Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Targeting Bullpens

While there may be a decisive line drawn in the sand between season-long and daily (DFS) fantasy baseball, players of both can come together in the long-suffering hate for MLB bullpens. All too often, we’ve seen a team’s bullpen turn what began as an outstanding performance by a starting pitcher into nothing more than a mediocre outcome. Whether it’s a reliever allowing inherited runners to score or just blowing the win outright, fantasy baseball owners find themselves longing for the days when a starter was able to take care of business for himself and throw a complete game. This era of the five or six-inning start we are now in has done nothing but cause late-inning anxiety for all.

As you seek to improve upon the quality of your pitching staff via trades and waiver claims, studying each team’s bullpen is integral to your success. If you’re chasing wins or need help with your ERA, a soft bullpen can be your undoing, regardless of how solid the arm is you’ve picked up. Save for top-tier hurlers like Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber, most managers will pull their starter in a game decided by three runs or fewer if that starter has struggled late and has runners on-base. That’s fine if you’re Alex Wood and you’ve got the Dodgers’ No. 2 overall bullpen behind you, but what happens when you’re Gio Gonzalez and your bullpen (the Nationals) is the worst in the majors?

Below is a look at the bullpen rankings for all 30 teams. When you’re deciding on which pitchers to target in trades, make sure you give a look at this chart. Trying to deal for Jose Berrios, Sean Manaea and even Yu Darvish becomes a much riskier proposition than trading for Carlos Carrasco, Jordan Montgomery and Robbie Ray simply because their bullpens are so bad and so overworked, that you’ll find yourselves staring at the TV screen, begging for the manager to not make a move to the pen.

You can also use this information for targeting and using hitters as well. Just a quick glance at the bottom of the above chart tells you that hitters in the NL East have a pretty good chance of success once they get deeper into the game. To be more specific, take a look at hitters from both the Braves and the Marlins. Players like Freddie Freeman, Matt Adams, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon should all warrant a little extra attention knowing they’ll be facing three of the worst bullpens several times over the course of the second half. Not to mention, with the exception of Max Scherzer, none of those teams have a dominant starter which means the bullpens will see extra time on the hill as managers attempt to play the match-ups.

Most fantasy owners think they’re being savvy by seeking out a number of buy-low candidates – those who struggled in the first half but are expected to improve – but you need to start thinking outside the box. Most buy-low candidates are struggling for a reason and there’s no guarantee they will actually turn their seasons around. You’re also going to have a lot more trade competition as everyone tends to follow the same path and seek out the same players. However, if you start to target pitchers who have strong, supportive bullpens behind them and hitters who will be facing teams with starters who don’t pitch past the fifth or sixth inning and have a weak bullpen behind them, you’re tapping a resource few people even consider.