Latavius Murray – RB – Oakland Raiders
3rd season – 6’3” – 230 lbs
2014 Stats: Rushing- 424 yards, 2 TDs/Receiving- 17 receptions, 143 yards, 0 TD
Pluses – Murray is a physical specimen, there is simply no other way to put it. He’s big, strong and has breakaway speed, a trio not typically seen molded into one running back. His fantasy relevance started to begin when he ran for 43 yards on just four carries and caught three passes for 16 yards against the San Diego Chargers in week 11. The following week, he erupted for 112 yards and two touchdowns on just four carries, aided by a 90-yard touchdown scamper. After that breakout performance, he totaled 75 or more yards in four of the last five games, but was unable to reach the end zone after week 12. While nothing has been made official, Murray should be the team’s lead back come Week 1. All he has to do is beat out Trent Richardson and Roy Helu, something that shouldn’t be extremely hard for a player like Murray. Barring anything crazy, he will be the team’s starter, receiving most of the carries, which bodes well for his fantasy value in 2015. Sure, he only saw 82 carries last season, but the fact that he averaged 5.2 yards per carry can’t go unnoticed. Hypothetically speaking, if he were to have had enough carries to qualify, his 5.2 average would have been second best among running backs, trailing only Baltimore’s Justin Forsett. He has shown to be extremely effective when given the ball, even dating back to his days at the University of Central Florida. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry during his college career, showing that he was effective and efficient at UCF as well. Murray has all the tools to be a successful running back and not only is his potential undeniable, but he is irresistible to many fantasy owners.
Minuses – Just like many players, there are some chinks in Murray’s armor. The first being his inability to stay healthy. He had two surgeries after 2013 on his ankle and he suffered a concussion last season. Murray has all the tools, which is great, but if he’s not on the field, he isn’t helping your fantasy team whatsoever. He has just 82 professional carries (all in 2014), so we don’t exactly have a large sample size to gauge Murray. For being a running back of his stature and speed, Murray doesn’t break a ton of tackles. In 2014, on 99 touches (82 carries, 17 receptions) he broke just three tackles. His broken tackle per touch percentage of 3 percent was the lowest among players with a minimum of 80 touches. On the other hand, Helu broke 21 tackles on 82 touches and his 25.6 percent broken tackle per touch made him the third-highest. Helu could see quite a few third down touches and he is the second best running back in Oakland. For running backs, the league average was right around 10 percent, putting Murray well below the league average in regards to breaking tackles. Another thing going against Oakland backs, yet again, is that the team’s run blocking isn’t that great. From a statistical standpoint, the team protects the quarterback pretty well, but they are adequate at best when opening holes for their running back. Put together the injuries, inability to break tackles and lackluster offensive line, Murray could be a letdown, given where he is being drafted.
Summary – Murray is going to be the starter for this team, barring any unforeseen incident in the preseason. Even though Helu is in town, he isn’t a threat to take the starting spot, but he could see some third down work. When he was healthy and on the field, Murray was pretty consistent in terms of yardage. However, what hurts Murray is the fact that since the Raiders are a below-average team, they often have to abandon the running game in an effort to quickly catch the opposition. Hopefully he can take a step forward in the passing game this year and impact the passing attack more so than he did in 2014. There is no doubting that Murray is a beast from a physical standpoint, and he has all the skills that can equate to fantasy stardom. He easily has top-10 potential this season, but the opportunity for a bust looms just as large for the Oakland running back. He is going to be drafted as a No. 2 back for many teams, but make sure you have a solid third option, because Murray is going to miss games at some point this season.
2015 Projection
Rushing: 12 games, 824 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: 12 games, 29 receptions, 206 yards, 2 TD