Sometimes you get things right.  Sometimes you don’t.  What matters is why.  Here is a look back at what we said last week and the lessons learned from the hits (many) and misses (one) in this Week’s Week That Was

Matt Carpenter:  Last week we wrote: “Matt Carpenter went 2-5 with 2 RBI to stay just red hot.  Many criticized the Cardinals 3B as a guy who needs to get 650 AB to be roto-worthy.  Well in the dumpster fire that is NL 3B, that is certainly not so.  Indeed, in 2015, Carp is proving all his critics wrong.  So far, he is hitting .381 with 9 runs and 9 RBI.  I know he will not hit. 381.  However, with an increasing contact rate and a gaudy line drive rate, there is no reason to doubt Carp will return to the .300 level.  With his counting numbers, that will make him pretty special.  Buy!”  Nailed it!  In the last week Carp hit .400 with a whopping 1.171 OPS, 5 runs, 4 RBI and 2 HR.  Lesson:  a good contact rate while hitting the ball with authority (as demonstrated by a strong line drive rate) is a prescription for success.

 

Zack Cozart:  Last week we wrote: “Zack Cozart continued his torrid start going 3-4 with a dinger on Saturday.  Cozart is now hitting .368 on the year.  Will that continue? No.  Will Cozart stink up the joint like he did in 2014 and hit a hideously ugly .221?  No.  Look for .250 with double digit HR.  If you get that, you will earn profit for sure.  Want more reason for optimism?  His line drive rate is up and he has not hit an infield fly ball all year.  Given that he hit those automatic out popups over 13% of the time in 2014 that is a huge improvement.  There is value to be had here.”  As we used to say on the playground: “nothing by nylon!” In the last week, the Zack attack has launched 3 dingers, knocked in 7 and scored 4 runs.  Lesson:  Look for players who have some track record for success coming off a terrible year.  If you see signs (like a drastic reduction in automatic outs such as infield pops), make the likely profitable investment.

 

Dallas Keuchel:  Last week we wrote: “Dallas Keuchel won on Saturday holding the Angels scoreless over six innings while giving up just two hits and striking out seven.  Loyal readers know I am a Dallas fan – of both the Cowboys and Mr. Keuchel.  Dallas the pitcher has a sweet ERA under 1.00 and a WHIP of exactly 1.00.  If you are going to tell me that he cannot maintain that 75% GB rate, you will probably be right.  However, you should not ignore the fact that in 2014 he lead all starters with a 63 % rate.  Yes, I know he does not throw that hard.  However, he gets a lot of swinging strikes.  Also, when you combine his K rate with his GB rate, you see that the combined rate was over 80% in 2014 and is over 90% in 2015.  If only 10-20 percent of the hitters are hitting flyballs or line drives (and remember many flyballs are cans of corn), you are sure to be successful.  Houston has struck oil with Dallas.”  Report Card:  A+!  All Keuchel did this week was go out and throw 9 shutout innings of 2 hit ball.  Lesson: Yes, one has to be afraid of one year wonders but when the advanced metrics are so strong, there is a good reason for the success and good reason to believe it can repeat.

 

Leonys Martin:  Last week we wrote: “Leonys Martin went 2-4 with a swipe on Saturday.  Thus far in the young season, Martin is hitting a paltry .184 with no HR and two SB.  Do not panic!  At 27 in his 3rd full year in the show, Martin is the classic high floor, high ceiling guy.  At worst, you will get 30+ SB with a solid average.  However, if he does take that proverbial next step (and he has the talent to do so), then you have a major bargain.  As to the slow start, his contact rate has remained steady and clearly that .231 BABIP will rise dramatically (probably by 100 points), so have no fear.  Of course, if there is an impatient owner in your league, you know what to do – fleece the fool!” Survey says: Count it!  Martin made us look good this week by hitting .345, posting an OBP over .400, stealing 3 bags while scoring and knocking in 3.  Lesson:  Players with low floors, high ceilings and advanced metrics that say a rebound from a slow start is coming make prime early season trade targets.

 

Wilmer Flores:  Last week we wrote: “Wilmer Flores went 2-3 with a HR and two RBI Saturday.  As Howard Bender noted right here on the Fantasy Alarm, Flores has hit safely in five of his last six games and homered in two of his last three.  Yes, he is hitting only .222 however his trademark contact rate (88% in 2014) is way below normal and should return.  Moreover, Flores has been unlucky so far with a mere .240 BABIP.  I know Flores is a weak defender and may not be able to hold down SS all year.  However, with Danny Murphy apparently on the blocks and David Wright missing big chunks of time every year, Flores will find his at-bats even if he does not stay at SS.  Buy!”  Verdict: On the money!  All Flores did in the last week was hit .455 with 2 dingers, 5 runs and 5 RBI.  Lesson:  A player who makes the majors at a young age and is clearly not overmatched (as demonstrated by his lofty contact rate) will show his talent and produce in the bigs. 

