As both a fan and owner of Amir Garrett, I was very nervous about today’s start in Milwaukee. I thought he was dodging a bullet when the Reds adjusted their rotation and he missed facing the Cubs over the weekend, but a start at hitter-friendly Miller Park meant Garrett was back in the line of fire. There was modest hope as the Brewers walked in with just a .305 wOBA at home with a 32-percent strikeout rate, but that didn’t mean Ryan Braun wouldn’t be mashing at some point.

As both a fan and owner of Eric Thames, I was very nervous about today’s game in Milwaukee. I didn’t have very high hopes for the lefty on lefty match-up and Thames was 1-for-his-last-11 with six strikeouts. Another 0-for-4 night would be an awful way to start the week and could be the start of the regression everyone is expecting.

Both have had amazing seasons leading up to this match-up, but something had to give for one. Maybe both. Or perhaps, given the outstanding starts for each, maybe neither? It was the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.

Well, the buildup in this article was about as exciting as it got for the Garrett owner in me. The Thames owner, on the other hand, still hasn’t stopped dancing. Garrett never made it out of the fourth inning, having allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on eight hits and four walks with one strikeout. It was not just his worst start of his professional career, but it was probably the ugliest start of any pitcher since Francisco Liriano failed to make it out of the first inning on April 7 (Though as I look now, have you seen Chad Kuhl’s pitching line today? Yeesh!). Thames, on the other hand, is 2-for-3 with two home runs, three RBI, three runs scored and a walk and the Brewers have yet to bat in the sixth inning.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure exactly what this means. I mean, starting Garrett tonight means you screwed the pooch. If you started Thames, that pooch was actually Kate Upton. We’ve expected a beating or two at some point for Garrett, but this was downright abusive. We’ve also expected Thames to slow down, but it looks like that 1-for-11 is about as slumpy as it gets right now. How Garrett responds should be very telling about what you can expect from him in the future. As for Thames, we’re all still waiting for the other shoe to drop. It hasn’t, but we still think it will.

This is the time of year where we start to see numbers normalize. Hot-starting pitchers like Garrett, Kuhl, Wade Miley and Antonio Senzatela are going to come back to Earth. We saw it with Andrew Triggs and James Paxton. We’ll see it with the rest.

The same will happen for hitters soon enough. Sorry, folks, but Thames isn’t hitting the 85 home runs he is currently on pace to hit. He won’t hit .375 and he won’t drive in 145 runs. Avisail Garcia will slow down. So will Chase Headley, Zack Cozart and Ryan Zimmerman. It’s just the nature of the game. The law of averages, if you will.

It’s okay to be excited. Why wouldn’t you be? Just make sure you keep your expectations in check. If you expect the drop-off, you won’t get too attached or bummed out when it happens. You’ll also be able to find yourself a deal you’ll be comfortable with making. Of course you’d like to see Thames hit 50 home runs, but if you expect it, there’s no way you’re selling him high and when he comes up short and only clubs 28 or 30, you’re going to be crazy disappointed. Had you just understood what you had here, you would have been able to cash in at peak value and steal away something better suited for your team’s championship run.

Just sayin’…

My Bet with Loughy

For those who missed today’s show on SiriusXM, you’re going to want to make sure you listen in the coming weeks and look for a Facebook Live coming soon. We used Draft Kings scoring – he took Jason Vargas while I took Miguel Gonzalez. Neither of us were brimming with confidence in our selections, but there we were, on opposite sides of the fence. As of writing this, Vargas is out of the game after allowing three runs on seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts. He has 11.1 points on DK and is on the losing end of what is now a 12-1 game. Gonzalez, on the other hand, has allowed just one unearned run on one hit and one walk with four strikeouts through six innings. Not including the points awarded for the win, Gonzalez has 20.3 points.

We left the stakes up to the listeners of the show and after a number of submission via Twitter and calls into the show, we agreed that @Simpson805 had the best wager for us which was a pie in the face to be broadcast live on social media. And not just any pie. @Simpson805 has us using the fruit pie of all fruit pies – the great stainer of all clothing – blueberry. While we never discussed the notion of a whipped topping, I’m going to have to say a full can of whipped cream needs to be involved.

Cheers to Loughy for being such a great sport!

The rest of tonight’s slate is all in motion right now and I’ve got a killer DFS lineup going for the late slate. I’ll fill you in on it later so not to jinx it, but I will say that it has definitely gotten off to a great start thanks to Zack Greinke and Davis Peralta.

Catch up with you in the Morning Buzz tomorrow!