carry split, but I finally feel that the Ravens coaching staff has made the full transition to a Dixon led backfield. Against the Patriots on Monday, Dixon not only appeared to be the more talented and energized back, but he also far out-touched and out-repped Terrance West. The final touch tally on Monday night? Dixon: 19 touches, 81 yards, 1 TD; West: 6 touches, 26 yards. Dixon should be available on most waiver wires at the moment.

Kenneth Farrow – While he wasn’t that impressive this past week, the rookie out of Houston appears to be the starter headed into Week 15 against the Raiders and their 26th ranked rush defense. Down the stretch in the season, a guy who is in line to see a bulk of touches is someone that you cannot put a price on. There are rumors that Ronnie Hillman could supplant him on Sunday, while an even further outside chance suggests that Melvin Gordon may play this week, but my bet is that Farrow will roll into Week 15 as the Chargers starting back, thus he should be added if for no other reason – to make sure that your opponent doesn’t get his/her hands on him. Remember: Cold War, arms race, etc.…

Ryan Mathews – Believe it or not, there are plenty of leagues – some of which I am a part of – in which Mathews is lurking on the waiver wires. If you too are a part of one of these leagues, pick him up immediately. My reasoning: Mathews is now the lone healthy back on the Eagles roster after last week when Wendell Smallwood went down for the rest of the year with a knee injury, and this happened to Darren Sproles (I suggest turning the sound all the way up to get the full effect)…

 

Paul Perkins – While the numbers suggest that they were equally as used and as effective (or lack there of) last week, Perkins seems to be the Giants back trending in the right direction as opposed to Rashad Jennings. Against a suddenly stout Cowboys defense, both backs struggled to rush for 45 yards on 15 carries, however when given opportunities, Perkins appeared to be more clever and patient. I’m not suggesting that he will rush for 100 yards in any of the Giants final three games, but I do believe that he could have an impact down the stretch here. Of the five players listed here, he is the one that you can let go, but in an arms race, something is better than nothing. Only consider Perkins if you miss out on the above four.  

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts

So lets get my complete whiff from last week out of the way – Devonta Freeman. In a game I knew would be a blowout and I predicted properly, by the way, how was I supposed to know it would be so lopsided that the Falcons would have to pull their starting running back before he could even get anything going? I don’t regret my starting of Freeman last week because it still, in principle, makes total sense. The game just got so out of hand that he was only given six carries. Sorry to everyone there, but I can’t help but not take the complete blame in this specific scenario. As for the rest of my picks, I will consider my DJ pick a push because he produced as expected aside from uncharacteristically being held out of the end zone, while my Latavius Murray and Robert Kelley picks were very positive selections for fantasy owners last week. Overall my picks should have helped you out. I expect to do the same for you this week…

ELITE PLAY

LeSean McCoy ($8,900 on DraftKings) vs. CLE Defense

Truth be told, there are a ton of “Elite Plays” that I love, but it would kind of defeat the purpose of trying to give you a leg up on the competition if I just listed every good running back. To make myself clear, I love Bell and Johnson’s matchups this week, but I think that if I had to pick the best of all of the elite backs, I would go with Shady based off of the reasons I will list further below and because of his relatively cheaper price tag comparatively. He’s taking on the Browns and their 31st ranked rush defense, and on top of that he has really become the Bills number one option in the passing game as well. He’s second in the NFL with five 100-plus rushing yard performances and I expect him to make it six in Week 15. If Rex Ryan’s job is going to be saved, the Bills basically have to win out. I expect this group to be energized and to take care of business against the winless Browns at home. Their victory will begin and end with Shady McCoy.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

DeMarco Murray ($6,900 on DraftKings) vs. KC Defense

The Chiefs may be really hot right now, but their rush defense isn’t. I’m not predicting a Titans win here, but I do expect that Murray – the league’s second leading rusher – will be able to take advantage of the league’s 27th best rush defense. At under $7,000 there is a chance for elite production here, which makes Murray a more than affordable option.


BARGAIN PLAY

Lamar Miller ($5,400 on DraftKings) vs. JAX Defense

I can’t really understand Miller’s pricing here, as he is only $5,400 despite coming off of a 100-yard performance last week and taking a bottom third rush defense this week. The Texans desperately need this win and I expect that they will take care of business at home against the Jags. They can’t rely upon their passing game to get the job done, so expect a heavy dose of Miller.

FLYER PLAY

Kenneth Dixon ($3,800 on DraftKings) vs. PHI Defense

I outlined earlier, how I think that Dixon has finally taken hold of this backfield due to the large disparity in touches and reps that he had over Terrance West last week. Against the Eagles he will be facing a middle of the road run defense at home in a game that the Ravens desperately need in order to bounce back from their loss to the Patriots last week. I expect him to receive the most carries on the team and I fully expect the Ravens to build off of his whopping eight catches that he had this past Monday night. At a mere $3,800 you should seriously consider flexing him in hopes of spending bigger at other positions.

BONUS

I hate to cop out and do this, but for whatever reason there are so many more matchups that I really do love this week. Without room to break them all down, I’ll just list them for you…

David Johnson vs. NO Defense (10,100 on DraftKings), Le’Veon Bell vs. CIN Defense ($9,800 on DraftKings), Devonta Freeman vs. SF Defense ($6,700 on DraftKings), Carlos Hyde vs. ATL Defense ($5,900 on DraftKings), Bilal Powell vs. MIA Defense ($5,600 on DraftKings), Tevin Coleman vs. SF Defense ($5,000 on DraftKings).