The key with defenses is finding defenses that will face a lot of passing plays. Fantasy point-scoring events like interceptions and sacks occur exclusively on passing plays, and fumbles actually occur more on passing plays than running plays. Defensive touchdowns are difficult to predict, but they're also more likely to occur on passing plays with 53 pick sixes last year compared to only 33 scoop 'n scores.
One of the best ways to identify defenses that will face a lot of passing plays is identifying Vegas favorites, preferably home favorites. And obviously the lower the opponent's implied point total, the better the matchup for the defense.
Below are the best D/ST options for Saturday’s slate of contests.
Premium Options
The chalk this week is unquestionably going to be New England. The Pats are a massive 16.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, who have a minuscule implied total of 13.5. The Pats defense has been playing much better of late. As evidence of that, they rank 13th in Football Outsiders’ weighted Defense Efficiency Ratings (DVOA) compared to 19th for the season as a whole. And of course, the matchup with the Jets is a great one as the Jets have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season. If you don’t have any interest in getting cute in cash games, just plug the Pats in your D/ST spot. But in GPPs, look elsewhere for a more contrarian option.
If you don’t want to go along with the chalk in cash games but still want a relatively safe option, San Diego is a good option for you. San Diego ranks seventh in DVOA and fifth in the weighted version. They also have an excellent matchup in Cleveland against a Browns team that has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. The Chargers are a six-point favorite in that game, and the Browns have the fifth lowest implied total on Saturday.
Sneaky Option
This category is reserved for good defenses that may be overlooked in a given week for whatever reason, providing you with the opportunity to roster a really good unit with a lower ownership rate.
The top three defenses in weighted DVOA have either already played or don’t play on Saturday, which means Seattle at sixth in weighted DVOA is one of the two highest rated defenses playing on Saturday (second only to San Diego). The Hawks are an 8.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals who have the second lowest implied total on Saturday, so Seattle’s D/ST meets the Vegas criteria. Arizona has been a nice matchup for defenses this season as they are tied for fifth most fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Seattle shouldn’t be too highly owned given how popular New England is likely to be. And Seattle’s salaries (highest on DK, tied with NE for highest on FD) is also going to drive ownership away from them. If you’re looking for a good defense with upside and low ownership, Seattle is the play.
Bargain Options
If you’re looking for a cheap option at D/ST, it’s going to be a bit of a challenging week.
On DK the only sub-$3,000 D/ST facing a team with an implied total lower than 24 is San Francisco. The Niners will be in LA as a 3.5-point underdog against the Rams. The Niners defense is plainly bad (30th in DVOA, 31st weighted), but the matchup is spectacular as the Rams have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing defenses than any other team. Don’t read too much into it, but this is the same Rams team that the Niners blanked in Week 1.
Over on FD forget the super-cheap options, but Houston at $4,500 and Green Bay at $4,600 are options if you if you need to save $300-400 going down from the teams discussed above. Houston is a two-point home favorite against the Bengals. Cincy is a below average matchup for defenses, but they have the seventh lowest implied total on Saturday and Houston ranks slightly above average in DVOA (though below average in weighted). The Pack 6.5-point home favorite against the Vikes who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. The problem with the Pack D/ST is Minny’s fairly high implied total of 24.75, which is likely as high as it is due to Green Bay ranking 19th in weighted DVOA.
Of these three bargain options, Green Bay should be the most highly owned, likely with an ownership rate in the range of San Diego’s in the tier below New England. But Houston and San Francisco should be near un-owned if you’re looking for contrarian options.