Vincent Jackson – WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11th season – 6’5” – 230 lbs
2014 Stats: 70 receptions, 1,002 yards, 2 TDs
Pluses – Even though he barely eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in 2014, he was able to extend his streak to four straight seasons of exceeding the aforementioned threshold. Since 2008, there has been just one season he didn’t tally more than 1,000 yards. That year was 2010, his penultimate season as a member of the San Diego Chargers when he played just five games. When it comes to finding the end zone, Jackson has notched seven or more touchdowns in three of the last four seasons. He mustered just two touchdowns last year, but that can be attributed to spotty quarterback play and a brilliant rookie season from teammate Mike Evans. The fact that he was non-existent in the red zone in 2014 was an abnormality for Jackson, given that he recorded 24 touchdowns from 2011-2013. Josh McCown and Mike Glennon ran the offense last season for the Bucs, and they combined to complete just 56.7-percent of their passes. That percentage was the third lowest in all of football, ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals (56.3) and the Cleveland Browns (54.6) The Bucs took Jameis Winston first overall in this year’s draft and he has to be better than McCown and Glennon were last season. At Florida State, Winston completed 66-percent of his passes and even though he will be facing better defenses in the NFL, his completion percentage this season should be higher than Tampa Bay’s 56.7-percent in 2014. Although Evans was the better fantasy asset last year, Jackson’s 143 targets led the team, but were also good enough for eighth most in all of football last season. He has averaged just under 150 targets over the past three seasons, and with the expectation of improved quarterback play, Jackson should surpass 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season and be more of a threat in the red zone than last year.
Minuses – Jackson found the end zone just twice in 2014. In any season in which he played 15 or more games, his 1,002 yards and two touchdowns were his fewest since 2007. If you average his totals from 2011-2013, here is Jackson’s stat line: 70 receptions, 1,238 yards and 8 TDs. Other than the receptions, his 2014 season was significantly different from his averages over the prior three seasons. His 14.3 average yards per reception was the lowest of his 10-year career. From a statistical standpoint, everything went wrong for Jackson in 2014. While he has put up five seasons of seven or more touchdowns, he has yet to cross the threshold of double-digit touchdowns in a single season. However, Evans did it in rookie year. Since 2012 only three teams have produced a pair of wide receivers with double-digit touchdowns in a single season. Those teams were quarterbacked by Peyton Manning (’12, ’13, ’14), Aaron Rodgers (’14) and Andy Dalton (’13). It’s tough to expect a rookie like Winston to complete such a task, and seeing that he didn’t even do it in college, the odds aren’t in his favor of achieving it in his first professional season. Despite the fact that Jackson has the better—and longer—track record of success in the NFL, Evans’ huge rookie season could have many thinking that he is the new No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay.
Summary – With 2014 being such a statistical anomaly for the veteran wideout, Jackson should bounce back in 2015. Anytime a receiver is playing with a rookie quarterback, there is going to be some risk involved, but the Bucs wouldn’t have selected Winston with the first pick if they didn’t think he would make the team better immediately upon entering the huddle. Jackson has a large wingspan and Winston should be able to exploit that much more than McCown or Glennon ever could. Over the last four seasons, he has dropped 22 passes, which is inflated due to dropping nine passes in 2013 (T-3 most in the NFL). He dropped an absurd amount in 2013, but he should never reach total again. Once he catches the football, he is one of the most reliable receivers in all of football. Since entering the league in 2005, he has fumbled just three times. He is physically imposing and standing at 6’5” gives him the advantage on jump balls. Rookie quarterbacks love tall receivers, and Winston will have both Jackson and Evans at his disposal. Jackson makes for a quality third receiver in fantasy leagues this year, but he does have the upside of a WR2. He is going to end the season right around 70 or so receptions, but expect a slight increase in yards and a sizable increase in touchdowns. Draft him as your No. 3 receiver and hope that Winston looks his way in the red zone.
2015 Projection
71 receptions, 1,072 yards, 6 TDs