Focusing on tonight’s main slate, we have a large 13 games taking place, and many of them taking place in favorable hitting conditions tonight. While there are plenty of games to choose from, I feel that if playing gpp’s and stacking, going the “chalk” route will pay off more than going with a risky style stack. If unsure about what chalk is, simply put, it’s going with the popular plays that the industry believes everyone will be on. In larger slates like tonight’s those type of plays won’t receive the high ownership levels that they would for instance on a six game slate.
The fade approach today still works, but through taking a payer from the top teams. An example of this is Cozart over Russell, or Votto over Rizzo.
As always, things can change based on lineups and weather, so do stay up to date using the Playbook Pro tools. Below are my favorite stack options for the day.
Good luck!
Stacks for Tuesday, May 16
Reds @ Cubs
Not only do we have the wind blowing at with gusts reaching up to 30 mph tonight at Wrigley, we also have an 80 plus degree game time temperature. This adds up to an 11.5 projected run total for this game.
Bronson Arroyo somehow shut down the Cubs back in April when they were projected to destroy him, and should get their revenge tonight. He’s gone over a month without a loss, but heart of the order opponents have a miss rate of just 9.8% against him this season (Rank: 164th of 165 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22.9%). Arroyo isn’t going to blow it by you either, having an average fastball velocity of just 84.1 MPH this season (Rank: 182nd of 185 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 92.0).
John Lackey takes the mound for the Cubs, and is coming off a 10K game @ Coors. He struck out seven in the matchup vs the Reds in April, but has allowed at least two homers in two starts already this year. The challenge for the Reds is that Lackey has been more of a groundball pitcher. The same could be said for Arroyo as well.
Any fly ball hit tonight will have the chance to leave the yard, and if looking to stack a full game, this would be the one. Your best approach for this game would be to try to mix and match a few combinations from this game if playing multiple lineups. If playing only one, try to focus more on the Cubs side.
Top Stack Suggestions:
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras or Miguel Montero, Kris Bryant (If back in lineup).
Reds: Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Zack Cozart, Jose Peraza
*Alternative to this Stack: Reverse positions plays: i.e. Votto over Rizzo, Schwarber over Duvall, Mesoraco at catcher, ect
Arizona
Feel free to use Arizona paired with the Cubs tonight, or use them with a slightly less popular team like the Rangers or Astros.
Arizona will be a popular team to target outside of Wrigley tonight, as they check in with the second highest projected run total of the slate at 5.13 runs. The Mets starting pitcher, Tommy Milone, has not pitched past the fifth inning this year, and has allowed at least one long ball in five straight appearances.
Arizona continues to lead the league at home this season in avg (.302), slugging (.519), and OPS (.884). With Pollock heading to the DL, at least one OF spot for the D-Backs should come at a very cheap price, and on DK, there is multiple players that can be used as OF. As we saw recently, even a player like Ahmed has the double dong potential at home with the way Arizona has been hitting.
Top Stack Suggestions:
Arizona: Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, Brandon Drury
Secondary: Nick Ahmed, Yasmany Tomas, cheap OF spot.
*Alternative to this stack: Anaheim paired with Colorado
Yankees @ Royals
The wind is also blowing out, as well as temps in the 80’s at Kansas City tonight for a matchup between Sabathia and Hammel. It’s been more than a month since C.C.’s last win, and the 1-4 Hammell allowed 13 hits to the Rays in his last start. These two pitchers have a combined 11.74 era for the season with each at over 5.75.
The Yankees just need to stay patient against Hammell, as he sits with a 1.93 era in the first two innings while starting, but an 8.71 era in the other innings. Yankees hitters have an OBP of .353 this season (Rank: 2nd of 30 in MLB), and once they got on base, they’ve homered every 15.3 at bats this season with RISP (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB).
The Royals players projected to play today have 80 career ab’s vs Sabathia, and have yet to homered off him. That should change tonight, as I expect a few fly balls to leave the park just based on the conditions tonight. Sabathia has allowed 22 earned runs with five long balls over his past 20 ? innings pitched. A user commented on a previous stack the deck article of mine about never using the Royals again as a stack because they are terrible. Well, a few weeks later, the Royals have won four in a row, and scored at least six runs in four of their past six games.
Top Stack Suggestions:
Yankees: Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday
Royals: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez/ David Butera, Jorge Soler
Alternative to this stack: Mix and match between Yankees, Cubs, D-Backs, and Reds.