 

Jean SeguraLast week we wrote: “Jean Segura had a productive Saturday going 2-4 with a run scored and a swipe.  So far in the young season, the Brewers shortstop is hitting .350 with a dinger and two steals.  Of course, he will not hit .350 but he could replicate the .290 of 2013 and could pair that with double digit dingers and 30+ SB.  At just 25 and already in his third full year in the show, Segura is a good bet to post his best season yet.  The contact rate continues to go up, the strikeout rate continues to decline and the line drive percentage continues to climb.  Again, all signs point upward.  Buy!”  Verdict: hung jury. Segura had a decent week hitting .286 with 3 runs, 2 RBI and a swipe.  Not much to be learned here other than a guy with a good track record who plays a scarce position and will give you speed no matter what is a worthy investment.

 

Kyle Lohse Last week we wrote: “Going from signs pointing upward to signs pointing straight down, Kyle Lohse was bad again on Saturday giving up 6 runs and 9 baserunners in 6 innings.  Thus far in 2015, Lohse has an unsightly 10.34 ERA, an ugly 1.72 WHIP and has surrendered a dinger less than every four innings.  The Rules of Engagement encourage investment in pitchers that throw hard.  Why?  First because they are more likely to get whiffs, second because they can get away with not having their best stuff on a given night and third, because guys that need to be precise to be effective tend to fall off the cliff when they lose just a little bit.  I fear the latter is the case for Lohse.  With the velocity continuing to decline, it is hard to see him keeping the ball in the yard in Milwaukee this year.  Sell as soon as he has a good start or two.”  Ok, so far, we got that wrong!  Lohse went out and made us look bad by tossing 7 innings of 3 hit, two run ball while striking out 4.  No lesson here but I am still worried.  Last year, Lohse gave up a dinger once every 9 innings, this year it is once every 4.5 innings.  When you throw under 90, there is just less room for error.  Sell high after this start if you can.

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “One of the biggest stories of the off-season was the overhaul of the San Diego Padres and their trades for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Derek Norris and Wil Myers. From a baseball standpoint, each of the trades made sense for both teams, the Dodgers wanted to shed themselves of the pricey and often-injured Kemp, the Braves were looking to the future, the Royals absolutely exposed Norris as a defensive liability in the AL Wild Card game and the Rays . . . well, what exactly were the Rays thinking? Granted, Myers had a subpar 2014 season due to a broken hand but he was only a year removed from his Rookie of the Year effort and was once one of the most-hyped prospects in baseball.

Steven Souza, whose path to the majors was blocked by the Nationals well-stocked roster, would be the answer to the Rays' inclination to send Myers to the west coast. Not as hyped as Bryce Harper, Mike Trout or even Myers, Souza possesses the combination of power and speed that should make savvy owners salivate. Why does Ian Desmond rate so highly with roto-wonks? It's because he's the only player in baseball to consecutively go 20-20 over the last three years. If you can pair a Jose Abreu or Nelson Cruz with a Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon, you'll have put together 40 HRs and 40+ steals but likely spent a lot of money (or high draft picks) doing so. Under the radar guys like Souza, Brian Dozier, Todd Frazier, Mookie Betts and Joc Pederson (as opposed to highly touted 20-20 talents like Trout and Andrew McCutchen - players that can supplement your more gaudy acquisitions - are the key towards rising to the upper echelon of the hitting half of your league. As a bonus note, if the Nationals can find a way to keep Michael Taylor in their lineup, he too will fill up your stat sheet.

As it's always fun to engage in a little Yankee-baiting, Schultz is curious as to what the Overlord thinks about Alex Rodriguez' surprisingly quick start to 2015. When a 39-year-old who's had surgery to both hips and has missed a full year of seeing major league pitching shows flashes of his old self before the grind of the regular season starts to take its toll, we should all be singing hosannas for the return of A-ROD, right?”

Response:  Well, no way to argue with Schultz’s recommendation to acquire balanced producers who give some power and some speed.  As to ARod, I am not surprised to see him produce as he has a ton of pride, a ton of talent and has something to prove.  DH’ing should keep him fresh but of course, I do not expect the ARod of 2007.  That said, if he continues to display that great batting eye (20% walk rate leading to a .400 OBP) and continue to hit fewer groundballs and more line drives, the success will continue.  I am admittedly a biased Yankees fan but I am buying it.