The Week That Was:  Right and Wrong from 2014 and Lessons for 2015 (updated)

For my final 2014 Week That Was (Baseball) back in September, I wrote about some of the things team Colton and the Wolfman (Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and I) did right and wrong in 2014 and urged readers to save or print the column as it would be very helpful when 2015 draft prep starts.  Well, draft prep time has arrived.  So rather than force you to dig through the archives, here is that column with some updated information and new tidbits for your reading pleasure.

Alcides Escobar:   In February, we wrote: “Escobar provides us profit potential after a down year.  He will steal at least 20 and likely 30+.  However, the profit lies in the fact that people focus on the .234 average from 2013 but forget he hit .293 in 2012.  When you add in the facts that his BABIP was way below career norms, his line drive percentage stayed strong and his K rate went down, you get a guy who will outperform the “what have you done for me lately” price at which we rostered him.”  What did he do?  Well, he hit.285, delivering the batting average bounce predicted.  Oh, and he has already swiped 31 bases.  Lesson for 2015:  Watch the advanced metrics to see if they explain a drop from previously attained production as a return to that production will provide tidy profits.  

Wei-Yin Chen: In February, we wrote: “He missed almost half the year last year and still managed 100+ K.  Chen is hardly a star but at $5, I am more than happy to roster a guy in his contract year who has a decent (yet unspectacular) history and will be motivated to stay in the rotation to maximize his return.  I see a guy who will likely give us a 100% percent return on our $5 investment.”  Well, as predicted, Chen came through:  16 wins, 136K, and solid 3.54 ERA/1.23 WHIP.  Lesson for 2015: Look for players with minor injuries whose production is artificially depressed and of course, pay special attention to contract year players who missed time with injury but will be motivated to stay on the field.

Justin Upton:  In February, we wrote: “At $24, he is practically risk free. He has averaged 100 runs, 25 HR and 14 SB over the last three years – all before his age 26 season.  Once again, we rostered a player with high upside yet limited risk.”  Upton ended up hitting .270 with 29 HR and 102 RBI with 8 SB as gravy.  Did he have a monster year?  No.  Did he come close to his career averages and return more than we paid?  Yes.  Lesson for 2015:  When you invest in young players with established solid baselines and upside, even if that upside does not materialize, you are fine.  Make these kind of low risk/high reward investments.  [Note – I am not afraid of Upton in Petco.  He hits the ball hard enough and far enough to leave any yard.  Moreover, he is in a contract year that could make him VERY wealthy if he performs. He will]

Adrian GonzalezIn February, we wrote: “Adrian Gonzalez $25. . . .  I think we got a steal on AGonz.  How many players in the big leagues are still in their prime, play on a very good team, have knocked in 99 or more runs 7 years in a row AND hit .290 or more 4 years in a row?  There cannot be many.”  What did AGonz do?  He hit 27 HR with 116 RBI with a lower than expected but still decent .276 average.  Lesson for 2015:  see Upton, Justin above but replace “young players” with “players in their prime”.   [Note a depressed BABIP probably accounted for some of the batting average drop so a return to 280+ with power and counting numbers is very likely to occur.  Invest.]

Victor MartinezIn February, we wrote: “This is a guy who was one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the second half [of 2013], posting a .367 AVG and .937 OPS.  Oh, and if you want to talk consistency - VMart hit over .300 with at least 79 RBI in each of the last four years.  I think those numbers will continue and the HR number creep back over 20.  I am happy shopping at the VMart.”  VMART delivered in spades:  .337 batting average, .411 OBP, 32 HR and 103 RBI.  Lesson for 2015:  When a good player misses a year with injury and then lights it up in the second half the following year, that means it took time to readjust and get completely healthy.  It also means big time bargain potential.

Neil Walker:  In February, we wrote: “In the MI spot, I like to get some production but be careful to do no harm.  Walker, in his age 28 season fits the bill.  Will he ever fully live up to the hype?  Probably not.  However, even including his down 2013, his three year averages are:  66R, 14 HR, 68 RBI and a .268 average.  Solid, unspectacular, but most importantly does no harm.  In the end, this is a case of getting small profit if he stays on the same course but with the possibility of bigger profit.  His BABIP was 57 points below his 2012 number and well below his career numbers.  Thus, his batting average should jump back over .270. Add that to the fact that his bb rate went up and K rate went down and there is some solid upside for 2014.”  In 2014, Walker did not disappoint, exceeding his averages by hitting .271 with 23 HR and approximately 75 runs and RBI.   Lesson for 2015:  the combination of a depressed BABIP, reduced K rate and increased walk rate = maturing hitter who had back luck and thus a potential bargain.  [I see a Walker repeating 2014 with a slight uptick in batting average to account for the BABIP slide that should correct in 2015]

Of course, we got some wrong too.  Here are a couple of good illustrations.

John Axford:    In February, we wrote: “John Axford.  We know the results were awful in Milwaukee last year, however, he maintained a 95mph average FB velo for 4 straight years and his worst K rate was 9 per 9.  I buy into the fact that he was tipping his pitches and the Cardinals fixed that.  I can easily see him notching 80K and 30-35 SV (or at least I hope so).”  His K rate stayed solid at 10.37.  The problem is he lost his closer job and got traded thus killing his fantasy value for us and those who drafted him.  Lesson for 2015:  Yes, a lot of what you hear in the spring is noise.  However, when so many people are saying a closer is on a short leash, make sure you get a different one or at least his backup too.  [Note:  there was no excuse for not getting Cody Allen with Ax in 2014.  The same can be said for example about the Betances/Miller and Romo/Casilla combos in 2015].

Clay Buchholz:  In February, we wrote: “Ordinarily I do not like to draft injury prone players.  However, here at the end of round 17, I broke that rule.  The downside of course is Clay is always hurt and has not pitched 150 innings of good ball since 2010.  However, the upside is quite high.  Last year, he posted sick numbers during his fleeting healthy period: 1.02 WHIP, 1.74 ERA and close to 8K/9.  Even if his ERA rises to his FIP of 2.93, that is still pretty good at round 17.  Frankly, I would not invest a lot in Clay in an AL-only auction but figure this may be worthwhile in an NFBC-style draft if he pitches 100 similar innings in 2014.”  Well, Clay pitched 163 innings but they were not quality as the 5.40 ERA highlights.  Lesson for 2015:  Injury prone players get hurt and either miss time with injury or worse – underperform (a disaster when it comes to pitching).  [Note – the Rules of Engagement do not allow paying any kind of value for injury prone players.  Following them would have avoided this mistake.  The good news is that we only drafted Buchholz in a mock!]

Final Words:  In just 5 days, the fantasy baseball season officially begins with the FSTA expert league draft!  Tune in to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87) from 5-7pm ET on January 15, 2015 as Colton and the Wolfman host the live on location pre-draft show and then stay tuned at 7pm when the draft itself begins and team CTW begins its title defense!