We’ve got a typical full, 15-game Friday slate on tap tonight, though it’s not a perfectly clean slate. For one, a forecast for rain in Washington makes it seem likely as of this AM writing that Phils-Nats will be washed out tonight. If that game does end up playing, the Nats would be a stacking option against Nick Pivetta, but I digress.
Colorado Rockies
Normally we wouldn’t bother delving into a Coors game here since you’re well aware that teams playing in Coors are usually stack options. But with Clayton Kershaw starting for the visiting Dodgers tonight, it’s worth discussing whether the Rockies are a stack option tonight.
Despite being the unquestioned best active pitcher right now, even Kershaw has not been superhuman enough to overcome Coors Field. In 109 career innings there Kershaw has a 4.71 ERA, and hitters have a .736 OPS against him, which is somewhere in the neighborhood of average against a guy who isn’t remotely close to average.
Two Rockies have had noticeable success in their careers against Kershaw. Nolan Arenado is 13-for-39 in his career against Kershaw with two home runs and a .399 wOBA overall. You might have guessed Arenado’s name if you were told two Rox has good career numbers against Kershaw, but you likely would not have guessed the other, Gerardo Parra. Parra is 12-for-36 against Kershaw with five extra-base hits and a .404 wOBA.
Ian Desmond and Mark Reynolds are other Colorado right-handers with good career numbers against lefties, and they tend to follow Arenado closely in the order. Parra will hit toward the bottom of the order, but Desmond and Reynolds should provide a nice bridge between Arenado and Parra if you want to go with a full-on Rox stack.
The main appeal of a Rockies stack tonight is simply being contrarian. Presumably others will see that Kershaw has struggled at Coors, but the assumption is that he’s still going to keep Rockie ownership well below its normal levels. The Rox aren’t the cash game option they usually are, but they do have more GPP appeal tonight than they typically do.
New York Mets
The Mets are in Milwaukee this weekend and will be getting a nice positive park shift as a result, especially left-handed hitters. Miller Park for lefties had the third highest HR Park Factor last season (according to Baseball Prospectus) while Citi Field for lefties ranked 32nd in HR Park Factor.
Met lefties will have the platoon advantage against Milwaukee’s starting pitcher tonight, Matt Garza. Garza has a solid 2.55 ERA in three starts this season backed by a 3.43 xFIP, but he has not been able to generate much soft contact. Among today’s starters, only Pivetta and Josh Tomlin have generated soft contact at a lower rate than Garza, and Garza has the third highest rate of hard contact allowed.
The Mets have collectively fared well against Garza in the past as active Mets have a combined .391 wOBA in 125 PA against him. Jay Bruce has done the most damage against Garza. He’s 12-for-33 lifetime against Garza with three home runs, four doubles and a .500 wOBA. Other lefties Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker have career wOBAs of .369, .366 and .34 against right-handed pitching, respectively. And it’s a small 134 PA sample size, but right-handed T.J. Rivera has hit same-handed pitching well in his young career with a .411 wOBA vs. RHP.
Assuming Conforto is back in the lineup after sitting Wednesday with hamstring tightness, the Mets tend to go Conforto-Rivera-Bruce-Walker-Granderson at the top of the order. Jose Reyes would likely lead off if Conforto can’t go, but that would still give you 2-5 in the order to choose from for stacking.
Houston Astros
The Astros are in New York this weekend, and Yankee Stadium is an extremely homer-friendly park. Yankee Stadium for righties had the second highest HR Park Factor last season, and Yankee for lefties ranked 13th (of 60). By comparison, Minute Maid in Houston ranked 42nd for righties and 52nd for lefties, so the Astros are getting a positive park shift.
The Astros will face the left-handed Jordan Montgomery who will be making his sixth career start tonight. Montgomery has a respectable 3.81 ERA through five starts, but his xFIP is a more troublesome 4.71, thanks in large part to a high walk rate of 11.7 percent. His biggest problem tonight may be his fly ball tendencies against right-handed pitching. His 44.4 percent fly ball rate against righties is the highest of any pitcher in action tonight, and he’s going to face a ton of Houston righties.
The Astros faced a left-hander on Wednesday and had nine right-handed hitters in the lineup thanks to two switch-hitters being in the lineup. Just so we’re clear, that means an entire lineup, or near entire lineup, of right-handed hitters is going to face the most fly ball-prone pitcher going tonight in the ball park that, for righties, had the second highest HR Park Factor last season. *Thumbs up emjoi*
The Astros started their lineup on Wednesday against a lefty as follows: George Springer-Carlos Beltran-Jose Altuve-Carlos Correa-Evan Gattis. Those five guys happen to have the five highest career wOBAs vs. LHP among Astros, so the top of the order is where you’ll find your Houston stack tonight.