Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 10 NFL running back climate…

1) Running out of superlatives…

I’m starting to run out of compliments to heap upon Ezekiel Elliott. He’s just incredible. I tried to warn you all before the draft and I preached it even more once the Cowboys took him fourth overall, I even picked him to finish as the fantasy MVP this season, yet still somehow he is exceeding my expectations. Through all of my vetting on Zeke since his sophomore year of college – while I feel very comfortable about the traits I assigned to his scouting report – I embarrassingly managed to overlook his ability to carry teams to victory. It’s a unique ability really because it’s not one that is often possessed by running backs. Typically quarterbacks are the only ones that can make or break a team’s chances each week, but I believe that Zeke’s “game breaking” talent is what separates him from every other back drafted over the last ten years.

In college, he carried Ohio State to a National Championship in 2014 by finishing off the season with, 220 yards & 2 TD’s, 230 yards & 2 TD’s, and 246 yards & 4 TD’s in three consecutive games. In those matchups Elliott put the games on ice with momentum swinging or solidifying touchdowns: an 81 yard score in the first that took the breath out of the Wisconsin Badgers, an 85 yard run in the final minutes of the fourth to put Alabama away, and three consecutive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to take from and confirm the lead over Oregon in the National Championship Game.

It is evidence like this – Elliott’s ability to break the spirit of opponents – that made his harsh comments to his former coach Urban Meyer justified when he only saw 12 carries in a season ending loss to Michigan State last season.

My argument is that Elliott is the rarest of running back breeds. When the game is close and conventional wisdom tells you to turn to your quarterback and the passing game, instead give the ball to Zeke. That’s what won Ohio State the National Championship in 2014, and not doing that is what lost it for them in 2015.

The Cowboys have learned this quicker than anyone expected and now the league is paying the price. Just look at this past Sunday… With all of the talk about rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and his case for the MVP award, who did the Cowboys turn to when they were down on the road against the Steelers? It wasn’t Dak, it wasn’t Dez, but rather it was Elliott taking the lead late in the fourth with a 14 yard score and Elliott again beating the buzzer with a game winning 32-yard scamper. How often do you ever really hear about a walk-off touchdown rush?

Currently, Zeke is on pace for nearly 1,800 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns and well over 5.0 yards per carry. He’s impressing as a receiver out of the backfield, while he also is protecting his quarterback in elite fashion as a blocker. Through all of these unbelievable stats and accomplishments, Zeke’s near indefinable ability to steal the souls of opposing defenses and change the tide of any game with a single touch is what has made him the most impactful rookie NFL player this season. He’s no longer only my fantasy MVP… Expect serious consideration for him as the league MVP when the season is all said and done.

2) …Speaking of which

Speaking of “running out of superlatives,” it seems like each and every week I’m talking about DeMarco Murray and how great he is. Well I’m not one to beat a dead horse, but I am one to keep riding a workhorse and that’s just what fantasy owners should continue to do with Murray. I spoke two weeks ago about how the Titans plan on transitioning a bit more in the backfield, and while I was clear that Murray would remain featured, I believed that Derrick Henry would start to gain traction as a legitimate fantasy flex. That still may be possible for Henry this season, but his recent injuries do not bode well for his chances. It appears that Murray just keeps getting better as the season wears on and the Titans cannot do without his excellent production. Out of their final six games, four of their opponents feature bottom-10 rush defenses… Fantasy owners better take notice.

3) Healthy, yet mediocre returns

It was an important week for fantasy owners and a couple of NFL teams, as James Starks and Doug Martin returned. While both came away with 10 points in standard leagues, the Packers were hoping for more of an impact, while the Buccaneers didn’t really get a good look at Martin because the game was pretty well in hand shortly after halftime. As fantasy owners must always remember, it is best to give a player a week or so when coming back from an extended injury in order to allow them to get their legs back. That adage was incredibly evident in Week 10. Both will see better matchups this upcoming week, as their opponents are both in the bottom-10 in rush defense. Now may be the time to take a chance on Starks and Martin once again.

