Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and a day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 12 NFL running back climate…

1) Jordan Howard – Quietly Developing Workhorse

This past week I clued you all into the mismatch that Howard had against this awful 49ers rush defense, and while much of it had to do with the fact that any NFL running back should have a field day against them, much of my analysis came from Howard’s body of work lately. I mentioned that, quietly, Howard has been racking up hard yards at an ultra-effective 5.4 yards per carry over his previous four contests. His average of 103.5 rushing yards per game over the same span came not against teams with a similar skillset to that of the Niners paltry rush defense, but rather against some of the best the game has to offer.

This past Sunday, he took care of business just as I expected him (117 yards, 3 TD’s), but I don’t expect this success to run out any time soon. Evidence has shown us that Howard is not a one hit wonder. As a rookie, he is tied for the league lead in 100-yard rushing performances this season with only LeSean McCoy and shockingly Ezekiel Elliott. Without much fanfare and media attention, Howard has quietly developed into one of the game’s true workhorses.

2) Baltimore Backfield – Effective in Reality; Nightmare in Fantasy

It seems like each week I try to give some insight into the Ravens backfield, while I even have gone as far as putting Kenneth Dixon in my Nostra-Dom-Us predictions a handful of times this season. Ultimately the conclusion I have come to is that while the Ravens have figured out an effective backfield situation to give them an advantage in real football games, it has become a nightmare for fantasy owners. Sure this past week Terrance West had a nice fantasy scoring output, however most of that comes off of the arbitrary nature of a multi-touchdown game rather than concentrated workload and production. He and Dixon will be splitting things pretty evenly going forward and considering the Ravens offense isn’t predicated on the run, I don’t expect either to finish out the season as a reliable fantasy option.

3) The Enigma – Latavius Murray

Murray is on pace for one of the most peculiar seasons I can remember. It’s not just that he hasn’t been trusted by his coaching staff to come even close to 200 carries or 1,000 yards rushing, but that combined with the fact that he is inexplicably on pace for 15 rushing touchdowns really makes me scratch my head. To take it further, Murray is not a player, considered by any, what you would call a “goal line back” – and while he may have the build, he is far more known for his speed. I see his touchdown pace this season and I really can’t make heads or tails of it. This is a guy who struggled mightily last season to get into the end zone, as he only tallied six rushing TD’s despite a whopping 266 rushing attempts.

What I think happened is that the Raiders finally got a hold of some statistics from last season that tell the story of Murray being one of the best short yardage backs in football. In terms of conversion rate and yards per attempt, Murray actually used his frame exceptionally well in 2015, despite the Raiders giving him limited opportunities around the goal line.

The biggest difference from last year to this is that now he not only has been effective in short yardage situations, but he also has become one of the better players in the red zone as well – either as a runner or receiver. An added red zone presence to his already effective short-yardage ability has increased his workload and more than doubled his touchdown production from 2015 to 2016. This Week 9 game against Denver probably is the best example of what I’m talking about…

Now we all know that I’m probably Murray’s biggest hater, but I am not blind to when even the most deplorable of football players possess redeemable traits. This guy has improved – I’ll give him credit there.

4) David Johnson Update – Race for 1,000 yard rushing/receiving club

Last week I laid out the groundwork for what David Johnson had to do to gain membership to the exclusive club (Roger Craig, 1985; Marshall Faulk, 1999) of guys to tally over 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. I said that he would first break the 1,000-yard rushing barrier in Week 13 after gaining 79 yards on the ground against the Redskins – which he did – and I also said that he would need to average 77.4 receiving yards or more over his final five games of the season in order to eclipse 1,000 yards in that category as well. He hauled in nine catches for 91 yards against Washington this past Sunday so, so far so good… His current pace still has him at 939 receiving yards after 16 projected games. Now with four games left, Johnson needs to average 74 receiving yards per contest to join the exclusive club. As I said last week, I expect him to accomplish the feat, as the Cardinals are going to need to ride him harder than Seabiscuit if they plan on making the playoffs. I will continue to keep you updated going forward.

