What a difference a year makes. Four starts into the 2016 season we were freaking out, wondering what the heck was wrong with Dallas Keuchel. He went from 2015 Cy Young award-winning ace to a cautionary tale of diminished velocity and an absence of command. Two of his four starts yielded positive results with regard to his ERA, but his strikeout totals were gone. The other two saw a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, but nine earned runs in 11.2 innings left fantasy owners wondering if they made a massive mistake and overpaid for a one-year wonder. His two starts after that were borderline soul-crushing and owners were jumping ship faster than Billy Zane in Titanic. Yeah, it was so bad it has me referencing the movie Titanic. Cue the Celine Dion music now!

This season, however, things are more than just looking up. It’s actually beginning to look a lot like 2015 again as Keuchel, through his first four starts, has allowed just three runs over 28 innings with a 22:6 K:BB and 0.79 WHIP. His K-rate is slightly down, but the fact that he’s sporting a 2.98 xFIP with a ground ball rate up at 70-percent, is allowing fantasy owners to get excited about paying a mid-tier price on Draft Day for a Cy Young-caliber ace. So what’s this resurgence all about? Where did it come from? It’s actually pretty easy. He stopped throwing strikes.

OK, so a bit of an exaggeration there, but if you look at the numbers for qualified pitchers, you’ll see that Keuchel is throwing only about 30-percent of his pitches inside the strike zone. He’s doing a great job of nibbling the corners and when he does throw it over the plate, he’s staying in the bottom half of the strike zone which is inducing some pretty weak contact and a ton of ground balls. His command of his sinker/slider has been outstanding, he’s throwing more cutters and he’s found a fantastic rhythm with regard to mixing in his changeup, a pitch he almost abandoned last year. There’s no arguing against the results here, but there are certainly a few caveats which will require your attention if you’re an owner or are thinking about throwing down a trade offer for him.

Given the low total of pitches inside the strike zone, you have to assume that, at some point, hitters are going to make the necessary adjustments. Some hitters just can’t help themselves, but the smart ones who see what’s going on here should just stop swinging until Keuchel is forced to heave it over the plate more. Here’s where our Umpire Report should come in handy as you’re now going to have to start looking at which umpires are squeezing pitchers and which ones are giving him the corners.

The other potential issue is the growing number of hitters who are actually looking for pitches low in the zone. The increase in pitchers who utilize a hard slider or sinkerball has brought about more hitters who actually seek out those pitches and have adjusted to more of an uppercut style of swing. If/When they start to catch up here, Keuchel is going to have to start working the upper part of the zone which isn’t exactly a strong suit when your fastball tops out at 89 mph.

Obviously we’d like to see the trend continue for Keuchel as many of us have benefitted tremendously. I know this is a seasonal piece, but the fact that I’ve cashed a bunch of DFS contests using Keuchel over these last three starts definitely gets my juices flowing. There’s nothing better than winning immediate money while your seasonal leagues are getting some pretty sick numbers added in. But we’re going to have to start watching him a lot closer in the next few starts. Watch for the hitter adjustments. Watch the umpires. Maybe I’m just being paranoid having been burnt by him last year. That would be great if that was the case. But should you see him get beaten up a little in an upcoming start, immediately look for the signs.

Sunshine and Dogs’ Asses

We all know the expression – the sun shines on a dog’s ass at least once. I guess the operative words here are ‘at least,’ because what we all witnessed yesterday in San Diego still has me shaking my head. It was as if the brightest rays of the sun remembered this particular dog’s ass – Jhoulys Chacin – and decided to illuminate it once again just to mess with our minds. Plain and simple, Chacin is a dumpster fire. The Padres brought him on to fill a rotation spot but had absolutely zero expectations of him performing well. Why would he? He’s been a veritable train wreck over the last several years. So when he was facing the Diamondbacks who have a .335 wOBA and 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, there was no doubt in my mind that I should have every Diamondback on my rosters active in my lineups. Wow. Did that ever suck. I don’t think I have to warn you not to read too much into this start. That ‘any given Sunday’ cliché from football can certainly be thrown around the baseball world as well as on any given day, any pitcher can dismantle even the toughest of lineups. I would not expect this to happen again, nor do I even look to Chacin as a potential streamer. Just chalk it up to a career moment and leave it behind you. Way behind you.

Take a Bow, Ichiro

While there were a number of home run performances from yesterday you can get excited about, it’s always nice to step away from the fantasy game for a moment and appreciate witnessing something great. In what appeared to be his final at-bat at Safeco Field, the stadium he called home for 11 years, Ichiro went yard in majestic fashion. While I hate to throw my Yankees bias into there, it was a moment I can equate to some of Derek Jeter’s final moments in the game. Jeter’s 3,000th hit was a home run and his final at-bat at Yankee Stadium was a game-winning RBI-single. It was that type of a moment for Ichiro who, no matter what uniform he wears, garners the admiration and respect of both fans and players around the league. If you’ve been watching baseball this century, you’ve witnessed one of the greatest to play the game.

Bumps and Bruises

The injury bug bites everyone in the ass at some point, so here are a few of the recent injuries to monitor, especially if you use daily roster moves in your seasonal leagues.

Jayson Werth has gotten off to a nice start this season, batting .289 with three home runs and seven RBI, but it looks like he’s going to need a few days off after suffering a groin injury. The 37-year old has said he’s dealt with this before and just needs a couple of days to rest, but given the fact that he’s no spring chicken here, you may not have him for the weekend.

Reports are saying that Carlos Correa could have been used yesterday had the Astros needed him, but they were playing it safe with their star shortstop and left him on the bench. If his hand has healed to the point where he can grip a bat, you should be able to use him sooner than later. Check the lineups.

While Jose Iglesias seems to be ok after taking a knee to the head while turning a double play, he is expected to remain in concussion protocol and might not be in the lineup today even if he passes his tests. MLB teams are, thankfully, being very cautious with the head injuries, so expect to see him ride the pine a little heading into the weekend.

While the x-rays came back negative, getting plunked on the hand by a Clayton Kershaw fastball is going to leave a mark…and some swelling…and some soreness. Carlos Gonzalez is being considered day-to-day, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he was out for a game or two with what they’re calling a bruised hand. The Rockies have an off-day today so he’ll be re-evaluated Friday morning and a determination will be made then.

In the realm of the least-shocking news, Travis d’Arnaud is now hurt and listed as day-to-day with a bruised wrist. He actually hit his wrist on a bat while he was making a throw from behind the plate. No interference was called so it was just one of those fluke things that always seems to follow this guy around. While he’s day-to-day, keep in mind that he’s a slow-healer and could be out for a few days.

The Mets also lost Lucas Duda on Wednesday when the first baseman suffered a hyperextended elbow after a collision at first base with Cesar Hernandez. He stayed in the game for a bit longer but was pinch-hit for in the fifth inning and will now undergo a series of tests to determine the extent of the injury. Consider him day-to-day for now, but expect him to miss today’s game and possible a few more in the coming days.

First pitch is at 12:35pm ET today so make sure you get those lineups properly set!