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With fewer “picks of the week” last week, there was a smaller window for breakout success, but luckily for me, there was also a much lower risk for failure as well. In my selections last week, I essentially gave you mediocrity. Antonio Brown was solid in PPR formats with an eight-catch day, while the same can be said for Brandin Cooks and his seven receptions. My only home run for readers was my Doug Baldwin pick, who surprised everyone not with his 104 receiving yards, but with his 15-yard touchdown pass to quarterback Russell Wilson.
This week, with the split Thanksgiving schedule, the available DraftKings contests are a bit wonky. Unlike most weeks, there is no way this week to enter a contest allowing a full slate of games. I’m telling you this because it makes lineup creating that much harder unfortunately. My solution was to make one lineup with 14 eligible Thursday night through Monday night games and then make another with just the three Thanksgiving Day games. I feel content with that approach and along the way found some potential match-ups and price tags vulnerable to be exploited in the wide receiver department. Below is my breakdown of every outside WR/CB match-up, while even further below are my “Nostra-Dom-Us Picks of the Week.”
| Off | Left WR | Def | Right CB | Analysis |
| ARI | Larry Fitzgerald | ATL | Desmond Trufant | This should turn out to be one of the better match-ups of the weekend, as Fitz enters as the second leading receiver – in terms of receptions – in the league, while Trufant is still one of the league's best corners, despite being only one week removed from injury. I expect Fitzgerald to get his numbers in terms of targets and catches, but touchdown upside is not as safe. He will be an adequate PPR play, but may struggle to finish in the top-10 in standard this week. |
| ATL | Julio Jones | ARI | Marcus Cooper | Let's be real here, this will not be the matchup on Sunday, as Patrick Peterson is going to mirror Jones on every play in Week 12. Consideirng that, I expect this to be the headliner in a week of good WR/CB matchups. Jones is elite, so he should at the very worst post adequate fantasy numbers, however I expect that the presence of Peterson breathing down his neck every down will limit his elite upside. A good barometer for Jones' production is what A.J. Green posted against Janoris Jenkins two weeks ago... 7 rec, 68 yds, 1 TD. |
| BAL | Steve Smith Sr. | CIN | Adam Jones | Smith had himself a big week against Cowboys backup corner Anthony Brown last Sunday, and while he has been relatively reliable all season long, I expect him to come slightly back to earth this week when he takes on a more polished veteran in Pacman Jones of the Bengals. |
| BUF | Marquise Goodwin | JAX | Jalen Ramsey | Ramesy has arguably been the best defensive rookie this season, while Goodwin is virtually a pointless fantasy start each and every week. Do I need to spell it out for you? |
| CAR | Kelvin Benjamin | OAK | Sean Smith | Benjamin has actually been pretty consistent all season long, but for fantasy owners, they are struggling to come to terms with his lack of touchdowns over the last nine weeks. For what it's worth, the Raiders secondary has been very leaky this season, but without an offensive line to speak of, I can't imagine Cam Newton having enough time to get the ball down field to Benjamin often enough to please fantasy owners. |
| CHI | Eddie Royal | TEN | Jason McCourty | Despite the loss of Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller this past week, Royal still couldn’t make any noise in the fantasy community. That should be enough for fantasy owners to punt him towards the waiver wires. |
| CIN | Tyler Boyd | BAL | Jimmy Smith | I have high hopes for Boyd going forward, as he will be the Bengals best receiver while A.J. Green is out with a hamstring injury. Double-digit targets are not out of the question for the rookie in this matchup, as it is still unclear if Smith will even play this week (he was out against Dallas in Week 11). |
| CLE | Corey Coleman | NYG | Janoris Jenkins | Jenkins has been red hot and Coleman is still a rookie. As talented as I believe Coleman is, Jenkins should handle him this week. |
| DAL | Dez Bryant | WAS | Josh Norman | To go along with an excellent matchup marquee this week, I may have to rethink my statement of Julio vs. PP as the headliner for Week 12, as Dez vs. Norman is second to none in terms of combined talent, swagger, and implications. The last time Bryant took on the Redskins (Week 2), he caught seven passes for 102 yards, which is pretty damn good production, however Dez hardly took on Norman in that matchup, which is something that I expect to happen often on Thursday. Considering how well Norman and the Skins are playing right now, I feel that Dez will be somewhat limited, however it should not be ignored how great Dak, this Dallas offense, and Dez are playing right now as well. This matchup could really go either way, but my gut says that Dez – like Juio – will finish somewhere around the 7 rec, 68, yds, and 1 TD that A.J. Green posted two weeks ago against Janoris Jenkins. |
