In the cynical view – and some would argue the realistic view – of human nature, we are all essentially selfish creatures with the ultimate goal of protecting the interests of ourselves and our kin. World renowned English philosopher Thomas Hobbes brought this to light in his book Leviathan (written in 1651), as he argued that at its very core, humans without laws and infrastructure is a natural state of war. Now he goes on to explain that because of this, humans naturally seek security – and as much of it as possible – in hopes of never being threatened by other humans looking to advance their own selfish interests.
You may be asking yourself while reading this “what the hell does this have to do with fantasy football?” and my response is simple: Hobbes’ Leviathan, and more specifically his definition of human nature (thirst for selfishness and security of self and kin) properly explain the “Contract Year Phenomenon” in American professional sports.
When financial security – which in America is paramount to the all-important “pursuit of happiness” – is on the line, the best (or most desperation) is brought out in the athletes with the most at stake.
It’s been seen time and again in the NFL, most recently with Doug Martin last season and DeMarco Murray in the year prior, and fantasy owners shouldn’t be blind to the players with the most at stake entering 2016, as I believe that it provides them with a very distinct advantage. Take a look below at the prominent players who enter this season with no secure future beyond the winter. It’s make or break, do or die, eat or starve. Expiring contracts reign supreme in the motivation business.
Notable Players in Contract Year
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins
Captain Kirk is probably the poster child for the test of Hobbes’ human nature this season, as the Redskins put out it in plain sight for him to acknowledge. With Cousins having no real track record of production outside of a one-year-wonder in 2015, Washington remained hesitant to extend him long-term and instead slapped the franchise tag on him. This is likely partially because so many other QB’s have burned them in the past – most recently their former golden boy in RGIII – however it is also because they likely secretly believe in the contract year phenomenon like us here at Fantasy Alarm.
Looking to defend their NFC East title in 2016, the Redskins knew that they would need a little extra incentive out of their still indefinable quarterback. Considering the numbers he posted last season when trying to prove his worth as a starter, imagine what Cousins could do when trying to prove his financial worth? Add that together with the Redskins improved offense, and you’ve got yourself a potential fantasy star in 2016.
Tyrod Taylor
Taylor is another interesting case here, as he too, like Cousins, just got his first crack as a starting quarterback last season. Differently from Cousins however, Taylor received mixed reviews, despite posting some really impressive numbers. In his debut season (as a starter) Taylor threw for over 3,000 yards, completed 64-percent of his passes, passed for 20 touchdowns, ran for four, threw only six interceptions, and rushed for nearly 600 yards.
Where the critique comes in is that people consider Taylor more of a game manager – in that he wasn’t the focal point of the Bills offense – rather than a quarterback who can carry the franchise. Now whether you agree with the criticism or not, the Bills have made it clear that his lack of a long-term contract stems from whether or not he can take the next step this season.
Fantasy owners should have hope. He continued to take strides each game last season and he even played well enough to make the Pro Bowl (for whatever that’s worth nowadays).
A young, progressing quarterback, with the pressure of landing a secure long-term deal should be the recipe for fantasy success in 2016. He may even have Russell Wilson upside considering their matching play styles and that Wilson’s age 26 season numbers match eerily similar to what Taylor did last season as a 26-year old. With a similar play style and emerging weapons, it wouldn’t be ridiculous to hope for Taylor to breakout this season as a 27-year old just like Wilson did at the same age in 2015.
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell
The case of Bell is a tricky one because of a few reasons. On the one hand, fantasy owners are staying away from him because he not only is coming off of an incredibly serious injury, but he also is facing a potential four-game suspension. Looking at is contrarily however would be taking into account the Hobbesian theory of human nature. With odds stacked against him, Bell knows that in 2016 – more than ever – he has to perform. He’s entering a contract season with no future financial security, he’s got to prove to the league that his potential suspension is just a misunderstanding, and he most of all has to prove that he is physically up to the task despite being put on the IR to finish up last season.
