The Week That Was:  A Critical Look at the 2015 FSTA Expert Draft (Part II)

On January 15, a veritable who’s who of the fantasy baseball world gathered in Las Vegas for the official start of the fantasy baseball season -- the FSTA expert draft.  The Colton and the Wolfman team (Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and me) drew pick 2 for our attempt to defend our FSTA crown.  This is the second in a three part series examining how we did.  The first can be found here:  http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/colton/19835/the-week-that-was-a-critical-look-at-the-2015-fsta-expert-draft-part-i/.

Glen Perkins:  There was a run on closers and we had to get into the act.  The good news is that we figured we would grab out first closer in round 11 and we did.  The better news is that we targeted Perkins and got our man. Yes, he had some minor arm trouble in 2014 but his K rate held strong, his BB rate was down, the fastball average velocity was still at 93.4 and his FIP and BABIP say he was a little unlucky.  If he just replicates last year’s 34 saves and 1.18 WHIP, we will be happy.  The advanced metrics say he should do even better.

Fernando Rodney:  There were already 17 closers off the board and if we passed here, we would have had to wait 23 picks and quite possibly been shut out of anyone with a secure closer job heading into the season.  Frankly, I do not love Rodney but he had 48 saves last year, kept up his velocity up and should, barring injury, keep the role.  Now with our two closers in the clubhouse, we could wait until very late in the draft to prospect on a third one.

Alex Rios: Shortly before our round 13 pick, the Wolfman walked over and said it looked like we were a little light on speed.  After saying “who was that masked man?”, we rostered Rios to help solve that problem. Alex has stolen 82 bases over the last three years and will play for a team known to give the green light.  I am confident in around 25 SB.  The real issue is whether the power will return.  4 HR simply will not cut it.  If Rios is healthy again, he should hit 17-20 dingers.  Even if the power outage continues, this pick was worth it because the batting average has been stable -- .275 or more in four of the last 5 years – and the contact rate supports that average.  Low downside, high upside equals solid mid-round pick.

Chase HeadleyYeah, yeah, I am an unabashed Yankee fan.  Good, we got that out of the way.  Despite my fandom, we think this was a very strong pick.  First, the other experts despite their protestations played scarcity big time in this draft.  They jumped up multiple rounds to grab 3B.  By the time we picked at the end of the 14th round, a dozen 3B were off the board.  Thus, we were the last team to get a 3B and still got a guy who looked very good once he donned the pinstripes in the second half of 2014.  Headley’s overall 2014 numbers will hide his real value as he takes aim at that short porch in RF at Yankee Stadium and plays road games in bandboxes such as Camden, Rogers and Fenway instead of caverns such as ATT and Chavez Ravine.   

Miguel Montero:   Sticking with the scarcity theme, we were pretty surprised at how the catchers were flying off the board fast and furious.  We like our C1 in McCann but feared getting stuck at C2.  Montero is another safe mid-round, low downside, high upside play.  Even with two bad years in a row under his belt, Montero has reached double digit dingers 5 of the last 6 years (and hit 9 in the other) so the downside is pretty low at C2.  The upside could well materialize as the Cubs will be better on offense than the DBacks have been, Ross will catch Lester and thus insure Montero gets enough rest, and the advanced metrics (K rate down, BABIP artificially depressed) say some form of a rebound is in order. 

Kevin Gausman:  Our strategy was to load up on hard throwing starters who have not yet hit their peak.  Stated another way, we wanted to load up on guys with the potential to be the next Garrett Richards.  Gausman is just such a pitcher.  His fastball averages close to 95 MPH, he will no longer be shuttled between the rotation, the pen and AAA and he has four pitches from which to choose.  I am sure we will own Gausman in a bunch of leagues before the season opens on April 5.  [Though the members of my home league – the Mercer Street League – will likely read this column and bid me up on Gausman when we get together for the 28th annual auction]

Alcides Escobar:  In need of some more speed and wanting to fill the MI spot before it was too late, we snagged Escobar who we really liked last year and like as much this year.  Leaving aside 2013, a year in which Escobar was very unlucky with a remarkably low ,266 BABIP for a speedster, Escobar has posted two years of .285+ and 30SB+.  At age 28 with stable BB, K and contact rates, there is no reason to think Escobar will be unlucky again.      

Carl Crawford:   Carl Crawford provides an object lesson for those getting ready for drafts/auctions.  Guys who were superstars and are now just solid tend to be overvalued because so many people overpaid for the former superstar in the past.  Will Crawford return to the guy who hit double digit dingers, .280 or better and stole 45 or more year after year in Tampa?  No.  At 33, is Crawford over the hill?  The answer is also no.  At the end of round 18, we were thrilled to roster a guy who is still just 33, plays on a strong team, has hit .280+ in 6 of the last 7 years, stole 23 bases in what was just a half season last year, and finished the year by hitting .405 over the season’s final 30 days. 

Kendrys Morales:  Throw out last year’s numbers.  Morales did not have spring training.  He did not even have a team until he signed with the offensively challenged Twins during the year.  This year, Morales will play on a better team in KC, will have a full spring, and will play his home games in a better hitters’ park.  The switch hitter has a lifetime .271 average, hit 20+ dingers in three of the last 4 years not counting last year, and has maintained a contact rate of over 80% in each of the last two years.  Morales will make the KC faithful forget Billy Butler very quickly.

Drew Hutchison:  Remember the plan – grab young upwardly mobile hard throwing pitchers.  Enter Drew Hutchison.  While we prefer national league pitchers in mixed leagues, Hutch was too good to pass up.  While his ERA of 4.48 in his first full year in the show left a lot to be desired, he struck out 184 in 184.7 innings, posted a WHIP of 1.26, boasted a fastball with an average velocity of 92+ and a swinging strike rate that only 13 starters in the major leagues could top.  For round 20, that is pretty good production and better upside.   

 Next week, I will take a look at our end game.