| DEN | Demaryius Thomas | KC | Phillip Gaines | Thomas went into the Broncos bye week last week coming off of an excellent game in which he caught eight balls for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. He will be looking to build off of that performance this week when he takes on Phillip Gaines and a Chiefs secondary that is allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing receivers. I rarely trust Trevor Siemian, however this matchup seems too good to pass up. Play Thomas with confidence for one of the few times this season. |
| DET | Golden Tate | MIN | Xavier Rhodes | While Tate is considered the "number one receiver" in this Lions offense, I don't treat him as one in the fantasy world. I would much rather trust Theo Riddick with that title. Considering that in this matchup, I don't think that he has much of a chance to put together a quality fantasy stat line against a corner playing at the level of Xavier Rhodes. |
| GB | Jordy Nelson | PHI | Nolan Carroll | Nelson is the league leader in TD receptions with nine. Say all that you want about this disappointing Packers passing offense, but the facts are that Nelson has gotten into the end zone at least once in every game this season except for two. I'm going to continue to start Nelson consideirng that kind of consistent productivity. |
| HOU | DeAndre Hopkins | SD | Craig Mager | Hopkins' lack of production conitnues to disappoint fantasy owners week in and week out, and while I don't really blame him much, I can't trust him as a fantasy starter going forward. |
| IND | Donte Moncrief | PIT | Ross Cockrell | As of now, the Colts are treating their Thursday night matchup with the Steelers as if Andrew Luck is not going to play. On that alone, I will be weary on starting Moncrief in any fantasy format. Add to that mix that now Crief has been listed as "questionable" and I am placing him in my "don't start" category this week. |
| JAX | Allen Robinson | BUF | Ronald Darby | After being one of the biggest busts of the season throughout the first half of the season, Robinson has now scored in three consecutive games. We all know that in the fantasy world, touchdowns are the name of the game. If A-Rob can continue to get into the end zone, he will place his name back in that elite WR category. All things considered, his matchup is pretty good this week, as Darby has struggled for most of this season. |
| KC | Albert Wilson | DEN | Chris Harris | Harris is lockdown and Wilson has only 180 more receiving yards than me this season. If I didn’t make myself clear enough, pass on him. |
| LA | Kenny Britt | NO | Sterling Moore | Britt was targeted seven times in Jared Goff's first career start last week. That should be enough each week for him to remain relevant for the rest of the season. This week I like his matchup against a weak New Orleans secondary, however the question is will Goff be able to make all of the NFL reads and throws in just his second start. I usually like to believe in high draft picks because GM's arent stupid (typically). Give Britt a chance here. |
| MIA | DeVante Parker | SF | Jimmie Ward | Parker is one of my favorite plays this week because he is tagged at a low DraftKings price and has been pretty hot over the last two weeks. The 49ers have one of the league's worst defenses and should have their hands full with Parker this week. |
| MIN | Stefon Diggs | DET | Nevin Lawson | Diggs is currently "questionable" and I believe that he won't end up playing. Even if he does play, it is unlikely that he will be at 100-percent. The better option this week is Cordarrell Patterson, who should replace Diggs' production on Thursday. |
| NE | Chris Hogan | NYJ | Buster Skrine | Hogan is inconsistent and Brady only seems to look for him on deep throws. This is all obviously only possible when Hogan is healthy, and that is something that he hasn’t really been over the past few weeks. My point is that he is not someone you went in your fantsay lineups. |
| NO | Michael Thomas | LA | Lamarcus Joyner | According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas has been one of the league's best rookies this season. I expect him to continue to impress in this week and beyond, as his matchup is not only favorable on Sunday, but is also for most of his remaining ones on the schedule. Expect five or so receptions with around 65 yards receiving and touchdown upside on Sunday against the Rams. |
| NYG | Odell Beckham | CLE | Jamar Taylor | Beckham is more likely to be followed by Joe Haden on Sunday, so that changes my opinion a bit. While I have knocked down Haden slightly over the past couple of seasons as a "former" elite corner, the fact of the matter is that he has been pretty damn good this season. Over the last two weeks, he has shutdown Dez Bryant and contained Antonio Brown. Considering the dud from ODB last week, I have little evidence to expect that he will post elite production against a CB of Haden's quality in Week 12. |
