Underrated fantasy performances in the Padre Outfield highlight this Week’s Week That Was.
Matt Kemp: Matt Kemp had a nice start to the second half going 2-3 with a dinger. He followed that up with a 1-4 and 2 RBI the next night. So far this year, Kemp is hitting .254 with 9 HR. Neither of those stats excites anyone. However, he does have 50 RBI, 45 runs scored and 8 SB. In fact, over the last two weeks, Kemp has been hot, raking at a .298 clip with a lofty .938 OPS. Kemp is no longer the superstar many predicted would go 40-40 every year. However, he is far better than the derision he has received in fantasy circles. Indeed the advanced metrics say the uptick should continue as his contact rate is up from last year and his BABIP is actually 30+ points below his three year average. Bottom line: hold if you own, buy low if you can.
Justin Upton: Sticking with the Padres and the unfairly overly criticized -- Justin Upton went yard for the 15th time Friday. That .252 average is not pretty but with 15 HR, 17 SB, 49 RBI and 47 runs, Upton has been more than productive in 2015. The question of course is what to expect from here on. Well, the bad news is that J-Up is hitting a paltry .167 over the last month. The good news is that his walk rate is up, K rate is down, and BABIP is depressed compared to years’ past. This means that the solid numbers he has provided actually should get better. Now, if he ends up getting traded to a better hitting park, lookout. Just imagine the check swing homers he could hit in a place like Camden Yards! I am buying Upton now and will be paying a premium should he get traded to a place where the ball actually carries.
Jose Igleasias: Jose Igleasias started the second half nicely going 1-3 with a dinger, 3 RBI, 2 runs and a swipe. He followed that up with a 4-4 performance on Sunday. Thus far, the supposedly glove only SS is hitting a sweet .321 for the Tigers. Can we expect more of the same in the second half? I say yes. First, Iglesias hit .303 in 2013 for the Bosox so success is no stranger. Moreover, the advanced metrics all show how he has grown up as a hitter. His BB rate is up from 3.9% to 6.1% this year. His K rate is down from 15.7% to 9.2% and his contact rate is up at the lofty 90% level. Iglesias will not make the Tigers forget Alan Trammel but will provide solid production at this scarce position. Buy!
Mike Moustakas: Mike Moustakas is 4-13 with a dinger and 3 RBI to start the second half. Basically, he has picked up right where he left off. On the year, Moose is hitting .297 with a .354 OBP. The power numbers are not lofty but given that average and on base percentage, 8 HR will not kill your team. Given that the 3B’s contact rate is way up and his K rate way down, you can expect the solid AVG/OBP numbers to continue. At 26 and in his 5th year in the big leagues, it is not surprising to see the mature plate approach develop and pay dividends. I am in on the Moose!
Sonny Gray: Sonny Gray would rather do over his start to the second half. The Oakland righty gave up 5 runs and allowed 8 baserunners over 6 innings against the Twins. I am not worried and more than willing to give Sonny a mulligan. Even with the clunker, Gray now sports a very strong line: 10-4 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 112/33 K/BB rate. More of the same should follow. Gray’s velocity is holding up just fine, his BBs are down and K’s are up. When you add in that his GB% remains elite at over 55% and add in the fact that his swinging strike percentage is up, I would not sweat the low BABIP. Gray is a hurler to own for the remainder of this year and beyond.
Trevor Plouffe: Trevor Plouffe started the second half off with a bang -- a grand slam Friday as part of a 2-4 day. On the year, Trevor is hitting only .259 but has produced 12 HR and 50 RBI at the hot corner. Given what it likely cost to roster Plouffe (read little), those who did have to be pleased. Now the question is what to expect in the second half. Well, first, we know there is no threat Miguel Sano will play 3B any time soon as the Twins only DH’d him before he got hurt. Second, given the contact percentage of 80, there is little risk Plouffe’s average will fall to a level that will do damage to a roto squad. Third, the power production is likely real given his 52 HR over the last three years preceding 2015. I would not pay a king’s ransom but if the price is right, Plouffe makes a fine CI in fantasy.
C.J. Wilson: C.J. Wilson delivered 8 scoreless innings Friday against the hapless Red Sox. Sell! Sell now! Yes, the 3.59 ERA is ok and yes, the 102K are nice. However, the 1.20 WHIP is illusory. He has not posted a WHIP under 1.34 since 2011. Given that his first pitch strike percentage remains under 60% it is hard to believe the low walks (for him) will continue. Moreover, the fact that his GB% has dropped substantially means more flyballs and thus more dingers and more damage. I would not panic but I would sell high now if I could.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “I am on vacation this week. More Schultzisms when I return to the Week That Was next week!”
Response: Even the Carlton the Doorman of fantasy sports deserves a day off once in a while!