5) Underwhelming Week on the Ground Overall…

With all of these interesting takeaways from Week 13 in the running back department, would you be surprised if I told you that it was a rather underwhelming week in terms of production at the position league wide?

Only four players rushed for over 100 yards, only five multi-touchdown games, only three players caught for over 60 yards, and only six backs caught receiving touchdowns.

Don’t get me wrong, I was still entertained, but as the season wears on, I can’t say that I’m surprised that some of these guys are beginning to burn out. In any event, 13 weeks into this NFL season and I can already tell you that this may be remembered as the season that running back was king once again. One off week won’t change that. 

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts

Last week was a nice bounce-back week for Nostra-Dom-Us, as I gave you three reasonable running back plays that helped me win some money and I’m sure it helped you win some too.

My “Elite” back was Zeke, and while he didn’t end up being the week’s top performer, he tallied 105 yards and a touchdown. My “Affordable” price play was Jordan Howard, and boy did I hit that one out of the park, as he ended up being the best value play by a long shot and finished as the second highest scorer overall with his 117 rushing yards and three touchdowns. My last pick was Kenneth Dixon, who performed quite admirably as my “Bargain” player. He reached double-digits in points and averaged a whopping 9.3 yards per carry in Week 13. Just as he looked unstoppable on the ground, he also caught four passes. Considering how good he looked, it is a wonder why the Ravens only gave him 10 touches and continued to work in favor of Terrance West.

Entering the final four weeks of the season, the picks are starting to get tougher to predict. The war of attrition is beginning to really wear on these backs, while defenses are kicking it into winter gear. Still though, I have identified a handful of players who should own DFS this week…

ELITE PLAY

David Johnson ($9,800 on Draft Kings) vs. MIA Defense

As I stated above, Johnson is on pace for an historic season. In hopes of continuing, Johnson is lucky enough to take on a struggling defense in the Dolphins for his Week 14 match-up. Sure he’s the most expensive back on the market this week, but he may just be worth it… In the last three games, Johnson has scored 38.0, 33.1, and 38.5 points. That type of production is epic. The Dolphins are 30th in the league against the rush, as they allow 130.3 yards rushing per game. On top of that, they were just boat raced out of the stadium by a mediocre Ravens offense in Week 13. Johnson should have his way with Miami’s defense this week.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

Devonta Freeman ($6,100 on Draft Kings) vs. LA Defense

Bear with me, while I give you a look backwards; two teams over the past two weeks…

Los Angeles Rams rushing defense over the last two weeks:

5.6 yards per carry, 171 yards per game allowed.

Atlanta Falcons rushing offense over the last two weeks:

4.1 yards per carry, 122 yards per game, four rushing touchdowns by Devonta Freeman.

Considering the positive trends for Atlanta on the ground and the negative ones for Los Angeles, I expect Freeman and this Falcons ground game to flourish. Freeman has been getting into the end zone with relative ease over the last couple of weeks, and that is the name of the fantasy game. He’s worth the $6,100 this week.

BARGAIN PLAY

Latavius Murray ($5,200 on Draft Kings) vs. KC Defense

As I stated earlier in the article, Murray has been a touchdown machine this season. In Week 14, Murray has the opportunity to continue his red zone success against one of the league’s worst statistical defenses. For starters, the Chiefs are 27th in the league against the rush, while their mere 22nd ranked pass defense should open things up for Murray as a receiver as well. Look, I’ve gone on record saying that I don’t like the guy as a football player, but I would be stupid to pass up an opportunity to make some money on a value play. He’s going for only $5,200 on DK, which is a steal considering the opportunity for a big game that is in front of him.

FLYER PLAY

Robert Kelley ($4,200 on Draft Kings) vs. PHI Defense

Mind you that this is a flyer pick, so I don’t expect huge things, but it is certainly worth a shot if you are strapped at the end of your budget.

Fat Rob is still the unquestioned starting running back for the Redskins – an offense that has been red hot – and as far as I can tell, the Eagles have been pretty bad over their last three weeks. In a game that I expect the Redskins to handle pretty easily, I don’t see why Kelley wouldn’t play a productive role in it. $4,200 is incredibly cheap for a starting running back that should be on the winning side of a match-up.