DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Houston Texans
3rd season – 6’1” – 218 lbs
2014 Stats: 76 receptions, 1,210 yards, 6 TDs
Pluses – Hopkins is coming off an excellent 2014 season, which saw him finish the season as the No. 15 wide receiver in fantasy football. Even with Andre Johnson in town, Hopkins usurped Johnson as the go-to guy in Houston, but the two made for an above average receiver duo in the league. Although Johnson caught more passes and saw more targets, Hopkins was more touted in the fantasy realm. Hopkins totaled 274 more yards and three more TDs than Johnson and was the better fantasy play all year. He had four games with 100 or more receiving yards (238 yards in week 13) and caught a touchdown pass in five different games. His average per reception was 15.9 yards for the 2014 campaign, trailing only T.Y. Hilton (16.4) for players with 70 or more receptions. When it comes to the big play, Hopkins can get it done. His 20 receptions of 20 or more yards ranked in the top ten of all wide receivers last season. After catching the ball, Hopkins can be just as good. Of his 1,210 receiving yards last season, 387 came after the catch, good enough for 19th among wide receivers. He should see a lot more screen passes designed for him, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him surpass 400 yards after the catch in 2015. Whether it was Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ryan Mallet, Hopkins was the guy when the team needed to move the chains. His 57 catches to get the first down led the Texans, with Andre Johnson registering just 49. Another trait that Hopkins is highly regarded for are his great hands. Hopkins was targeted 127 times last season, caught 76 of them and dropped only four passes. The injury to Arian Foster is going to open the door for more opportunities for Hopkins and with the unknown quarterback situation, Houston could find themselves losing often late in games. If that is the case, Hopkins will have some extra chances to catch the football. Keep in mind that he will face the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans a total of four times this season. He didn't have much of an impact against the Jaguars, but on the other hand, he decimated the Titans in week 13 last season, catching nine passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns. Entering his third professional season, he is a do-it-all kind of receiver that is capable of being the top option on his team. He is an elite talent himself, but it's scary for the rest of the league that there is still plenty of room for improvement for the 23-year old.
Minuses – Quarterback. Yet again, Houston will be playing with an average quarterback at best. Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett are fighting for the starting spot. Yikes. Neither will be a worthy fantasy option themselves, but Hopkins produced with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mallett last season, so he should be able to again this season. However, with Johnson heading to Indianapolis, the Texans lack a proven second wide receiver. There is no question that Hopkins is the go-to guy, but the battle for the No. 2 gig is between Nate Washington, Cecil Shorts and third-round draft pick Jaelen Strong. In 2014, Washington caught 40 passes for 647 yards with two touchdowns. Not exactly great production, but what he does bring to Houston is durability and experience. He hasn’t missed a game in nine professional seasons. On the other hand, Shorts had a great sophomore season in the NFL, but since then his numbers have dropped considerably. Neither of the two veterans are going to do much to take any attention away from Hopkins, but Strong has the best chance to complete such a task. Even though Strong undoubtedly has the best fantasy potential among these three guys, the team could elect to go with experience over potential to begin the season. Now that Foster is injured, the opposition is going to focus the majority of their attention on slowing down Hopkins. Since the quarterback situation in Houston is less than appealing, Hopkins will be more inconsistent than the elite wideouts in the league. Looking back to last season, he had six games where he caught less than five passes and there were two four-game stretches where he failed to find the end zone. Seeing as he only dropped four passes last season, the below average quarterback play takes a lot of blame for Hopkins’ inconsistencies.
Summary – If someone told you last season that Hopkins would finish just behind Calvin Johnson in total fantasy points, you probably would have laughed at them and never listened to any of their opinions about football ever again. There is a quite a bit to worry about with Hopkins, but those qualms should be downsized, seeing as he produced last year in a similar situation. Many analysts tab the third year receiver as a prime breakout candidate and that theory held true for some in 2014. Hilton and Rueben Randle had breakout campaigns in their third professional season, while Alshon Jeffery and Michael Floyd saw an improvement in the touchdown department. Well, Hopkins is gearing up for his third professional season and he has been much better than the other two receivers drafted in the first round with him (Tavon Austin and Cordarrelle Patterson). Even if Hopkins were to just replicate last season’s numbers with an increased total of touchdowns, fantasy owners would be beyond happy. Sure, he could—and probably will—be the focus of rolled coverages and double teams, but the fact that he is the best receiver on the team will force Bill O’Brien to make sure the ball gets in Hopkins’ hands. He shouldn’t be drafted as your No. 1 wide receiver, but he will make for an excellent second wide receiver this season. He has top-10 potential, but he is going to need solid quarterback play, which could be tough for Hoyer and Mallett.
2015 Prediction
85 receptions, 1,201 yards, 8 TDs