Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 7

If you go back and look at the numbers from this time last season, you’ll notice that, overall, passing is actually down. The drop isn’t huge, but last season, there were multiple teams with over 300 pass attempts to just one (Baltimore) this year. On top of that, we’re also not seeing the quality numbers for receivers whom we expected to lead the way in targets. Antonio Brown has been dealing with a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger again, DeAndre Hopkins and Brock Osweiler are struggling to get on the same page, Odell Beckham has been wildly inconsistent and, of course, the rash of injuries we’ve seen over the first seven weeks.

We’ve also seen a significant decline in the overall production of tight ends. This time last season saw 12 tight ends consistently on the Overall Targets Leaderboard. This year, not only has that number dropped, but the overall production from the position is down in both targets and receiving yards. Not to mention the red zone looks have dropped a bit as well as the total receiving touchdowns.

But it’s not all doom and gloom here as the wide receiver position is still very much rich with depth. Marvin Jones has been enjoying a significant uptick in both snaps and targets while names like Tavon Austin and Terrelle Pryor continue to climb up the targets ladder. We may also see a fe new names popping up as some quarterback shifts could lead to some isolated, weekly performances. Landry Jones seems to have a nice rapport with Dareus Heyward-Bey, Jay Cutler is likely to rekindle his on-field bromance with Alshon Jeffery, Colin Kaepernick has been connecting more with Torrey Smith and Marcus Mariota seems to have finally awakened from his early-season slumber. While the elite wideouts and tight ends continue to see their targets, the rest of the field should have some excellent choices if you need to dig deep during the bye weeks.

Here's a look at the targets to date:

NFL Week 7 Target Leaders

We saw quite the explosive game from Davante Adams this past Thursday and for many, it came as a bit of a surprise. Adams played just 31 snaps in Week 6 and left with a concussion. Given the short week, Adams was considered more of a game time decision as he looked for clearance via the league’s protocol and most folks pivoted to Ty Montgomery, who was expected to see, not just an increase in targets, but several carries out of the backfield as well. But while Montgomery had himself a nice day, it was Adams who stole the show after being declared active early in the day Thursday. Obviously he dominated the targets, but what folks should really pay attention to is the workload of Jordy Nelson and how that could affect Adams moving forward. Nelson hasn’t looked good at all this season which brings concern regarding the status of his knee. If he doesn’t turn it around this week, Adams should continue to see a healthy dose of looks from Aaron Rodgers and that certainly can’t be bad.

While he didn’t get into the end zone, Mike Wallace provided an outstanding day for those who started him in seasonal PPR leagues and DFS. With no Steve Smith, Wallace was already primed to see strong targets in a relatively soft match-up, but the double-digit receptions and 100-plus receiving yards were more than just a pleasant surprise. It’s a shame the Ravens are on a bye in Week 8 as this could have been a nice momentum-builder, but a face-off with his former team, the Steelers, should have him worth using again.

Another nice surprise was Michael Thomas’ 10 catches for 130 yards. He failed to find the end zone as well, but again, the volume more than makes up for it. He’s now seen just one fewer target than Brandin Cooks and has a better catch rate and YPC average. Drew Brees loves this kid’s size and hands and should continue to find him both downfield and across the middle. The lack of red zone targets is a bit of a bummer but the on-field rapport is still developing between Thomas and his quarterback, so just be patient.

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

We’re starting to see a bit of separation between Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas right now, so for those in PPR leagues, take notice. He’s got the edge in quite a number of categories, so if you’re looking to upgrade your wide receiver corps in the coming week, Sanders is easily the one to target on the Broncos. That’s not to say we’re unhappy with Thomas’ production. Just looking to promote the guys who are seeing the most opportunities.

Check out the target rates for Travis Benjamin (20.1%) and Tyrell Williams (19.3%). That gap has narrowed considerably over the last few weeks and Williams has really become a favorite target for Philip Rivers. The 6-foot-4, second-year receiver has really blossomed this season and it’s blatantly obvious that Rivers will continue to feed him the ball in the red zone as it’s just a matter of throwing it up and just letting him out-jump the corners who are attempting to cover him.

Red Zone Target Leaders

In looking at the red zone target leaders, there don’t appear to be any real surprises. Maybe Tyrell Williams, but we just addressed that above. Jason Witten continues to see the red zone looks from Dak Prescott and Jamison Crowder remains the most targeted receiver inside the 20 on the Redskins. I will say that, for those frustrated by Allen Robinson’s lack of production, keep in mind that A. the schedule lightens up a bit for the Jaguars in the coming weeks and B. He’s still seeing the vast majority of red zone targets on the team. Stay patient. Bluer skies are ahead.

Remember, it’s also very important to look at Red Zone Target Percentage. Players like Kyle Rudolph, Brandon LaFell, Anquan Boldin and Mike Wallace may not be on people’s radar because they don’t have double-digit targets inside the 20, but each one of them owns or shares the lead in red zone targets on their respective teams. If they’re available in your league, you may want to make a move and drop some of the dead weight on your roster.  

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 8 Game to Watch

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

This game is getting all sorts of attention as both offenses are high-octane and it’s set with an O/U of 53 right now. The Falcons pass defense ranks 24^th and they’ve given up an average of 294 yards per game through the air along with 15 passing touchdowns. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams should see a heavy dose of targets, as well as ty Montgomery who, even with Knile Davis in-house, could see more carries out of the backfield. The Packers pass defense ranks 10^th and they give up an average of just 242 yards per game along with seven passing touchdowns, but they’re weak on the outside with regard to coverage and haven’t really faced anyone of the same caliber as Julio Jones. Look for Matt Ryan to take numerous chances downfield with him while leaning on Mohamed Sanu and Jacob Tamme to move the chains and work inside the red zone. Points galore, baby!!