Three draft day picks we are proud of, three we are not, and the lessons learned from same highlight this week’s Week That Was.

PROUD

Marcell Ozuna:  In the NFBC, team Colton & the Wolfman picked up the Marlins OF and boy has he made us look good.  On the year, Ozuna is hitting .316 with 23 dingers and 70 RBI.  The outlook for continued success in the second half is strong.  Ozuna is hitting the ball harder, going oppo more often and hitting more line drives than he did a year ago.  What did we see that made us roster Ozuna?  First, the Rules of Engagement say that players who make the majors at a young age and have accumulated substantial at bats by age 26 are likely to jump to another level.  Coming into 2017, Ozuna had almost 1700 ABs in the bigs despite being only 26!  Second, Ozuna had reduced his K rate and increased his contact rate in 2016 – a sign of maturity.  Third, Ozuna worked closely with Barry Bonds, even adopting use of his light bad to generate bat speed.  That type of soft information is precisely the kind that can help support statistical reasons to invest in a player.

Felipe Rivero:   Thus far this year, the Pirates hurler has been great with a 0.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts in 47 innings.  The outlook for the second half is strong.  Not only has Rivero ascended to the closer role, he has increased his velocity, swinging strike rate and ground ball rate to even higher elite numbers.  So, what did we see pre-season?  First, we saw elite advanced metrics – 16% swinging strike rate, 48% ground ball rate and a fastball close to 96mph on average.  Second, we knew that a full off-season and spring training with pitching guru Ray Searage could only help Rivero refine his craft, including his ground ball tendencies.  Third, given that we already had rostered Tony Watson and his shaky hold on the closer role, adding another Pirate lefty for insurance just made sense.  Yeah it did!

Mike Moustakas:  The Royals 3B is raking thus far this year to the tune of .270 with 25 HR and 54 RBI.  Is this going to continue into the second half? Yessir.  Moose has actually been unlucky with his .254 BABIP and his HR/FB rate is not much different than last year.  So, what did we see coming into 2017.  First, Moose was incredibly unlucky last year as his .216 BABIP will attest.  Second, he was coming off injury but a knee injury, not hands, wrist, back or shoulder that could sap power.  Third, with the departure of Kendrys Morales, there was room at DH should that knee heal more slowly.  Finally, it was a contract year and Moose was surely looking to get paid.  Now he will.

NOT SO PROUD

Noah Syndergaard:   Well, the great Thor cost a ton of money in pre-season auctions and he as provided all of 28 innings and 1 win. Ugh.  Worse, there is now talk of him returning, if he returns at all in 2017, as a reliever.  Lesson learned: stay away from Mets pitching.  Clearly the team is doing something wrong if every one of their valuable arms gets hurt consistently.  Next year, I will pull a Jason Collette and literally walk out of the auction room when a Mets starter is put up for bid and the bidding exceeds $5.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me over and over again, well, only expletives inappropriate for this column would suffice.

Daniel Norris:  The Tigers lefty had not delivered at all in 2017 as his 5.29 ERA and 1.67 WHIP will attest.  Is there hope for a rebound this year?  Well, he has been unlucky with BABIP and strand rate and his velocity has held.  However, his xFIP and SIERA both are close to 5.00 so that offers little solace.  Oh and the fact that he is getting behind hitters and inducing fewer swinging strikes is not exciting either.  So, why did we pick Norris.  Well, he posted a solid 10% swinging strike rate last year with a 14% number in September.  Also, he was throwing his slider harder and was getting ahead of hitters at a solid 64% first pitch strike rate.  What did we miss?  Well, his xFIP was much higher than his ERA which is always a warning sign.  Also, the strand rate says he was a little lucky in 2016.  Finally, I think we underestimated the problems caused by the questionable defense and lack of a centerfielder in Detroit.  Is it really a wonder that Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Verlander, and Matt Boyd – 4/5 of the Tigers opening day rotation – are having subpar years?  The T in SMART stands for Team and we were not SMART. 

Addison Russell:   The Cubs shortstop has disappointed in the first half hitting only .226 with 7 HR and only 29 RBI.  This on the heels of a 21 HR, 95 RBI campaign in 2016.  What attracted us to Russell.  First, he is on a team expected to score often.  Second, he was actually unlucky with a sub-.280 BABIP in 2016.  Third, even though he is only 23, he already had 1,000 at-bats in the big leagues.  So, can Russell turn it around in 2017?  Well, the advanced metrics all look similar to last year, so an increase in power but a weak batting average could well be in the cards.  For me the biggest impediment is the ever-shifting lineup.  Joe Madden knows more about baseball and managing than I could ever learn and has a ring to prove it.  However, from a pure fantasy perspective, the fact that Russell does not play full time cannot help him get on a hot streak or to accumulate HR and RBI to help your team.  So, what did we miss here?  Well, honestly, I do not know.  The pedigree is there.  The advanced metrics did not scream regression.  The age and experience were right.  I think we just chalk this one up to no matter how good the analysis, not all picks will work out.

And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “Even though The Week That Was ideally would be a column about looking back at the week that just was, in practicality, it’s about looking ahead to the week that will be. Praising roto-owners for having a good week seems more like padding egos and commiserating with those that had a bad week seems more like a support group. If you are a Matt Damon looking for a hug from Robin Williams, Schultz says “it’s not your fault, it’s not your fault, it’s not your fault.” If you are looking for a little prophecy to help you in the second half, Schultz says look no further than the Tampa Bay Rays starting rotation.

With all the attention being focused to the surging Red Sox, the toddling Bombers and the periodically mighty Orioles, it’s easy to forget about the East coast team from down South. (Everyone is right to ignore the Blue Jays and should continue to do so until further notice). Given his prodigious strikeout potential, Chris Archer remains the centerpiece of any Rays roto-discussion. However, it’s been quite some time since he’s put up the other numbers that would make him the centerpiece of any roto-rotation. It’s the peripheral pieces of Tampa’s staff that could assist savvy roto-owners in the second half.

Prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery, Alex Cobb was in the midst of solidifying a reputation as a solid, dependable pitcher. It’s taken him a little longer than many would have liked, however, his June/July outings, while not flawless, indicate that he may be regaining his sub 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP reliability. If you are rightfully tired of waiting for Jake Odorizzi to claim his birthright as a future star, cast your gaze upon Blake Snell and/or Jacob Faria. For both young hurlers, the lights-out, K-per-inning arsenal is enough to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The fact that the Rays seem committed to making that happen now, rather than later, is enough to make it a savvy roto-option for the second half.

Enjoy the All-Star break. Next week the Mid-Season All-Schultz Awards!!”

Response:  I know uber-Rays fan Jason Collette is smiling if he is reading this (and of course he is right?).  I hate to agree with Schultz.  I really hate it!  But, Faria is the real deal and Snell is just a touch of command away from stardom.