Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and a day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the Red Zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 12 NFL running back climate…

1) Rare Occurrence of Historic Proportions

1985 and 1999… Those are the only two years in which a running back has tallied over 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. The players: Roger Craig (1985) and Marshall Faulk (1999). Ever heard of them? I thought so… Essentially my point here is that this is not something that happens by accident, but rather it takes a special kind of back to accomplish such a feat. I’m talking Super Bowl champ, All-Pro, Hall of Fame level talent.

The current relevancy of this exclusive company is that David Johnson is set to join them this season provided he collects another 79 total rushing yards – which he should accomplish by next week – and averages 77.4 receiving yards per game over his final five contests.

Considering the near 80 receiving yards per game that he needs to finish up the season, this feat is far from said and done, however with the 103 yards that he just posted this past Sunday against the Falcons, I have reason to believe that he is just beginning to heat up. As the Cardinals offense continues to struggle, Johnson becomes more of a focal point in the passing game. If the Cards continue to play from behind, Johnson will eclipse the 1,000-yard receiving mark based off necessity alone. Even if he doesn’t break the barrier, what a season this has been for the second year back – certainly one for the books.

2) Thanksgiving Special

We have seen some really crappy Thanksgiving games over the years, however this season was the first since the early 90’s that all teams involved in the three games were over .500. Because of that, we were subsequently treated to some excellent rushing performances in at least two of the three games, as Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 97 yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins, while Le’Veon Bell tallied 120 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Colts in the night game. In a previous decade dominated by quarterbacks, it was nice to see running backs at the center of attention once again on the biggest stage. These two backs ­– along with the aforementioned David Johnson – exemplify excellence at the position and at their incredibly youthful ages, should usher in a golden age of elite running backs going forward.

3) Roll Tide! – Heisman Halfbacks Perform

Only two running backs from Alabama have ever won the Heisman Trophy and this past Sunday both – Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry – were on display. I made note of it only because of the uniqueness of the situations of each back. Allow me to explain…

In Ingram’s case this week, he entered the injury report on Monday listed as a player unexpected to play due to a concussion. With many reports conflicting as the week wore on, ultimately the belief became that he was not going to play by the weekend. Sunday morning, things changed and he eventually was listed as a game time decision. The overriding thought process ended up being that Ingram was a player to avoid considering he would be limited based off of his game time decision status. What ended up happening was a completely different story, as Ingram finished as the week’s leading rusher and fantasy scorer amongst running backs.

In similar fashion, Derrick Henry was an unexpected fantasy hero on Sunday, as he tallied 60 yards and a touchdown on a mere eight carries in relief of one of the league’s best backs. While he didn’t completely cut into DeMarco Murray’s workload, he certainly outperformed him for the first time this season, leading many to believe that there is going to be an increased workload for the rookie as the season enters the stretch run.

While the “Alabama Heisman Halfback” motif doesn’t exactly pull the story together, I recognized many more similarities between the two Bama backs – aside from their alma maters and collegiate accolades. In both stories, two backs were far from certain fantasy starts or even real football starts. Both backs ultimately persevered, outperformed expectations, and now will likely see an increased workload going forward because of the quality production. While Henry has now earned himself a right to enter a slight committee split, Ingram may have just pulled himself far ahead enough to be removed from one.

4) Fog of New England

Now that it is evident that Dion Lewis is back in a completely healthy capacity, we all are back to having no clue what to do with the Patriots backfield week in and week out. Sure, you would like to believe that you can kind of get a feel for the games that coach Belichick is going to just pound LeGarrette Blount 30 times for 100 yards and a handful of touchdowns, but now that Lewis and James White are in the mix for touches too, it is really hard to ever bank on a single back dominant game from the Pats on any given week. The worst part of it all is that neither James White nor Lewis are reliable options anymore because they directly conflict with each other’s touches that are already limited by nature. I would lay off of this backfield for the most part going forward, outside of a hunch game in which you believe Blount is going to score a few times.

5) Packers Patchwork Backfield

An extreme version of what I expect the Pats will give us each week going forward is what the Packers achieved this week, as they handed the ball off to four different backs and lined up at least seven different players in the backfield this past Monday night. There is no secret that the injury bug sure is a killer for this Green Bay roster this season, however this week James Starks returned, so this variety still is very shocking. Further than that I honestly have little analysis other than to say that Green Bay is a team to stay away from when looking for a fantasy running back going forward. Consider them a worse version of the New England backfield situation.

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts

Another wash for the prophet, as Nostra-Dom-Us is currently losing steam as the finish line nears. I still am providing quality fantasy selections at an above .500 clip, but without a good week here that gap will narrow. Below are my “picks of the week” at the running back position for Week 13, a week that I will dub “Rookie Edition” as three youngsters headline the selections.

ELITE PLAY

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200 on DraftKings) vs. MIN Defense

For all of the love that we deservedly heap upon this Minnesota defense, the one thing that you can do on them is run the football (only 14th in the league vs. the run). The one thing that Dallas loves to do more anything else is run the football (2nd in the league in rushing). Zeke currently leads the NFL in rushing yards and is in the midst of a hot stretch in which he has scored seven touchdowns in his last four contests. Furthermore, the rookie hasn’t rushed for less than 92 yards in any contest since Week 2, which is one of the more incredible streaks currently going in the league if you ask me. I wouldn’t overthink this one, as he is sure to produce on Thursday night and is priced $1,000 and change lower than the other two “elite” options in David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell for Week 13.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

Jordan Howard ($6,900 on DraftKings) vs. SF Defense

While my picks against the 49ers haven’t been solid gold recently, they still boast the league’s worst rushing defense and are in a really bad spot this week against Howard and the Bears.

Let’s face it, the Bears are a better team than the 49ers and are better than their 2-9 record indicates. If they don’t pick up a win this week at home against the Niners however, there aren’t really many wins left on the schedule for them (@ DET, vs. GB, vs. WAS, @ MIN). For the sake of their roster, coaching staff, and organizational pride, Chicago desperately needs a win this week and I think it will come on the back of their powerful rookie runner. Over the span of his last four games, Jordan Howard is averaging over 5.4 yards per carry and 103.5 rushing yards per contest. Keep in mind that these numbers came against four quality defenses and four teams with winning records. He should be able to cut through this awful 49ers rush defense that is allowing over 170 rushing yards per game like butter. Consider his $6,900 price tag a bargain. 

BARGAIN PLAY

Kenneth Dixon ($3,700 on DraftKings) vs. MIA Defense

Over the past four weeks – the first four that he has actively been considered a part of the Ravens game plan – Dixon has gradually worked his way to over 4.1 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per reception. Culminating this past week with his 17 touches for 80 total yards in comparison to 16 for 64, Dixon seemingly now has supplanted Terrance West as the Ravens leading back. If you want more evidence, the fact that he also saw more snaps than West this past week should be the nail in the coffin. Considering this, I can’t fathom where DK came up with his price tag for Week 13, as at home, Dixon and the Ravens should do some damage against the league’s third worst rush defense. When you really think about it, it makes sense… In Dixon you are saving tons of cap space yet still getting a near feature back at home against an awful rush defense.