The key with defenses is finding defenses that will face a lot of passing plays. Fantasy point-scoring events like interceptions and sacks occur exclusively on passing plays, and fumbles actually occur more on passing plays than running plays. Defensive touchdowns are difficult to predict, but they're also more likely to occur on passing plays with 53 pick sixes last year compared to only 33 scoop 'n scores.
One of the best ways to identify defenses that will face a lot of passing plays is identifying Vegas favorites, preferably home favorites. And obviously the lower the opponent's implied point total, the better the matchup for the defense.
Below are the best D/ST options for Saturday’s slate of contests.
Premium Options
The chalk this week is going to be in the NFC West with Seattle and Arizona. Seattle will be in San Francisco and Arizona will be in LA, and the Niners and Rams have the two lowest implied totals of the weekend.
Both defenses rank top 10 in Football Outsiders’ Defense Efficiency Ratings (DVOA), but they don’t rank as highly in the weighted DVOA rankings likely due to injuries each unit has sustained. Seattle’s D ranks fourth on the season but eighth in weighted, and Arizona ranks sixth on the season but 10th in weighted.
The Cards have the better matchup as the Rams allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses while the Niners allow the seventh most. And given that the Cards are significantly cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel and might even be lower owned than the Hawks on both sites, they’re probably the better play.
Sneaky Options
This category is reserved for good defenses that may be overlooked in a given week for whatever reason, providing you with the opportunity to roster a really good unit with a lower ownership rate. With Week 17 being as weird as it is, there are quite a few options in this category this week.
One option is Pittsburgh who ranks ninth in DVOA and an even better fifth in weighted. They have an obviously great matchup against Cleveland who has the seventh lowest implied total this weekend and who allows the third most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The concern is that Pittsburgh will sit some guys in a meaningless regular season finale, though with only 46 players able to dress for a game, it would be almost impossible for Pittsburgh to sit everyone. DE Stephon Tuitt will be out due to an injury sustained in Week 15, and S Robert Golden will sit again this week. But no key defensive players were named when Pittsburgh announced which starters would sit this week.
Philadelphia and Denver are also options, and they’re similar in that their matchups wouldn’t be good in a normal week. But Philly will face Dallas who will be resting their stars to one degree or another, and Denver will face a Derek Carr-less Oakland team. The Raiders still have something to play for this week, but the drop off to Matt McGloin is obviously significant. Dallas and Oakland are tied for the 10th lowest implied total this weekend. As for the defenses themselves, Denver ranks first in DVOA and second in weighted, while Philly ranks fifth in DVOA and 13th in weighted.
Philly and Denver are both priced more attractively on FD, and the Steelers are priced more attractively priced on DK. They should all be low-owned on those sites, so give them a look when building GPP lineups.
Bargain Options
If you’re looking for the cheapest possible option, Chicago is a unit you should consider. They’re not a great defense or anything, but they’re not horrifically bad either as they rank 21st in DVOA and 20th in weighted. The Bears are one of two teams priced at $2,600 or lower on DK that is facing a team with an implied total under 24, and the other team is the Jets who do have a horrifically bad defense. If you can’t stomach the Bears D, just pay up a bit more for Philly or Arizona on DK. And over on FD Philly is just as cheap as the Bears are, so that’s your cheapest possible option on that site.