Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 12

There’s no denying that Week 12 was a crucial time for fantasy owners. A win meant you could turn your attention towards Week 13 and the fantasy playoffs while a loss probably had you wondering when Ray Flowers was going to start pushing out content for the 2017 MLB Draft Guide. For the select few who lost and are still reading this, maybe Week 13 still provides you with the hope of a “win and you’re in” game. Whichever the case may be, those of you still involved are likely trying to sort out some of what went down this past week as a number of high-end receivers and tight ends failed to earn their keep and you want…better yet…need…answers.

Julio Jones saw just seven targets and for the second time in four weeks, posted numbers you might expect from someone like Jermaine Kearse and not the guy you drafted third overall in your PPR league. Amari Cooper did the same to you in Week 12. So did Allen Robinson, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald and don’t even get me started on Brandin Cooks! At least T.Y. Hilton had the excuse of relying on Scott Tolzien to get him the ball, but even so, it’s a hard pill for any fantasy owner to swallow when their top wideouts fail to produce at such a crucial time of the season.

Rather than let your frustration get the better of you and tilt you towards starting Marquess Wilson over any of the aforementioned receivers, it is your duty as an owner to understand why things unfolded the way they did. Were you aware of Patrick Peterson shadowing Julio? Did you see how the coverage could fade towards Cooper, leaving Michael Crabtree in a number of potential soft one-on-one match-ups? How about the fact that Cardinals coach Bruce Arians continues to try and out-think the opposing coach rather than just utilize his most potent offensive weapons? Are you still blind to the fact that Michael Thomas is Drew Brees’ favorite?

Obviously a lot of these situations can be tough to predict and as frustrating as they were in Week 12, you cannot over-think the next week and give up on those who failed you. Jones, Cooper, Fitzgerald, Baldwin and even Robinson (garbage time) should probably still be active for you next week. And for those thinking about giving up on Cooks, keep in mind, in football, we often see the squeaky wheel getting the grease. He complained about his role in the offense and now faces a struggling Detroit pass defense that ranks dead last in the league. Something tells me Brees is going to look his way early and often.

Again, it’s not an exact science and some weeks can certainly be frustrating, but dismissing highly-targeted receivers because of a few frustrating weeks is only going to augment your angst. Sure, there are some players who may be seeing an increased role as the season moves along and injuries pile up, but very few of them…very few…are worth risking your playoff life.

Now let’s hit the targets!

Week 12 Target Leaders

While some might think I’m crazy after back-to-back 100-yard performances, I am still pretty lukewarm regarding Travis Kelce. He’s a better option than some of the crap sitting on your waiver wire like Lance Kendricks and Dennis Pitta, but I’m not going to continue expecting 15 targets or 100 yards per game. His numbers through the first two seasons don’t dictate those expectations and the impending return of Jeremy Maclin should temper your enthusiasm. You might get one more tasty game from him this week against the Falcons as it doesn’t appear Maclin is 100-percent, but he’s much more likely to repeat his usual 870 yards and five touchdowns this season than to surpass them.

OK, so I was crapping on Marquess Wilson a little up above, but again, are you really going to pin your fantasy championship dreams on the shoulders of him and Matt Barkley? His performance was the epitome of a garbage-time receiver and while you may get hyped up over his 11 targets, keep in mind that four different Bears receivers saw at least nine targets and the likelihood of Barkley throwing 54 times in a game again is pretty small. You might be tempted with the 49ers coming to town in Week 13 or the match-up with Detroit in Week 14, but it’s traps like these we desperately try to help you avoid.

If you’re really desperate…and I mean reeeeeeeeeally desperate for tight end help, then you probably have nothing to lose in taking a shot on Jermaine Gresham. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that he hasn’t been fantasy relevant since 2012, but this recent re-connection with Carson Palmer just might have a little something to it. And yes, I did say RE-connection. Few people actually look back to 2010 when Gresham and Palmer played together in Cincinnati and the tight end was an emerging rookie. He saw 83 targets that season and was a go-to guy for Palmer back then. As Palmer falls out of love with Michael Floyd, John Brown and even J.J. Nelson, he is looking for another reliable target and Gresham seems to be fitting the bill inside the red zone lately. Yes, this might be grasping at straws, but Gresham has now scored in each of his last two games and in Week 13, the Bengals face the Redskins who rank 26^th in the league against the tight end.

Those of you looking to jump on the Tyreek Hill train, you may have already missed it. Not only will he be tough to get off waivers, but again, with regard to the Chiefs, you have to watch for the return of Maclin. Hill is certainly an emerging star, but once Alex Smith has his ol’ reliable back, Hill’s targets are going to decline.

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

If you’re wondering what the heck happened to Jarvis Landry, remember back in the early weeks of the season where we discussed looking deeper into some players who had high target percentages. While Landry may be seeing the bulk of the targets, keep in mind that the Dolphins simply aren’t throwing as much now that they’ve learned to lean on Jay Ajayi more. Ryan Tannehill has thrown the ball more than 30 times just twice in the last eight games and the Fins have the second-lowest number of pass attempts in the NFL. Landry also isn’t getting a big share of the red zone looks. While he may have the second-highest target rate, there are countless other receivers, I’d rather use in the coming weeks.

Kenny Britt has surpassed Tavon Austin as the most-targeted receiver on the team and we should start seeing increased separation between the two’s target rates. Jared Goff is only going to get more comfortable in this offense and with that, his pass attempts are going to increase. He’s utilizing Britt and tight end Lance Kendricks a little more and will likely continue to do so in the future. We’re not expecting world-beating numbers, but Britt’s value in PPR formats should get a bump.

Red Zone Target Leaders

We’re seeing a lot of the usual suspects when you look at the overall leaderboard and sort by red zone targets. However, for those in standard-scoring leagues, you may want to make sure you look at it by red zone target rate as well. Kyle Rudolph may only have 13 red zone targets on the season, but he’s way ahead of anyone else on the Vikings with regard to red zone target rate. Maybe that changes a little once Stefon Diggs is fully healthy, but it’s doubtful you’ll see too dramatic a swing.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 13 Match-Up to Watch

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Do I even need to elaborate on this one? Drew Brees is money in the bank at home and he will happily find Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and yes, even Brandon Cooks throughout the game. The Lions rank 28^th against the tight end so look for Coby Fleener to get some action and don’t forget Mark Ingram. The Lions rank 31^st against running back pass plays. On the other side, we’ve got a Saints defense that got beat early by the Rams last week. Matthew Stafford will be looking to air it out all game which means both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate should see some nice volume. Eric Ebron put up a doughnut last week and will now dunk that doughnut on the Saints who rank 21^st against the tight end and look for Theo Riddick to bust it open from the backfield. Start ‘em all if you can!