It is down to two weeks until the NBA season begins and if you haven’t played NBA DFS before, you are in for a real treat. Written below are concepts that are helpful to understand when starting to play NBA. Before you start, it is best to know the scoring system and rules for the site in which you decide to play. Each one is different and it is best to find one with which you feel most comfortable. If this is not your first daily NBA season, this can be used as refresher, but please feel free to add to the conversation through the FA Nation forums.
Why is the NBA in a class of its own?
In the NBA, points can be scored by any players who are on the court, with each team having, on average, 98 possessions a game. In NFL, that number is much less with an average of 64 so far and with about half of those being designed run calls. Your average MLB game provides your players, roughly, five chances each to produce. Due to this, receiving a zero score in a roster spot in MLB and NFL does not hurt as much as a zero in NBA.
Minutes Equal Points
One of the first things you will learn with the NBA is that players who are on the court the most have the best chances to score the most points. There is no way to predict which players will be in a triple-overtime game or collect quick fouls, but after a week or two, you will have an idea as to which players start the game, as well as who is on the floor to close the game out. Once you have an idea of the team’s rotation and minutes-played, the next step would be to look at a player’s usage rate.
Usage Rate
It is all about how much a certain player is involved in his team’s offense. Simply put, the higher the number, the more times that player will have the ball in his hands. Please keep in mind that this refers to his FGA’s, FT’s, AST’s, and TO’s which are offensive stats only. Players can stuff the stat sheets with rebounds, blocks, and steals which are not included in a player’s usage rate. Finding those players who can contribute even with an off-shooting night is key to constructing a winning lineup.
What team stats should you focus on?
Two of the top team stats to focus on the most are Pace of Play and Defense vs Position. As mentioned above, the amount of team possessions in an NBA game is much higher than that of NFL games, but just like in the NFL, there are teams that like to play fast while others try to slow it down. In 2014-15, the Warriors were the only team to average more than 100 possessions per 48 minutes. Last season, there were seven teams that averaged over 100 possessions per game. Choosing players from teams that are playing in a faster-paced game equals more possible opportunities for your players to obtain stats.
Once you establish which teams are going to be playing in the higher-paced games, you should look at team’s defense against each position. This provides you with how well a team defends a certain position on the court compared to the rest of the league. Using this information, both for early roster construction as well as finding value when late scratches occur, helps you find which players might have higher producing games than they typically would perform.
Vegas Lines
They are your best bet on how to best predict how a game will be played out. On a given night, there could be a 30-point difference between the highest total game and the lowest. High total games with close point spreads are the ones you should look to target. A double-digit spread game doesn’t always mean the starters will be out of the game for the fourth quarter. I’m not a fan of trying to predict blowouts, but rather finding the players who are in the best situation to produce.
Your lineup is not safe until tipoff!
This is one of the hardest areas to deal with in NBA DFS. If you want to be successful, and provide yourself with the greatest opportunity to compete, you have to be available to make changes to your lineups up until that contest locks. The NBA does not care about your contest and teams make changes to their players’ status up until game time. Paying attention to the Alarms page and Twitter are two nice ways to gather last minute info. This does not mean you always have to make changes to your team based on any new info that comes out, but finding value in late scratches allows you that extra top player in your lineup.