My bet would be that regardless of how many games Bell plays, we will see the most ferocious version of him yet. When guys in this league are questioned legally and know deep in their heart that they aren’t in the wrong, they typically play with an added edge. Just look at Tom Brady throughout the years of his controversies. With Bell’s reputation at stake – both physically and morally – to go along with a put up or shut up contract year, he couldn’t conceivably have more to play for in 2016. It’s always tough to bet against guys with that much to lose.
Eddie Lacy
“Fat Eddie” as Bill Simmons insultingly nicknamed him last season, is quite a mystery to many entering 2016. In one respect, it is easy to look at Lacy, his often out of shape physique, and rather underwhelming 2015 numbers and just write him off. In all honesty I myself find it hard not to go with that thought process, however what he didn’t have last season and does this season is the pressure of a contract year motivating his work ethic.
Entering this offseason, knowing his future was at stake, Lacy pulled out all the stops to get himself back into shape. From a stringent P90X regiment, to boxing, to quitting drinking, to even playing basketball with Dane Cook, Lacy was intent on dropping the “Fat” from his name amongst pundits.
He entered camp this offseason, looking trimmer than ever, reportedly slimming down from the high 260’s down to the 230’s. There is no doubt in my mind that Lacy will be more effective in 2016 than he was in 2015 due to his hard work and commitment this offseason, however fantasy owners should keep in mind that James Starks is an absolute must in terms of handcuffing the former portly running back.
Latavius Murray
A player who the scouts typically adore, Murray has yet to really pop in the NFL. Having said that, he’s only entering his third season, and while players usually get a pass during their developmental years, expectations remain considerably high for Murray because of his phenomenal physical gifts. Murray boasts the build of Derrick Henry plus sub-4.40 speed, so to say that 1,066 yards, six touchdowns, and a mere 4.0 yards per carry average last season was a let down is an understatement. Luckily for him he enters 2016 with the added motivation of a contract year, is a year wiser, and has a much-improved Raiders offensive line to run behind. This is certainly put up or shut up time for Murray despite still only being only 26-years of age. Be advised to handcuff him with rookie DeAndre Washington, who should be breathing down Murray’s neck for reps, especially on passing downs.
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery
Will the real Alshon Jeffery please stand up? Out of his four seasons, Jeffery has either played every game on the schedule or has missed a significant period of the year. Entering a contract season, Jeffery cannot afford to get injured for the second consecutive season and third time in his five NFL seasons. There is little doubt in his ability, so provided he did his due diligence in the weight room and trainers office this offseason, he should make Jay Cutler a very happy camper. Expect star-studded numbers from big no. 17 in 2016, provided of course that he can stay on the field.
Emmanuel Sanders
If Sanders has proven anything to us over the last few seasons, it’s that we shouldn’t underestimate him. Undersized and underrecruited coming out of high school, Sanders has done nothing but silence doubters along the way, proving his relevancy as a receiver and return man in the NFL. His first contract year in 2013 with the Steelers is when Sanders really popped, as he set career highs in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns. Parlaying his excellent play into a new deal with the Broncos the following season, Sanders really clicked with Peyton Manning and again set career highs in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns. With less than mediocre quarterback play out of the Broncos in 2015, Sanders still found a way to catch 76 passes for over 1,100 yards, and six touchdowns. The positive here is that Sanders proved to be effective despite awful quarterback play, which should bode well for his prospects in 2016, as no one really knows what to expect out of Mark Sanchez and potentially Trevor Siemian. Combine his natural ability to elevate QB’s with the fact that he is playing for a big pay day in 2017, we should see Sanders get over the 1,000 yard plateau by any means necessary.
Vincent Jackson
There was a stretch run during the big-bodied receiver’s career in which he went over 1,000 yards receiving in six out of seven years. At 33-years of age, that type of production is likely past him, but he no doubt is playing for his final pay day in 2016, so anything is possible here. Combine his added incentive with the fact that quarterback Jameis Winston is no longer a rookie and will be a year more polished in the red zone, Jackson should have a chance to getting back towards the seven-to-nine touchdown range once again.