4) Coach’s Choice

This past week, three NFL coaches of teams with slumping offenses made the conscious decision to redirect the focus of their game plans towards new running backs. On Thursday, we saw the emergence of Kenneth Dixon who will at worst be the third down back for this Ravens offense going forward. On Sunday, Robert Kelley successfully supplanted Matt Jones as the de facto starting running back for the Redskins, while rookie C.J. Prosise ignited an ice cold Seattle offense in a huge road win over the Patriots. All will factor into fantasy outcomes going forward, with Kelley being the most reliable pickup, Prosise serving as the best PPR addition, and Dixon having the most polish of the three. This late in the season, waiver pickups are more important than ever.

5) Playing Possum

It was just one week ago that Eagles head coach Doug Pederson admitted that Darren Sproles was his starting running back. This left Ryan Mathews owners feeling helpless, as his fantasy potential appeared as dead as road kill. As most of us know however, there is a rare breed of “road kill” – the opossum – that can appear dead, but at a moments notice, wake right back up. This past Sunday, Mathews was clearly “playing possum” with us, as he rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, despite his coach not having any plans for him to succeed.

Some may see this as a sign of relief or even good things to come, but I’m not really sure how to feel. Now this Eagles backfield appears as cloudy as ever and predicting it week to week as hard as trying to see if a possum is really dead or not. My bet is that Mathews will return to his “feature back” role, however Darren Sproles will start games and handle all passing downs. But honestly anyone’s guess is fair game right now.

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts

ELITE PLAYS

Le'Veon Bell ($8,800 on DraftKings) vs. CLE Defense

Bell may be a bit underwhelming this season in terms of yardage gained based off of his lofty standards, however he has yet to play a defense this bad. Cleveland is 31st in the league against the rush and 27th against the pass. Bell should torch them in both facets, as he is arguably the league’s best dual-threat back. The only fear here is that the game gets out of hand too early and Bell is forced to the bench in favor of the garbage time second unit. Be weary here though, as Bell is likely to be heavily owned in Week 11.

DeMarco Murray ($8,200 on DraftKings) vs. IND Defense

I’ll spare you the novel because I already have explained above and in past iterations my love for DeMarco Murray. He’s second in the NFL in rushing, has 11 total touchdowns on the season and will be taking on one of the worst defenses in the league this week against the Colts. In his last meeting with Indy, Murray eclipsed the 100-yard barrier and scored a touchdown. Expect more of the same from him in this week and beyond.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

LeGarrette Blount ($6,400 on DraftKings) vs. SF Defense

Blount is leading the NFL in touchdowns with 12 and just scored three on the ground last week. He now will head to San Francisco to take on a historically bad rush defense. I couldn’t imagine a much better matchup than this. Expect Blount to be highly owned this week, however his potential upside is just too much to pass on.

BARGAIN PLAY

Jeremy Hill ($4,400 on DraftKings) vs. BUF Defense

Hill may not be the most consistent rusher and is in a committee split backfield, but one thing that he does do is score touchdowns. He’s in the midst of a three game TD streak, while he has six total on the season. I like him this week because the Bengals will be coming home in a must win situation after back-to-back tough games on the road. I expect the Bengals to commit to the ground game hard like they did in Week 7 against the Browns in another “must win” situation. Not coincidentally, that very matchup was the last one in which Hill starred in the fantasy world.

For this week 10 contest, Cincinnati will be taking on a Buffalo defense that is bottom-12 in the league against the run, and is banged up in the front seven. Hill should score in this contest at least once, making his mere $4,400 price tag a bargain.

FLYER PLAY

Chris Ivory ($3,600 on DraftKings) vs. DET Defense

Ivory is priced near the league minimum for this week and I really cant figure out why. He’s just two weeks removed from rushing for 107 yards on nearly 6.0 yards per carry against the Chiefs, he’s the goal line back, and the featured runner in this Jags backfield committee approach. Detroit is middle of the pack against the run this season and is a franchise that is always susceptible to a letdown game. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he scored a couple of times and neared 80 yards on the ground, provided he continues to get his 15 or so touches per game. I consider that a steal at only $3,600, which is why I will be flexing him this week in my top-heavy lineups.