Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and a day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the Red Zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 11 NFL running back climate…

1) Gaining Momentum

Don’t look now, but the Giants are beginning to gain some serious momentum. Quietly they have put together an impressive 7-3 record after a slow start out of the gates and much of their turnaround can be attributed to better offensive line play. Besides from the passing game finally waking up, one of the biggest beneficiaries from this offensive line improvement has been Rashad Jennings. It’s now back-to-back weeks for Jennings where he has claimed at least 18 touches and has tallied at least 85 yards rushing, making him a legitimate player in the fantasy world going forward. This is good news because the Giants have desperately been lacking a go-to back for the last couple of seasons and they now appear to have one.  

2) War of Attrition

I have to credit this one to my mother – one of the most rabid football fans out there – because while I was in the middle of a lucid Sunday hangover/food coma, she pointed out to me that in just the Eagles vs. Seahawks game alone, five running backs were injured – Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews of the Eagles, along with C.J. Prosise, Troymaine Pope, and Thomas Rawls of Seattle.

This is the point of the season when the season long war of attrition begins to wear on backs, but ironically every player listed above has hardly seen a big workload this season, if any at all. This game is more of an example of the nature of the running back position during the later weeks of the NFL season. More relevant names fitting my mold here from Week 11 are, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard, Charcandrick West, Theo Riddick, and T.J. Yeldon, who all have been fighting through ailments this season and are either ruled out for Week 12 or are in doubt because of injuries sustained from last Sunday… It’s time to begin to monitor the daily injury reports even more closely going forward.

3) “I Believe I Can Fly”

Well, maybe I shouldn’t get too ahead of myself here, but I couldn’t help but make the obvious R. Kelly reference when what emerged this past Sunday was another great “R. Kelley” in the Redskins Robert Kelley. Ultimately, I want to draw the comparisons of the Kelly song title message to Kelley’s fantasy stock in that it is currently soaring. I hope I made this obvious enough because after his 137 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11, he is sure to be the hottest name on the fantasy waiver wires going forward.

4) “So you're telling me there’s a chance?”

I will not argue with you over the enormity of the Vikings win this past Sunday against the Cardinals, however it needs to be acknowledged how dreadful Minnesota remains on the ground. Currently, they are dead last in the league in rushing yards, 32nd, it literally couldn’t get worse in comparison to the rest of the NFL. Much of it has to do with the significant injuries that they have suffered up front throughout the season, however I would argue that the biggest contributor to the struggles comes from the early season loss of future hall of famer Adrian Peterson. While we all – for the most part – had just forgotten about him throughout the Vikings 5-0 start, his absence had become much more evident during their subsequent four game losing streak. It became apparent during this stretch of despair that without a typical bruising Vikings ground game that they wouldn’t be able to make the playoffs, and that is even with their arguably elite defense. In fashion that can only be compared to Kyle Schwarber’s miracle this past MLB postseason, it has just surfaced that AP is inexplicably nearing a return this season, just a couple of months removed from meniscus surgery. If this is true and Peterson can return within the next couple of weeks, I believe that the Vikings have a legitimate shot at winning the division. For all desperate AP owners and Minnesota Vikings fans, take a moment and remember the words of hope from Lloyd Christmas of Dumb and Dumber… “So you're telling me there’s a chance?”

5) Damage Control

To continue from the running back injury bug segment, fantasy owners should keep their eyes peeled for the following players on the wire this week due the starters ahead of them getting injured: Tim Hightower (in relief of Mark Ingram), Mike Gillislee (in relief of LeSean McCoy), Thomas Rawls (in relief of C.J. Prosise), Wendell Smallwood (in relief of both Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews), Jeremy Hill (no more Giovani Bernard competition), Chris Ivory (takes lion’s share of carries after T.J. Yeldon “questionable” tag).

All owners of the newly injured backs should be scouring the waiver wire for these Band-Aids, as replaceable production is imperative during this late stretch of the season. Spare no bench player when trying to fill the running back position… Time is of the essence.

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts…

While still not as good as my Week 10 predictions, Week 11 was a considerable success for Nostra-Dom-Us, as three out of four picks hit. Le’Veon Bell rushed for 146 yards, scored a touchdown, and added an extra eight catches for 55 yards on the receiving end as well. DeMarco Murray rushed for 70 yards and added a receiving touchdown to his acceptable stat line. LeGarrette Blount tallied 124 rushing yards on 19 carries. Chris Ivory totaled 114 scrimmage yards along with six receptions. And finally my only miss was Jeremy Hill who rushed for a mere 62 yards without a score. Likely, if you took even half of my advice in this department you could have built a winning lineup, which is all I can really ask for from my readers.

As for this week, I once again am feeling good. As the season wears on, the mismatches are becoming easier to identify. Keep in mind that the easier it becomes for us, the easier it becomes for the rest of the DFS football watching community.

ELITE PLAY

Jay Ajayi ($7,600 on DraftKings) vs. SF Defense

I wasn’t kidding when I said a few weeks ago that the 49ers defense would be on this list a whole hell of a lot going forward, as they not only had a murderers row of backs on their remaining schedule, but they also were allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game up to that point. They continue to get gashed weekly and this matchup doesn’t feel like it will go any different. J-Train is one of the hottest backs in the league right now and is likely to embarrass the 49ers here. Start him with complete confidence in Week 12.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

Rashad Jennings ($5,600 on DraftKings) vs. CLE Defense

As I mentioned earlier, Jennings is heating up and it is just in time for him to enter Cleveland in Week 12 and dismantle this God-awful Browns rushing defense. If the Giants stick to the game plan and put the Browns away early, that should leave plenty of time for Jennings to rack up clock-killing ground stats, which should include over 100 yards rushing and at least one touchdown. At an affordable $5,600 he may very well be the value play of the week.

FLYER PLAY

Wendell Smallwood ($4,300 on DraftKings) vs. GB Defense

Smallwood is one of the few healthy running backs remaining on this Eagles offense. My belief is that even if Darren Sproles does suit up next week, he won’t be 100-percent, which should make Smallwood the de facto lead back against this vulnerable Packers defense. He played well in relief of both Sproles and Mathews last week, and I expect that he will do the same in a spot start in Week 12, opportunity provided.