DFS NHL OPTIMAL LINEUPS: OCTOBER 4

NHL DFS is back, baby! And the team here at Fantasy Alarm is back again to help you learn how to play the game and to help you win.

This season I’ll be joined by Jonhenry Holt, Thomas Vecchio and Christopher Morais to provide NHL DFS coverage of all slates with three or more games. As we did last year, we’ll provide Optimal Lineups for all slates of three or more games, and we’ll also provide our award-winning DFS Playbook Pro for all slates of five or more games.

Opening Night provides us with a four-game slate, so I’ll be updating this post early in the afternoon with Optimal Lineups for tonight’s slate.

Before we jump into a breakdown of tonight’s slate, let me start by discussing how I prefer to attack short slates. This was covered in our Intro to NHL DFS, but I generally prefer to play a smaller percentage of my bankroll than I would on larger slates and prefer to lean more on GPP entries.

On a normal large slate, I might risk 8-10 percent of my bankroll with 80-90 percent of my entries in cash games. But on a short slate I lean more toward a 50-50 cash/GPP split while risking only 4-5 percent of my bankroll. Cash games are tough on short slates because there are fewer players for other contest entrants to “miss” on. Everyone’s lineups tend to be homogeneous, which creates a thin margin for cashing. However, that homogeny creates the opportunity to get contrarian and attack tournaments.

Alright, let’s get to tonight’s games. One caveat, today’s writeup accompanying the Optimal Lineups will be longer than normal, but it’s Opening Night and we’re excited!

Toronto @ Winnipeg

Three of tonight’s four games have a clear favorite, but this game looks pretty even as Winnipeg is a slight favorite at -115, while you’d also have to bet $105 to win $100 on Toronto.

As far as matchups go, Winnipeg’s top line centered by Mark Scheifele presents the toughest matchup for the Leafs skaters. Late in the season last year, Scheifele’s line was drawing opposing top lines in home games, so it’s Auston Matthews’ line that will draw the toughest matchup for the Leafs. The Leafs have forward depth, so their second and third lines centered by Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri are options.

Because the Leafs aren’t one of the three heavy Vegas favorites and thus not one of the three teams with a high implied goal total tonight, and because the Matthews line is the most popular fantasy play from the Leafs, the Bozak and Kadri lines have some GPP appeal.

As for the matchups for the Jets, the Kadri line of Toronto provides the toughest matchup for opposing skaters. It’s hard to know if Winnipeg will match its second or third line up against Kadri’s line, but it’s safe to assume that Scheifele and the top line won’t see a ton of Kadri.

Goaltender Steve Mason has some upside and thus GPP appeal against a Toronto team that ranked fourth in shots on goal last season, particularly on FanDuel where he’ll likely be the lowest priced goalie to start tonight.

These two teams ranked fifth and seventh in goals scored last season, and their rosters are largely the same this season. There’s shootout potential here, and the lack of a clear Vegas favorite means the players in this one might not see super high ownership percentages.

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

As you might expect, the defending champs are a healthy favorite as they open the season at home. They’re a -185 favorite and thus have the highest implied total of the slate.

St. Louis’ top six isn’t the greatest matchup for opposing skaters, and Sidney Crosby’s line will almost assuredly see most of its minutes against the top six. But Evgeni Malkin’s line has a chance to see some of St. Louis’ depth lines, so that’s the Pittsburgh line to lean on tonight. Malkin’s line tended to get the better matchups at home last season, and Malkin recorded 20 more points at home than he did on the road.

Both Malkin and his linemate Phil Kessel play on the top power play unit with Crosby, so rostering them would give you some exposure to Sid the Kid. The Pens lack GPP appeal given their status as the biggest favorite of the night, but you’ll want some exposure to them in cash games. Cheaper cash options are Conor Sheary on FanDuel, who plays on Crosby’s line, and Bryan Rust on both DraftKings and FanDuel, who plays on Malkin’s line. Both Sheary and Rust should see work on the second power play unit.

Goaltender Matt Murray is the cheapest goalie on DraftKings from the teams that are clear favorites tonight, so he makes plenty of sense there in cash games.

As for the Blues, there’s some GPP appeal here with them being a heavy road underdog. Vladimir Tarasenko is talented enough to score multiple goals in any matchup, even a tough one like the Pens. He’s pricey, but his cost could be mitigated by pairing him with the inexpensive Vladimir Sobotka, who will join Senko on the top line.

St. Louis goaltender Jake Allen would also be a highly contrarian play given St. Louis being such a heavy road dog. But Pittsburgh led the league in shot attempts last season, so Allen has massive upside if he’s on his game tonight. Allen is probably too pricey on FD, but he’s super cheap on DK.

Calgary @ Edmonton

Edmonton is the second biggest favorite of the night, and Connor McDavid is just about the most popular player in the league right now, so expect to see heavy ownership on McJesus, especially in cash games. McDavid’s line was getting opposing top lines in home games late last season, and if that holds tonight it should lead to McDavid’s line avoiding a tough matchup. Calgary’s second line is a stout defensive line that usually plays with Calgary’s top defensive pair, so there’s a good chance McDavid avoids that matchup at home.

Given that we were talking about rostering Malkin’s line above, it should be noted that rostering both Malkin and McJesus in cash would be difficult, if not prohibitive. But you can pivot off one of them to a cheaper linemate that also joins them on the power play with Phil Kessel or Leon Draisaitl.

Like St. Louis, Calgary has some GPP appeal given their status as road dogs, but Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau don’t have the quite the chance of hitting their high upside in a tough matchup like Tarasenko does. That’s not to say they’re not an option in a GPP, they’re just not my preference.

As for goalies in this one, Cam Talbot is the cheapest of the goalies from the three heavy home favorites on FanDuel, so he makes plenty of sense in cash games there.

Philadelphia @ San Jose

Let’s start by just saying hard pass on the Flyers on the road against the Sharks who had the fifth fewest goals against last season. The Flyers certainly don’t have much cash appeal as a road dog, and they lack GPP appeal without a Tarasenko-type player who has significant upside no matter the matchup. Even goaltender Brian Elliott lacks GPP appeal as a road dog given that San Jose ranked 19^th in shots on goal last season.

The Sharks, however, do have cash appeal as one of three clear home favorites. Given that you’ll want some cash exposure to all three home favorites if you can, it might be a good idea to eschew expensive options like Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns and instead go with second line center Logan Couture. You’ll still get exposure to Pavelski/Burns with Couture as he joins those guys on the top power play unit. Mikkel Boedker is an option for a mini-stack with Couture as he joins him at even strength and on the top power play unit.

With either Murray or Talbot being cheaper than goaltender Martin Jones on either site, you may not roster Jones in cash. However, Philly was a good matchup for goaltenders last year as they ranked fifth in shots on goal but only 20^th in goals scored.