Below are breakdowns of each of Wednesday's four Stanley Cup Playoff games along with example lineups.
WAS @ TOR
In their first home playoff game on Monday, the Leafs played matchups just like they did almost the entire regular season at home. Nazem Kadri’s line took the opposing top line (Backstrom), Auston Matthews’ line took the other top six line (Kuznetsov), and Tyler Bozak’s line got bottom six (Eller). Matching up like that often benefitted the Bozak line in the regular season, but in this series they’re getting a tough draw as Eller’s line is arguably Washington’s best possession line.
In Game 3, it was the Matthews line that dominated. Kadri/Ovechkin and Bozak/Eller were largely draws possession-wise, but the Matthews line dominated the puck against Kuznetsov’s line. Absent some news that the teams are mixing up lines, which seems unlikely given that these teams did little line mixing throughout the year, the Matthews line is the one you want from Toronto.
William Nylander plays with Matthews at even and on the power play. Jake Gardiner is the D-man on the Matthews PP unit. Matthews is much more affordable on FD, as he has been all year, and Nylander is also priced a bit better there. Zach Hyman makes for decent salary relief on either site.
On the flip side, it seems obvious you don’t want to mess with the Matthews line, so Kuznetsov’s line is not much of an option. The Backstrom line was unsurprisingly Washington’s best in Game 3. Any of those forwards are in play, it’s simply a matter of what you can afford. From the third line, Andre Burakovsky is the only one who sees power play work. That third line matchup with Bozak’s line is a good one, so Burakovsky is a salary relief option.
On the blue line, Matt Niskanen skates quite a bit with the Backstrom line at even strength, and he works on the second PP unit.
In net, you must consider Braden Holtby, especially in cash games, since the Caps are a -145 favorite. Holtby is seeing an average of almost 32 shots against per 60 minutes in this series, so there’s enough volume there.
OTT @ BOS
Boston finished second in even-strength (adjusted) CF% this season, but Ottawa won the possession battle in Boston in Game 3. Ottawa finished 24th in CF% this season, so you might be wise to largely ignore Game 3 given that it deviated so significantly from what these teams have done in the possession phase of the game all season.
Boston’s top line, centered by Patrice Bergeron, was arguably the best possession line in hockey this season, so they’re the most likely to take advantage of Ottawa. David Pastrnak started Game 3 with Bergeron’s line, but they finished the game with David Backes on that line, which is the configuration they used most in the second half of the season. Try to pay up for Bergeron or Brad Marchand, but Backes is cheaper option.
On defense, rookie Charlie McAvoy continues to work on the top power play unit. His price tags have crept up, but he’s still very much a value option.
For the Sens, it was Kyle Turris’ line that saw almost none of the Bergeron line in Game 3. That line only got one point combined on the scoresheet, but they dominated the possession game. Turris and Alexandre Burrows play together on the second power play unit, where D-man Dion Phaneuf joins them. All those Sens are priced better on FD than DK.
In net, Craig Anderson makes for an interesting GPP play given the possession mismatch. SHOTS = SAVES = POINTS, and Anderson should see plenty of shots despite Boston only managing 20 SOG in Game 3. Boston finished the regular season ranked second with 32.9 SOG per 60 at home. Tuukka Rask is also a cash game option with Boston being a -165 favorite. Rask is preferable on FD where he’s priced noticeably lower than Holtby.
MIN @ STL
Alexander Steen’s line got absolutely rolled in the possession game in Game 3, seeing ice against both the Mikko Koivu and Martin Hanzal lines for the Wild. Koivu’s line saw less of St. Louis’ top line than Hanzal’s did, so that’s the line to look to if you want Wild exposure. Koivu and Mikael Granlund play together on the top PP unit, while line mate Jason Zucker sees little PP time. Mathew Dumba and Ryan Suter play the point on the PP unit.
*Minnesota used some different lines in practice on Tuesday, but Bruce Boudreau was quoted as saying they might not necessarily use the practice lines.
For the Blues, you obviously want to avoid the Steen line even though Steen potted a goal in Game 3. But the first and third lines for the Blues are options. Vladimir Tarasenko may a bit too expensive, but line mate Jaden Schwartz is a cheaper way to get top line exposure. Schwartz led the Blues with six SOG in Game 3. Third liners David Perron and Patrik Berglund also stay together on the second PP unit. They can provide salary relief at either forward position if you need it. Colton Parayko joins those third liners on the second PP unit and is also a salary relief option on FD.
In net, Jake Allen is worth considering given his .974 save percentage in the first four games of the series. He has faced 117 shots in about 10 periods worth of play in those games, which works out to a pace of roughly 35 shots in a regulation game. The volume is there and his game is there, so he must be considered. Holtby is probably a better option at the same price on FD, but Allen is $300 cheaper on DK.
ANA @ CGY
If there’s a line that comes close to Bergeron’s line in the possession game, it’s Mikael Backlund’s line. Backlund’s line saw the Ryan Getzlaf line in Game 3, which fits with their well-established history of matching up with opposing top lines in home games. Ryan Kesler’s line saw almost none of the Backlund line in Game 3, so that’s probably where you should lean with Ducks.
Kesler and RW Jakob Silfverberg play on the top PP unit along with young D-man Shea Theodore. And as loathe as I am to ever recommend this guy, Corey Perry should avoid Backlund for the most part playing on Anaheim’s third line, and he is priced well on DK.
The Kesler matchup is the one you’d prefer to avoid when picking Flames, but it’s hard to rule out Calgary’s top line, which is who matched up with Kesler in Game 3. The Flames have often let the Sean Monahan line play against the bottom six in home games this season. It would be no surprise at all to see Calgary get them away from the Kesler matchup and against depth lines if Calgary ends up playing from behind.
Monahan and Gaudreau are much more reasonably priced on DK, so you might look to the Backlund line on FD. They don’t stand any chance of getting matchups with depth lines, but they should avoid the Kesler matchup as they stick to shutting down the Getzlaf line, which isn’t as tough of a possession matchup. Michal Frolik and Matthew Tkachuk join Backlund at even strength, and Tkachuk and Backlund play together on the second PP unit. Mark Giordano also plays with the Backlund line at even and on the PP, so he’s a nice stack option, though he’s priced much better on DK than FD.