First half duds/second half studs highlight this Week’s Week That Was.

Carlos Santana:   I admit it. I was ALL in on Santana this pre-season.  Indeed, I own him on almost every team I manage or co-manage (other than the NL-only team of course).   I also admit that so far, I have been dead wrrrr ….wrrrr ….wrong (wow that was tough to type).  Rather than build on a strong 2014 second half, Santana has been a manifest disappointment thus far in 2015.  That said, I still believe a 2015 second half rebound is not only possible, but very likely.  Despite his weak surface stats, Carlos has reduced his strikeout rate and increased his contact rate.  So with better contact and more balls in play this year, why is his batting average so low?  Well, that .249 BABIP surely has something to do with it (the league average BABIP is .300).  That BABIP will likely correct and assuming the contact continues to be strong, a batting average correction will follow.  Indeed, Santana has already started that rebound by hitting .303 in the first 12 days of July.  To ask the question is a leading way: should you invest in a switch hitter eligible at 1B and 3B who is undervalued and already started the rebound?  I vote yes!

Robinson Cano:  Yeah yeah yeah, I know, my roto love affair with Robbie Cano is well documented.  Well, in my defense, for the last 9 years, it has been a blissful and fulfilling roto-relationship with Robbie hitting .297 or better in 8 of the last 9 years.  Alas, all relationships hit potholes at some point.  That point for Robbie and me in roto is the first half of 2015 in which Cano’s performance can only charitably be called disappointing.  Should I cut bait?  Is it time to move on to a shiny new toy at 2B?  No!  Robbie has shown signs of life recently.  He has hit.276 over the last two weeks (hardly great, but still a big step in the right direction).  Moreover, once the calendar hit July, Cano started hitting far fewer grounders and far more flyballs.  That can only lead to better results, more extra base hits and more RBI.  Cano is in his prime, plays a scarce position and has an almost unparalleled track record of health and consistency.  Hold if you own, buy low if you can.

Rick Porcello:   Loyal listeners to Colton and the Wolfman on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210 XM 87) know that I am the lone survivor on the good ship Porcello as both the Wolfman and the First Lady of Fantasy (the real brains of the operation, Stacie Stern) have given up on the Bosox hurler and want to vote him off CTW Island.  Well, I continue to say “not so fast”.  Yes, I know his ERA is a gross 5.92 this year.  However, so many advanced stats say Porcello will improve substantially in the second half.  First, his velocity is up.  Second, he is striking out far more hitters than in years past (7 per 9 innings this year as opposed to just 5.67 last year).  Third, he is getting more whiffs as shown by the sharp increase in Porcello’s swinging strike percentage.  Fourth, Porcello’s strand rate is way down while he HR per FB is way up.  Both of those metrics demonstrate bad luck which is bound to correct.  Thus, it is no surprise that despite the ugly 5.92 ERA, Porcello’s xFIP is under 4.00.  I rarely tell folks to disagree with the Wolfman and NEVER tell folks to disagree with the First Lady, her highness Ms. Stern, however, I am going to do that now.  Those in AL-only leagues should buy low on Porcello.  He can probably be had for a song.  If so, sing.

Jonathan Lucroy:  Only Buster Posey was consistently coming off draft board before Jonathan Lucroy among catchers this spring.  There was good reason for that.  Over the last three seasons, Lucroy had averaged .282 with 14 HR and 61 RBI (strong numbers for a catcher who sits more often than other hitters and who plays a position that causes him to take a beating no other position takes).  However, due to injury and a slow start post-injury, Lucroy finished the first half with a weak .242 average and just 2 HR.  Should you quit?  Sell while you can?  Um, no.  Lucroy is still making great contact (85%) and still shows a sharp batting eye as his 9+% walk rate demonstrates.  I like Lucroy to be a top performer among catchers in the second half even if Milwaukee sells off assets around him.    

Justin Verlander:   The talk this spring was that Justin Verlander should be given a mulligan for 2014 because of the abdominal surgery that cost him his typical off-season and pre-season regimen.  Admittedly, I bought into that.  I also privately thought that once his relationship with Kate Upton (which he has to live out in the public eye) exited the honeymoon phase, he would be even more committed to baseball than ever before.  Well, so much for that.  Verlander got hurt before 2015 really started and washed out of the first half.  Many are writing off the former Cy Young and MVP winner.  I am not.  Verlander is throwing plenty hard – averaging 93 on his fastball.  He has also been very unlucky thus far as his HR/FB rate is literally double of what it was last year.  Moreover, his strand rate of 66.7 shows more lack of luck.  If he continues to throw hard, has the luck factors even out and gets into a groove starting every five days the rest of the way, a bargain you will have! 

