As we head into Week 6 of the fantasy baseball season, the obvious topics to discuss in the Managerial Tendencies series have been exhausted. We started by looking at the new managers this season, and since then we’ve looked at the stats you can use to analyze a manager’s impact, how quick some managers are with the hook, and how a front office can have an impact on managerial decisions. But we’re out of obvious topics until a manager gets fired and it’s time to analyze the replacement.
Until that time, we’ll take an in depth look at a different manager each week. I put out a request on Twitter for followers to suggest frustrating managers worth examining, and Mike Matheny was the first name that came up. If you’d like a specific manager to be given the treatment, you can suggest them to me on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
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Matheny has been in St. Louis for five full seasons and is currently in his sixth as the Cards’ manager. For context, Matheny came to town right when Albert Pujols left it. Matheny guided the Cards to the NL Pennant in 2013, and they have had a winning season each year under him with a total win percentage of .567. St. Louis’ 476 wins from 2012 to present rank second in the league in that timeframe.
But before you go and give Matheny all the credit, the Cards have had a ton of talent during his tenure. From 2012-2016 the Cards ranked fifth in team WAR both in hitting and pitching. The only other team that ranks top five in that span on the mound and in the box is the Dodgers.
One thing Matheny has lacked on the roster however has been speed. In his five full seasons, the Cards have never ranked higher than 22nd in any one season in stolen base success rate. He is apparently aware of the problem as the Cards have also never ranked higher than 22nd in stolen bases attempted during his tenure. These numbers say much more about the makeup of St. Louis’ roster than they do about Matheny, but it’s a good sign that Matheny is working with what he has been given.
As mentioned in a previous article, small ball isn’t what we’re looking for as fantasy players. We’d much rather managers play for the big inning rather than trading outs in the interest of bringing in just a run or two. In this regard, Matheny is fantasy friendly. The Cards have never ranked in the top five in the NL in sacrifice attempts in a season (the 15 NL teams always lead the league in sac attempts), and they’ve finished 14th and 9th in the NL in that stat the last two seasons. When you remove the NL pitcher component from the equation and only look at successful sacrifices by position players, the Cards have an average rank of 21st over the last five years.
Moving to the mound, you could call Matheny’s management of his starting rotation a bit odd. The Cards have had at least above average starting pitching in each of Matheny’s seasons, and, except for last season, their staff has ranked sixth or better in ERA each year. What’s curious is that St. Louis’ rank in average pitches thrown per start has been lower than their rank in ERA every season. As an example, the staff ranked sixth in ERA in 2014 but only 21st in average pitches thrown per start.
The fact that St. Louis tends to rank lower in averages pitches thrown per start could be part of the cause of St. Louis’ ERA being low each season. We know that pitchers fare worse each time through the lineup, so a quicker hook is going to contribute to a lower team ERA. Talent is driving their lower ERAs, but shorter outings aren’t hurting.
Again, as discussed in this space before, a quick hook can be a good or a bad thing depending on what you’re looking for. If you’re looking for ratio help, shorter starts are going to put your ratio categories in less peril. But if you’re looking for counting numbers, you need to take on the risk of a starter facing the full order for a third (or even fourth) time to rack up more strikeouts or have a better chance of factoring into the decision.
Knowing Matheny rolls a bit more conservative with his starting staff is useful if you know what you’re after. If you’re thinking of spot starting a Cardinal starter and worried about ratios, you can feel semi-safe that Matheny won’t hang your guy out to dry. But if you’re trying to pick up a win or some strikeouts, you’re less likely to get what you’re after. The same goes if you’ve identified a categorical need and are looking to address it via trade. You’ll be more likely to address the issue by trading for a Cardinal starter if you’re looking for ratio help rather than counting numbers.
As far as how Matheny handles saves, he tends to stick with his guy absent that guy pitching overtly poorly. As an example, Trevor Rosenthal was the team’s best reliever in 2013 with a 2.63 ERA (2.34 xFIP) and a K/9 that was literally double the K/9 of closer Edward Mujica. But Mujica got 37 saves compared to three for Rosenthal because Mujica started with the job and never pitched poorly enough to lose it, even if Rosenthal pitched well enough to take it. Mujica had a 2.78 ERA for the season and only blew four saves.
Rosenthal locked down the closer’s role for the next two seasons, but, as you likely know, he struggled mightily last year with a 4.46 ERA and 6.47 BB/9. Seung Hwan Oh took over the job and finished the year with 19 saves compared to 14 for Rosenthal.
This year the tables have turned as Oh started the season with the job but has struggled and ceded a few saves to Rosenthal already. Oh hasn’t completely lost the job yet with a 3.68 ERA and only one blown save (some of his struggles have been in non-save situations), but his 5.13 xFIP suggests more trouble may be on the way. Oh’s strikeout rate is down from 32.9 percent last year to 18.2 percent in the early going, and he’s lost half a tick off his velocity with the gap between fastball and change narrowing quite a bit since last season.
Rosenthal has been dominant in the early going and is unquestionably pitching better than Oh right now. Rosenthal is only owned in 17.5 percent of ESPN leagues and is poised to take back the closing role if Oh continues to struggle and Matheny acts as he has in the past. If you’re speculating for saves, now is the time to add Rosenthal.