2017 Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report: March 12

Over the past two weeks, The Mock Draft Army has been working overtime. With so many requests for drafts, I’ve taken to opening multiple rooms per time slot as turning people away from a good ol’ mock draft is not what I am about. The Army’s ADP is continuously updated and should prove to be an outstanding tool for you once Draft Day arrives. Again, it should be used as a guideline and not the gospel. ADP is all about public perception and adjusting draft strategies on the fly. If you are looking for actual rankings, again, let me point you towards the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Rankings & Tiers created by Ray Flowers.

That being said, let’s get to the Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report and see who’s rising, who’s falling and who’s making their fantasy baseball draft debut!

Risers

Jose Reyes, SS/3B NYM (+6.4%) – With news surfacing that David Wright’s shoulder injury is going to keep him out for at least the first month of the regular season, Reyes’ stock is on an upward trajectory as the new starting third baseman for the team. He’s obviously past his prime and won’t put up the numbers of old, but often times the fantasy game is about opportunity and Reyes has one now. His 30 games at third base in 2016 already have him qualified at the position but check your league rules and see how many games are needed for eligibility. He played 11 games at shortstop last season and is a better value there if you can use him.

Brandon Drury, 3B/OF ARI (+6.2%) – Another guy you’ll want to check the position eligibility rules for here. Drury played most of his games in the outfield last season, but he also had 38 at third base, 12 at second and even one appearance at first base. He is climbing up boards right now as a result of a solid spring (batting .308 with three extra-base hits through 26 at-bats) and word coming that he will be the team’s starting second baseman to open the year. Keep in mind that Chip Hale is expected to move some guys around as he also has Chris Owings who can play short and the outfield as well while Ketel Marte is backing up everyone around the infield. Drury has mid-level power and should prove to be nice and helpful in the middle infield.

Daniel Norris, SP DET (+6.2%) – The young lefty saw a real nice uptick in his fastball velocity last year and is getting some worthy buzz this spring as the expected fourth-starter. His improvement on his secondary offerings has taken another step forward and the Tigers believe his four-pitch arsenal is ready for full-time work out of the rotation. Beware of the innings cap he will likely see, but there’s nothing wrong with giving him a late-round look for some first-half use.

Cam Bedrosian, RP LAA (+6.0%) – This bump in ADP was easily expected once word broke that Huston Street would be sidelined for at least a month with a Grad-1 lat strain. Bedrosian has great stuff, a strong double-digit K/9 and an improving ground ball rate to boot. Some people are talking about Andrew Bailey getting some closer work as well, but when was the last time that guy was healthy? Angels manager Mike Scioscia had no issue with handing the ninth to Bedrosian last year, so expect him to be “the guy” to open the season.

Robert Gsellman, SP NYM (+4.6%) – He was battling with Seth Lugo for the fifth-starter job and while we’re only at March 12 here, it looks like the Mets are leaning his way. Lugo will head to the bullpen where he’s thrived before and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Gsellman had a real nice run for the Mets last year with an 8.46 K/9 and 2.42 ERA over 44.2 innings. He’s still a late-round grab, but if you’re a true believer (and I kinda am), beware the Mets fan in your league. That guy will probably reach.

Fallers

David Price, SP BOS (-18.2%) – So now we’re at the place where the data is starting to really show the impact of Price’s injury. The overall ADP may be just 10 spots, but look at the minimum/maximum of when he’s been drafted. The 207 was from a mock draft done the day the news broke, but he has been steadily climbing back up again. Folks will always be concerned as to whether he’s going to be worthwhile, but at some point, as he’s falling down the draft board, you have to establish whether the risk is now being outweighed by the potential reward.

Tom Murphy, C COL (-7.9%) – He’s been steadily falling down draft boards since manager Bud Black said he would like for Murphy and Tony Wolters to split the work behind the plate this season. Originally, the belief was that Murphy would be seeing the heavier end of that platoon work rather than a 50/50 split, but with recent news of Wolters hyperextending his elbow, we might see a return to that belief. Obviously it depends on the extent of the injury and you should probably still expect the 50/50 split, so be careful if/when you see his ADP tick up once again.

Jason Kipnis, 2B CLE (-7.6%) – He had returned to work as a DH earlier in the week, but it looks like the shoulder is barking enough that the Tribe wants their second baseman to sit for some extended time to heal. His status for Opening Day is officially in jeopardy, but in truth, a cautious approach here is the best way to ensure that Kipnis doesn’t miss more time than is necessary. Even if he were to open the year on the DL, he probably won’t miss more than the first two weeks of the season. That gives him plenty of time to provide you with those power/speed numbers you’ve been expecting.

Max Scherzer, SP WAS (-6.8%) – This is a similar situation to that of Price, but to a much lesser degree. In fact, in the drafts right around the announcement of the finger/knuckle issue, Scherzer still wasn’t falling beyond the early third round. He threw a simulated game Sunday (March 12) and no issues were reported as of press time here, but he’ll continue to be brought along slowly and monitored daily. I’m still not ready to bump him down draft boards at all and believe, even if he were to start the season late, he should be able to return full value.

David Dahl, OF COL (-6.0%) – You can see by the 173 max drafted that the news of the stress reaction in his rib (not a back injury) is starting to impact his ADP. And while the news is big and should definitely affect where you draft him, keep in mind that if you have a DL spot and can place him on it immediately, make sure you grab a solid extra outfielder and your selection of Dahl in his usual 6^th/7^th/8^th round spot will not be in vain. We still aren’t sure how long he will be out, but even if he misses the first month of the season, he should be worthwhile. Of course, maybe drafting Gerardo Parra as that extra outfielder is the best way to keep that share of Coors Field everyone desires.

Notable New Faces

James Shields, SP CHW – The overall numbers are not trending in the right direction and even with a decent start to the spring, there is a major concern with using Shields in your fantasy rotation. He’s nothing more than bench fodder at this point, so using your last pick on him isn’t the absolute worst thing you could do. I wouldn’t, but that’s just me.

Peter O’Brien, OF KC – This is what happens when you’re tied for the league-lead in spring training homers. He had some buzz last year due to some lingering catcher eligibility, but he’s considered just an outfielder at this point. The Royals could probably use him as a fifth outfielder and/or right-handed bat off the bench, but with guys like Paulo Orlando and Brandon Moss in camp, it seems like a bit of a long shot for him to contribute in the fantasy realm outside of DFS games.

Tim Tebow, OF NYM – Just the Mets fans torturing me at the tail end of a draft. One guy did it at the end of a 15-teamer (his last pick) and when I was joking about it in another draft room….BAM! Another guy took Tebow with his last pick. It’s now happened four times in total, but please…..there is no way Tebow makes the team or ever does anything of value in the majors, outside of a community relations photo opp. At least we know the Mock Draft Army has a sense of humor.

Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report