| NYJ | Brandon Marshall | NE | Logan Ryan | Marshall's lack of production is not surprising this season considering the awful quarterback play that he has had to deal with all season long, however that doesn’t mean that fantasy owners should continue to put up with it. Until the Jets change their directive drastically offensively, I see no way that Marshall is a fantasy starter going forward. |
| OAK | Michael Crabtree | CAR | Daryl Worley | While everyone may be freaking out over Crabtree's rapid cool off over these past two weeks, it should be noted that his struggles have come against two of the best pass defenses in the league. This week the Raiders will be hosting Carolina – one of the league's worst passing defenses – so I expect his fortunes to change. |
| PHI | Jordan Matthews | GB | Quinten Rollins | In two out of the past three weeks, Matthews has survived – in PPR formats – a gauntlet so to speak in matchups against the Giants and the Seahawks. Taking on one of the league's worst secondaries in the Packers this week should bode well for his fantasy potential in Week 12. |
| PIT | Antonio Brown | IND | Vontae Davis | Brown took on Joe Haden last week and hauled in eight balls for nearly 80 yards – not ideal, but passable. He will again face a good corner in Vontae Davis this week, however he should once again prevail. He may not be worth his incredibly high price tag on DraftKings, however he is a must start in every other format. |
| SD | Travis Benjamin | HOU | Johnathan Joseph | Benjamin has been banged up for most of November, and throughout that time period, Tyrell Williams has asserted himself as the better fantasy start each week. All things considered, Benjamin looks to be a "don't start" this week against Jonathan Joseph and the Texans number two ranked pass defense. |
| SF | Torrey Smith | MIA | Xavien Howard | Smith is a "don't start" each and every week in my book. |
| SEA | Doug Baldwin | TB | Brent Grimes | Last week, Baldwin not only hauled in four balls for over 100 yards, but he also managed to throw a touchdown pass to quarterback Russell Wilson. It appears that he is beginning to heat up down the stretch here, just like he did last season. I will continue to start him going forward – espeically with his remaining, surprisngly affordable, price tag on DraftKings. On top of all of that, I like Baldwin's matchup here. Grimes is fiesty but Baldwin should have his way. |
| TB | Adam Humphries | SEA | DeShawn Shead | Over the past four weeks, Hunmphries has played the part of a perfect complimentary receiver – about five catches and 50 yards per game. If that is good enough for you in your fantasy league, sign him up because that seems to be what he will give you each week going forward. If not. Stay away because he has very little upside. |
| TEN | Rishard Matthews | CHI | Bryce Callahan | I'm so proud to have written about the impending emergence of Matthews just before he broke out a few weeks ago, so I obviously will continue to think of him in a positive light. All bias aside though, it is difficult to question Matthews going forward considering his production of late. Peaking with nine catches for 122 yards in a loss last week, I expect him to exact revenge against a Bears defense that is allowing the most points to fantasy wide receivers this season in Week 12. |
| WAS | Pierre Garcon | DAL | Anthony Brown | Over the past three weeks, Garçon has really been heating up. Culminating last week with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown, the veteran wide receiver is looking to build off it in his matchup against Cowboys rookie Anthony Brown in Week 12. Brown has done the best job a team could ask for out of a sixth round rookie, however he has surrendered quite a few yards over the weeks he has started. Ultimately, I believe that Garçon should play well on Thursday, however getting into the end zone will be a problem as the Cowboys have been good in that regard this season. |
| Off | Right WR | Def | Left CB | Analysis |
| ARI | J.J. Nelson | ATL | Robert Alford | Nelson has disappointed over the last two weeks since being named a starter, however I think things will turn around for him this week as his matchup is favorable against Robert Alford. |
| ATL | Mohamed Sanu | ARI | Patrick Peterson | PP is almost guaranteed to matchup with Julio Jones and not Sanu, so pay little attention to the depth chart matchup here. In regards to Peterson vs. Jones, I believe that it will be a back and forth affair. Peterson should limit Jones' elite upside, however Jones will get enough to remain fantasy consistent. As for Sanu, I rarely consider starting him because of his inexplicable inconsistencies. He is too hot and cold to judge, thus I will be stay away from him. |
| BAL | Mike Wallace | CIN | Dre Kirkpatrick | Wallace always has home run upside, however he should be limited by a good corner in Kirkpatrick here. As always, start him in your season long leagues because he has earned that respect, however he is a high-risk, high-reward DFS start. |