Alex Rios:  Like many on this list, Alex Rios had a first half of 2015 to forget.  Indeed before the season even got rolling, Rios found himself on the shelf with a hand injury.  As with many hitters who suffer hand injuries, success has been elusive for Rios.  Indeed, in the first 6 weeks back from his hand injury Rios hit an ugly .238 with just 1 HR and 6 SB.  Panic? Sell?  Heck no.  Rios has hit .348 over the last week and is making contact at a higher rate this year (83%).  Moreover, he is hitting fewer GB than last year and sports a strong 23% line drive rate.  Finally, with the injury to Alex Gordon, the Royals can and will be more patient with Rios and give him the opportunity to get his groove back.  Will he hit for big power in the second half of 2015?  Probably not.  Will he steal a bunch of bases?  Probably.  This is a player has 80+ SB over last three years and plays for the go-go Royals.  Hold if you own, buy low if you can.

Alexei Ramirez:   The Cuban Missile has been a dud in the first half with his weak .224 average.  Will Ramirez step it up in the second half?  I think so.  Over the last two weeks, he has started on that road hitting by .256 (not great, but still much improved from .224).   Reasons for my optimism include that his contact rate is still elite at 89%; he has been unlucky as the .250 BABIP shows and his consistency of hitting .265+ seven years in a row says that .224 average will improve.  Even if all does not go well for Ramirez, he still plays a weak position (SS) and is a virtual lock to steal close to 20 bags again this year.

Victor Martinez:  Another injury situation.  Another bad first half result.  At the midway point, VMart is hitting well below his norm at .272 and has swatted only 5 HR.  That is the bad news. The good news is that VMart is starting to look like the VMart of old.  Remember what happened when he finally got healthy in the 2d half of 2013 after missing all of 2012 – he hit .361 with a .900+ OPS.  Will he hit .361 in the second half of 2015?  Well, that is asking a lot.  However, a .300+ average is well within range.  VMart’s 2015 contact rate still elite at 90%.  When you combine elite contact with that middling .272 average, you are likely to see bad luck as the culprit.  Voila!  VMart’s 2015 BABIP is the lowest of his career at .283.  Indeed, he has never posted a mark below .310 and his BABIP is usually much higher than that.  Even a return to his previous career low of .310 will push his batting average up substantially.  Look for a solid next month and then a very strong last 6 weeks once VMart is reunited with Miggy in the Tiger lineup.

Jeff Samardzija:   The Shark has taken a lot of abuse from the roto pundits for his 4.02 ERA.  Yes, that is higher than it should be but to be fair, 102K in the first half is pretty darn solid.  I know, you are thinking “blah blah blah” and want to know what to expect the rest of the way.  Well, here are some good reasons for optimism:  Samardzija’s average fastball velocity is holding strong at 94 mph+; his strand rate of 68% shows some back luck which should improve; his walk rate is down from a year ago; and last but not least, the Shark has been swimming beautifully in his last 6 starts posting a 2.40 ERA with 39K against just 8 BB.  Good things await Shark owners for the second half of 2015.  If he ends up getting traded to a better park than the Cell (and almost all are better parks), that will only help the outlook.  Buy! 

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “No matter how many stats are crushed by all the wonks, engineers and Moneyball fanatics, in some form or fashion, all roto-heads are superstitious. Do we doubt Schultz? If so, ask yourself why you pay attention to who goes on the cover of each year's Madden Football and why you would think twice about drafting them with an equally attractive option on the table. If there is such a thing, baseball's version of The Curse is the Home Run Derby. Maybe it's the biomechanics of changing your swing to go for the fences or just the Baseball Gods way of thumbing their nose at an event that now feels like a relic of the Steroids Era.

The performances that immediately come to mind from Derby's of the past like those of Bobby Abreu, David Wright and Josh Hamilton all come with the nagging reminder that in the months afterwards, the power stroke that put them in the Derby seemed to disappear. For Abreu and Wright, it seemed like their Derby efforts marked the moment where they jumped the shark as power threats. 

In the last seven years, five sluggers have won the Derby: Yoenis Cespedes and Prince Fielder, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau and Robinson Cano. Some like Morneau and Cespedes went on a steep decline almost immediately after winning the Derby, Fielder suffered a neck injury sometime after his second victory that would ultimately put him on the shelf for a year and Cano and Ortiz had their power dips delayed (although Ortiz, like Rasputin, never stays down for long). 

Schultz isn't recommending that anyone immediately trade away whoever wins the 2015 HRD this Monday night but, just like video game covers, it's something the superstitious among us should keep in mind.”

Response:  Not sure what to make of the HRD analysis but it is interesting!