The Week That Was:  Ar-See-Ya!

Oswaldo Arcia on a home run tear highlights this week’s Week That Was.

Oswaldo Arcia:   Oswaldo Arcia is on fire.  The Twins slugger went 3-4 with a home run, two RBI and a run scored Friday.  Bottom line is this kid is as streaky of a hitter as there is. He has gone yard in 3 of his last 4 games and 5 of his last 10.  Will the streak last one more week to help deliver you the ultimate fantasy prize?  Hard to say but why not roll the dice?  On the year, Ar-see-ya has 19 dingers and 54 RBI in just 337 at-bats.  Arcia should be a target at the 2015 draft table but his .237 average could well scare drafters off and make him a bargain.  Why you ask?  Good question! The answer is that Arcia has not hit under .300 in the minors since A ball at age 20.  Moreover, a 2014 major league BABIP well below previous years says the average will rise. If you are in a keeper league and can still make trades, this guy is a high value target.  Buy.

Kennys Vargas:   Kennys Vargas continued his solid maiden voyage in the show going 2-5 and going yard for the 9th time in a Twins’ win Friday.  Thus far, Vargas is hitting .295 with 37 RBI to go with those 9 dingers.  There is no doubt that Vargas could provide a spark to your fantasy baseball hopes in 2014 if he remains on your waiver wire.  However, the 54K against just 4BB and the .370 BABIP say that a sophomore slump is very much in the cards.  Those in keeper leagues should keep their expectations in check. 

Michael Brantley:  Michael Brantley just keeps on keeping on.  Friday, he went 2-5 with a dinger.  On the year, Brantley has been, well great.  He is hitting .322 with 20 HR, 95 RBI, 91 runs and 22 SB.  All of us in the fantasy sports analysis business get some right and some wrong.  But, boy is it sweet when you nail it.  In February, I wrote why I selected Brantley in round 16 of an NFBC style mock draft “Brantley is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy baseball - he just gets no respect. He is only entering his age 27 season and has been productive. For example, last year, he posted 10 HR, 15 SB a solid .284 with 65+ runs and rbi.  This pick is not sabermetric based.  Rather, it is based on eyeball.  Here is a good player who has room to grow and should this year.  However, even if he does not grow at all, he will provide at least the round 16 price I paid.  [Full disclosure – this was not a popular pick among my secret colleagues as many feel Brantley has no upside.  Time will tell]”.  Yeah, that was fun.

Brad PeacockBrad Peacock got smacked around to the tune of seven runs (two earned) on six hits and four walks in just over 3 innings Friday. On the year, Peacock has been, well, bad.  He is now 4-9 with an unsightly 4.82 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through 127.0 innings.  As much fun as it was to be right about Brantley, I have to admit I was dead wrong about Peacock.  To think that I was actually upset that Jason Collette beat the Wolfman and me out of Peacock at the end of the Tout Wars AL auction.  Wow.  [Note:  I tried to find silver lining for Brad but just could not]. 

Mike ZuninoMike Zunino had a good night Friday as the Mariners strive to keep their post season hopes alive.  The Seattle backstop went 2-5 with a home run, three RBI and a run scored.   The good news is that Zunino has hit for power in 2014 as his 21 home runs attest.  However, his .199 batting average is just putrid.  You know what you are getting for the last week and should keep Z active if you need dingers and bench him if you have batting average downside.  The bigger question is what will 2015 bring?  Answer:  the drop in contact percentage, the increase in his K rate and sharp drop in walk rate all say that he has much more growing to do before he is anything other than a batting average nightmare. 

Rafael Ynoa:  Rafael Ynoa had a night he will remember for quite a while last night going 4-5 with two doubles and three RBI Friday.  In limited duty, the Colorado youngster is hitting a cool .417 with five RBI in his first 36 AB. He is in the lineup for the 3rd time in 4 days so perhaps the Rockies will let him play in the last week of the season.  If you see him in the lineup again Sunday and need a jolt for your last week, Ynoa could be your guy.  As to next year, not much in his minor league record says star and he is long in the tooth at 26 for the minors. 

Yovani Gallardo:  Yovani Gallardo was on fire Friday, giving up just five hits while walking one and striking out 11.  Given that he struck out 9 batter in his last 4 starts combined, there is little reason to think he will go out and put up huge K numbers in his final start of the year next week.  When evaluating Gallardo in 2015, take notice of the reduced K’s and better ratios and realize he is now a decent middle of the rotation starter but nothing like the 200K in the bank he once was.

And last and but not least, this from the Baron of the Bottom of the Page.  Schultz says: “With one week to go in the season, there is likely very little that can be done to effectuate any true change in your team's fortune. If you are chasing wins, there may be an average pitcher on the waiver wire starting two games in the final week. However, there is usually a valid reason for him being on the waiver wire and you may be setting the stage for a pair of losses accompanied by a weight on your ERA and WHIP numbers. Plus, rotations are rarely set in stone for the season's final week. Because adages, maxims and axioms are filled with truth, the best advice for the season's final week is to dance with the date that brought you to the ball. If you are contending, no reason to change horses mid-stream (or in this case, in the homestretch).
 
If you are looking to make a couple tweaks, take heed of the teams that are playing meaningful baseball. The Angels have the best record in baseball but they've already clinched home field advantage in the post-season. Same for the Orioles, who barring an utter collapse, have they're playoff position solidly in place. On the other hand, the Royals and Tigers are going to be a dog fight (or more appropriate cat fight) for the AL Central title with Oakland and Seattle in the mix for the wild card game. Although the Indians and Yankees are on the fringe, their playoff hopes may be put to bed by the time this article runs. As a tangent, remember all those Yankees fans mocking Robinson Cano for going to Seattle because they never thought he'd make it back to the post-season. Isn't in fun when blowhards are wrong.
 
In the NL, the Nationals aren't going to idle the motor until they've clinched home field advantage and the Dodgers are only a game behind them. The feistiness of the Pirates and Brewers is going to force the Cardinals to play out the string but other than the Giants, no one else in the senior circuit should be doing much more than playing for pride with an eye towards 2015.
 
For those of you that haven't moved on to fantasy football season because there's still glory to be attained from the baseball season, Schultz salutes you.”
 
ResponseA mixed bag this week from the Carlton the Doorman of fantasy sports.  On the plus side, Schultz is correct when he says that teams playing for keeps are more predictable and more likely to run their regulars out there in the season’s final week.  He is also correct in saluting those still fighting for their own fantasy baseball glory.  However, by taking a cheap shot at Yankee fans by referencing Robinson Cano, Schultz has incurred the wrath of he who Schultz calls his “overlord”.  Yes, as of this writing, the Mariners are 4 games better than the Yankees but both teams are on the outside looking in.  Yes, Robbie has had a good year hitting .321 but the home runs and RBI (14/78) are far below what he has done and would have done in Yankee Stadium (he averaged 289 HR and 106 RBI over the last three years with the Yankees).  Oh, and if the Yankees had Robbie instead of Roberts at 2B, don’t you think they would be more than 4 games better than they are today?  Think about it.