| BUF | Robert Woods | JAX | Davon House | Woods may have errupted against the Seahawks two weeks ago, however, as I expected, he struggled against the Bengals last week. The Jaguars feature a surprisngly stingy pass defense, so I don't love Woods' chances this week either. |
| CAR | Ted Ginn Jr. | OAK | David Amerson | Ginn is always on my "don't start" list. The fact that he has a favorable matchup against the Raiders vulnerable secondary does not change my opinion. |
| CHI | Cameron Meredith | TEN | Perrish Cox | Jay Cutler is now hurt and there is no Brian Hoyer to come and save Meredith this time around. His four targets as the number one were disappointing last week, and I expect more of the same from him going forward. Pass on Meredith. |
| CIN | Brandon LaFell | BAL | Shareece Wright | LaFell's value should increase going forward with the loss of A.J. Green, however I perfer Tyler Boyd in this offense over LaFell. Shareece Wright held his own last week against Terrence Williams and shutdown the Cowboys number two receiver, so I wouldn't be surprised if he did the same this week. |
| CLE | Terrelle Pryor | NYG | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | TP has been battling injuries and a quarterback carousel all season long, yet somehow he has managed to remain consistent and near elite. I expect him to be slowed down by the Giants this week, but that shouldn't change anyone's opinion about him going forward. He's slated to be a fantasy mainstay going forward. |
| DAL | Terrance Williams | WAS | Bashaud Breeland | Williams has done virtually nothing since Dez has come back, so I expect more of the same from him going forward. |
| DEN | Emmanuel Sanders | KC | Marcus Peters | Sanders has really reverted to being a true number two WR over the last few weeks, which doesn’t bode well for his former near elite fantasy status. If fantasy owners are banking on Trevor Siemian to turn into a Pro Bowl quarterback anytime soon, don't hold your breath. |
| DET | Marvin Jones | MIN | Terence Newman | Jones has been a shell of himeslf since his awesome start to the season and I'm beginning to think that this is the real him rather than the September/October Jones. Translation: pass on Jones going forward. |
| GB | Randall Cobb | PHI | Leodis McKelvin | Philly has been solid defensively all season long and should fare well against Cobb this week just as the Skins did for the most part last week. |
| HOU | Will Fuller | SD | Brandon Flowers | Considering the state of this Houston passing game, Fuller is a worthless fantasy start, regardless of health. |
| IND | T.Y. Hilton | PIT | William Gay | Hilton has been an elite receiver all season long, however I fear his production will fall off a cliff when Andrew Luck doesn't start on Thanksgiving. |
| JAX | Allen Hurns | BUF | Stephon Gillmore | It's been a month since Hurns was relevant and it was not long before that when he was completely irrelevant. Pass on Hurns until the Jags figure things out offensively. |
| KC | Chris Conley | DEN | Aqib Talib | This KC passing game is just embarrassing. Considering their matchup against the league's best passing defense, I don't expect this to be the week that Conley breaks out. |
| LA | Tavon Austin | NO | Delvin Breaux | Austin is a worthless fantasy start because he is in an offense that fails to get the ball in his hands. |
| MIA | Kenny Stills | SF | Tramaine Brock | Stills is one of those players limited to deep ball production. That is rather unpredictable, and thus I shy away from starting him each week. |
| MIN | Charles Johnson | DET | Darius Slay | Johnson is not fantasy relevant and Slay is an excellent man-up corner. To be even clearer, stay away from this matchup. |
| NE | Julian Edelman | NYJ | Darrelle Revis | As I make clear each and every week, Edelman will line up in the slot in this matchup. Consideirng this, Edelman should have his way against the Jets slot coverage, his production all depends on if Brady looks his way. |
| NO | Brandin Cooks | LA | Trumaine Johnson | Cooks was targeted enough last week, but he just couldn’t shed the coverage to top even the 50-yard mark. I expect better results against the Rams this week. |
| NYG | Sterling Shepard | CLE | Joe Haden | Shepard has come alive of late and has become a realistic fantasy option. It is likely that Shepard will face Jamar Taylor instead of the elite Haden, so I like his chances of success better than Odell Beckham Jr. in fact. |
| NYJ | Quincy Enunwa | NE | Malcolm Butler | This Jets passing game is in shambles. While I don't think that this Pats defense is as good as usual, I don't like Enunwa's chances of fantasy success this week. |
| OAK | Amari Cooper | CAR | James Bradberry | Cooper is my "elite" play of the week and for good reason. He remains one of the top-five receivers in this league and is facing a secondary that allowed 300 receiving yards to Julio Jones in a single game earlier this season. He should have a day at home on Sunday. |