Michael Floyd
Floyd has served as an excellent second option to Larry Fitzgerald throughout his first four seasons in the league – even eclipsing 1,000 yards in one season (2013) – but 2016 is all about seeing if he can take over the number one role once Fitz decides to hang ‘em up. He recognized the gravity of the situation, being quoted even as saying, “the ball is in my court” regarding his contract year.
It’s always great for fantasy owners to hear that the guys are aware of what’s at stake entering their contract season. It gives a preview of the added effort; think Rod Tidwell in Jerry Maguire… He proclaimed, “Show me the money!” and held up his end of the bargain on the field as well. Expect Floyd to take a step forward in 2016, earning a big payday from either the Cardinals or the highest bidder next offseason.
Terrance Williams
T-Will was raked over the coals in 2015, despite posting career highs in catches, targets, and yards. Mainly the criticisms came in his inability to step up as the number one receiver that Dallas needed in the absence of Dez Bryant. He struggled with drops and failed to get open in the end zone, however in his defense, the Cowboys quarterback play was at Pop Warner level once Tony Romo went down, and also Williams finished up the season in a very strong way, catching eight balls for 173 yards. Entering a contract year, Williams is likely to parlay his strong season finish into an excellent start to 2016. He’s got plenty of things working in his favor: Romo is returning healthy, Dez Bryant is returning healthy, and his motivation couldn’t be higher. Likely seeing more one-on-ones and better quarterback play than he did last season, expect 2016 to be a “bounce-back” one for T-Will.
Tight End
Jordan Cameron
Cameron really popped in 2013 when he finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end, however since he has really struggled to come anywhere near his suddenly lofty expectations. Still slotted in as the Dolphins number one tight end, Cameron has every opportunity to turn things around. Despite being only 27, make no mistake; this is Cameron’s last chance at a big time contract. Fantasy owners will be hoping that Ryan Tannehill targets him early and often this season, but hoping rarely will get you far in fantasy leagues. Be weary of Cameron, as he didn’t exactly show up big in his last contract season (10 games played, 24 catches, 48 targets, 424 receiving yards, two touchdowns).
Martellus Bennett
In his last contract year (2012), Marty-B posted his best career numbers at the time, as he compiled career highs in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns for the New York Giants. He parlayed that play into a four-year deal with the Bears and after three up and down years, he was traded to the Patriots. Looking to finish out his deal in strong fashion, Bennett couldn’t be in a much better position than playing in a Tom Brady offense. Sure he will be playing behind All-World TE Rob Gronkowski, but that never seemed to bother Aaron Hernandez when he was posting high-level fantasy numbers just a few seasons ago. Expect a bounce-back year for Bennett and a nice fresh new deal next offseason after shining in the Patriots tight end friendly system.
Jared Cook
Not only is Cook coming off of his worst season since 2010, but now he is beginning camp on the PUP list due to a sudden foot injury. With still no definite timetable to return, luckily people close to the Packers believe that he should be healthy enough to make their final four preseason games. Needless say though, this is not the way that you want to A) join a new team or B) kick off a contract year. Starting the season injured and as the second TE on the depth chart behind Richard Rodgers, be weary of Cook in 2016. All he really has going for him is his naturally gifted athleticism and the all-important contract year phenomenon.
Notably Omitted
Drew Brees
I left out Brees here because contract year or not, the guy always balls the f*** out. He’s good for near 5,000 yards and 30-plus touchdowns getting out of bed in the morning, and while he may be getting older, he has yet to show signs of slowing down despite losing a ton of weapons over the years. If his play is particularly good this year, the contract year phenomenon certainly has nothing to do with it. He was born with a chip on his shoulder.
Larry Fitzgerald
The same really goes for Fitz here, as he has soldiered through a carousel of quarterbacks throughout his accomplished career, yet his numbers remain pretty consistent. Expect tons of targets coming his way once again, likely with Fitz featured in more slot/H-back sets like the Cards previewed in 2015.