Some offensive performances from players who could make the difference down the stretch highlight this week’s Week That Was.
Matt Chapman: Matt Chapman went 1-4 Sunday but that one was a 3-run tater. On the year, the Oakland rookie has an unimpressive .227 average. However, he is heating up. Over the last 15 games, Chapman is hitting close to .300 and has 3 dingers, 13 RBI and 10 runs scored. That kind of production will win you a lot of fantasy league titles. Oh, and that yearlong solid 10% BB rate does not hurt either. Keeper and re-draft leagues alike should be looking hard at Chapman if he is still on your waiver wire.
Avisail Garcia: Avisail Garcia went 2-5 with a run and two RBI Sunday. He has picked up right where he left off when he went on the DL. In other words, the breakout season continues. On the year, Garcia is hitting .310 with an OBP over .350. In the last 5 games he has played, Garcia is 9-20 with 4 runs and 4 RBI. That is exactly the kind of production we have come to expect this year from the guy once called “Baby Miggy” and exactly the kind of production that wins fantasy baseball titles.
Cory Spangenberg: Cory Spangenberg went yard twice Sunday, finishing the day 2-4 with 2 runs and 3 RBI. Those were HR 9 and 10 on the year but that does not tell the story. The 26 year old has his average over .270 and it is climbing. Moreover, Cory qualifies at 2b, 3b and OF in most leagues. Oh and if you want to peek at the advanced metrics, you will see a guy going oppo more often, hitting the ball harder than he has before and hitting more line drives than in years’ past. Bottom line – this is a very valuable guy to own if you are in a pennant race.
Neil Walker: Neil Walker played 3B and batted clean up for the Brewers on Sunday. He delivered by going 2-4 with a run scored. Forget the advanced metrics. I want a piece of a player who goes from bad team to good team, from pitcher’s park to hitter’s park and who will qualify at both 2b and 3b. Buy.
Tim Beckham: Last week we wrote “Tim Beckham went 1-4 with a RBI Sunday. Yep, that is not really special so why mention it you ask? Well, in the 6 games he has played for the O’s he is 13 for 24 with 6 runs and 6 RBI. That is a full season pace of 162 RBI and 162 runs. Of course, Beckham is not that good but sometimes a change of scenery for a talented player is all that is needed for a switch to flip. Oh, and in this case, Beckham goes from a pitcher’s park in Tampa to a hitters’ haven in Baltimore. Forget the advanced metrics on this one and go with your gut (or at least mine). Buy!” Well, I hope you listened. In the last week, Beckham went 11-25 with 7 runs and 3 RBI. Not too shabby for a guy who was likely on the waiver wire. Lesson: sometimes non-numerical analysis pays dividends.
And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “There may not have been a more surprising story in The First Half That Was then Aaron Judge, the emerging Triple Crown threat that served as the face of the Baby Bombers from the Bronx. Going into the All-Star break with a mighty .329, 30 HR and 66 RBIs, every keeper league roto-owner that acquired him salivated over the gaudy statistics they lucked into over the next few years. (Yes. Lucked into. Not a single roto-pundit or true-life baseball scribe foresaw Judge's first half). However. not even the vaunted Yankee mystique could save Judge from the Home Run Derby curse. Bobby Abreu was never the same after winning the 2005 title over All Star Weekend and Todd Frazier's "victory lap" saw him hit .220 with 10 HR 32 RBI in the second half. obscuring a .284 25 HR 57 RBI first half. Even the mighty Giancarlo Stanton wasn't immune, although injuries contributed to his 7 HR second half after taking the 2016 title.
Raising the question of just how fluky was Judge's first half, he has hit .161 with 5 HR and 12 RBIs since the All-Star Break. To put that in perspective, both Stanton and Nelson Cruz have exceeded those stats in just this past week. To makes matters worse, Judge has whiffed 43 times in 118 plate appearances. For those who like math, that's one strike out every 2.7 times Judge walks up to home plate. For as much as Judge may have buoyed roto-teams to the top of their standings, he is now the ballast sinking them towards the bottom. Frankly, as the Overlord will undoubtedly disagree with below since Judge is one of his beloved Yankees, there doesn't seem to be any reason to think Judge will pull out of this tailspin in time to make a difference this year. His value right now is limited solely to keeper leagues.
Joining Judge on the "2018 Can't Come Soon Enough" bench is A's future phenom Sean Manaea. In the first half, the Oakland hurler posted a promising 3.79 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while striking out a batter an inning. However, since the All-Star break, Manaea has been beyond putrid. In fact, it's possible the English language may not have a suitable word to explain how dreadful Manaea has pitched. (Disgraciada might be a fair Spanish description if said with the right amount of disgust). As if a 7.52 ERA, 1.94 WHIP wasn't terrible enough, his lasted just 1/3 of an inning in his last start, surrendering 6 hits, a walk and 6 earned runs. There are infinitely better days ahead for the Oakland southpaw, they just probably won't occur this season.”
Response: It is hard to argue with the notion that Aaron Judge was amazing in the first half and has well, not been in the second half. It is also hard to argue with the HR Derby curse. However, I disagree with two points. First, Judge has value in roto pennant races this year (even over a very tough last 30 games, he has a solid .330+ OBP – which would translate into a lot of runs if the Yankee bats had not gone stone cold all together). Second, while he may not have predicted the precise level of success, our friend Ian Kahn (best known as George Washington on AMCs’ Turn but a phenomenal fantasy baseball mind) did predict big time success for Aaron Judge BEFORE the season.