| PHI | Nelson Agholor | GB | Demetri Goodson | Agholor cannot be relied upon in any fantasy format right now. |
| PIT | Sammie Coates | IND | Patrick Robinson | Coates has caught one ball in the past month. That should tell you everything you need to know about this matchup. |
| SD | Dontrelle Inman | HOU | Kareem Jackson | Innman's production will go down this week with the return of Travis Benjamin. The best WR play on this Chargers offense is Tyrell Williams. |
| SF | Aaron Burbridge | MIA | Byron Maxwell | Burbridge is a "don’t start" weekly for me. |
| SEA | Jermaine Kearse | TB | Vernon Hargreaves | Kearse is not reliable enough for me. He sees few targets and posts little production. Unless Doug Baldwin is hurt, Kearse shouldn't be starting. |
| TB | Mike Evans | SEA | Richard Sherman | Evans is a stud, however Sherman is as well. If this Seattle defense gives Jameis Winston enough time to throw, Evans will get his numbers, however otherwise it may be a day of mediocrity for the elite wideout. |
| TEN | Tajae Sharpe | CHI | Tracy Porter | Sharpe has been better over the last couple of weeks, however he is still not fantasy relevant. |
| WAS | DeSean Jackson | DAL | Brandon Carr | Jackson always has the deep threat upside, but is too inconsistent to rely upon in fantasy formats. |
NOSTRA-DOM-US PREDICTS
ELITE PLAY
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Amari Cooper ($7,700 on DraftKings) vs. James Bradberry
Carolina is allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and is currently ranked 27th overall against the pass this season. The Raiders bring the league’s best passing game into this match-up, while Cooper is fifth in the league in receiving yards. He poses a match-up nightmare to a secondary that earlier this season allowed 300 yards to Julio Jones in a single game alone. I expect the Raiders to make easy work of the defending NFC champs, as they match-up really well and have the west coast advantage over the traveling east coast Panthers team. Cooper should lead the charge in a high scoring victory on Sunday.
AFFORDABLE PLAY
DeVante Parker ($4,700 on DraftKings) vs. Jimmie Ward
Parker has posted back-to-back impressive stat lines in the past two weeks and now will be hosting arguably the league’s worst defense on Sunday. There has never been a doubt about his talent, but rather the problem with him always has been inexperience and inconsistency. Catching at least five balls and racking up at least 79 yards receiving in each of the last two games is giving me hope that he and Ryan Tannehill are finally getting on the same page. Considering his last two match-ups were much more daunting than this one, I am going to put stock in him at a mere $4,700 this week on DraftKings. Parker is my value play of the week.
BARGAIN PLAY
Tyler Boyd ($4,000 on DraftKings) vs. Jimmy Smith
Chances are that A.J. Green is out for the season. That leaves a gaping hole wide open for rookie Tyler Boyd to fill in as the Bengals de facto number one flanker. At only $4,000 this week, Boyd is severely under-priced considering he is in line for potentially double-digit targets. For some insight on his game, check out my 2016 pre-draft analysis of the incoming wide receiver class (scroll to #7).
FLYER PLAY
Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,600 on DraftKings) vs. Nevin Lawson (Stefon Diggs’ health providing)
I’m writing this on Wednesday, so take it with a small grain of salt…
It is sounding more and more like Stefon Diggs will not be able to go against the Lions on Thanksgiving. He’s dealing with a knee injury that has kept him out of practice all week and will disallow him any opportunity to be 100-percent come Thursday afternoon. Having said this, there is no way that the Vikings can squander an opportunity to take on a secondary that is allowing completions at a 73-percent clip and opposing quarterbacks to tally a league-high 108.5 passer rating (according to Kevin Patra of NFL.com). So, the way I’m taking it is that Minnesota will have to be more creative in who they get the ball to through the air.
While Adam Thielen is the more popular choice to pick up the left behind production from Diggs, I believe that more explosive, more talented, and cheaper may I add, Cordarrelle Patterson gives fantasy owners the best chance for contest separating point production in Week 12. The narrative is that Thielen has a better rapport with quarterback Sam Bradford, however the truth is that Patterson has been targeted 20 times over the last three weeks to Thielen’s 15. Ultimately Patterson will be lower owned than Thielen and will have higher upside. In an offense completely lacking playmakers – especially now without Diggs – I believe that the Vikings will do all they can to get the ball in Patterson’s hands on Thursday. There is no chance that offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur watched Patterson do this last week…
and didn’t make him the focal point of the offense for their Thanksgiving prime-time game against the Lions. At such a cheap price with such high upside, Patterson is my flyer pick of the week.