Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 6

With the running back position being further decimated by injuries and shared backfields, we can continue to appreciate the vast wealth of wide receivers available each week to fantasy football owners. Just look at the situation in Green Bay. Both Eddie Lacy and James Starks have already been ruled out for Week 7’s Thursday contest and while they may have dealt for Knile Davis and are expected to bring Don Jackson up from the practice squad, the Packers are getting more of their receivers such as Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery involved in the offense, thus making them more viable fantasy options during the bye weeks. We’re not talking WR1 or 2 level, but for your WR3 or flex spot, both could prove to be difference-makers in your weekly games.

There are actually more than just a few situations with similar happenings. The 49ers have not only lost Carlos Hyde for this week, but the switch to Colin Kaepernick has made Torrey Smith relevant again. In Detroit, the loss of Theo Riddick has afforded an expanded role to Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin. Both receivers posted strong totals in Week 6 and should continue their ascension up the targets leaderboard as the Lions are likely to continue throwing the ball considerably more moving forward.

Other quarterback injuries and changes have also helped usher in a few more receivers with whom you need to be acquainted. The Jets are benching Ryan Fitzpatrick, so while Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa remain the top two, Geno Smith is likely to find Charone Peake a few extra looks given the fact that the two have a strong rapport from regularly working together at practice. With Landry Jones taking over for the Steelers, perhaps Dareus Heyward-Bey and Eli Rodgers see an increase as well.

And, of course, let’s not forget things like the emergence of Clay Meredith, Mohamed Sanu being healthier, the Steve Smith injury opening the door wider for Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman and Dallas’ heavier usage of Cole Beasley and Brice Butler.

Maybe this lends more to the DFS world having more low-cost options for GPP contests, but you just never know if one of these “also-rans” will jell with their quarterback and prove to be more than just a fill-in. Again, we’re not talking about elite-level talent, but who’s to say you can’t make a living off volume alone? Grabbing one or two of these lower-level receivers and stashing them on your bench may prove to be quite fruitful as the season plays on. Just a thought as we look to set our lineups for the upcoming week.

Now let’s hit the targets.

Week 6 Target Leaders

We can sit and gush over how great a pick-up Cameron Meredith has been thus far, but rather than continue to state the obvious, let’s talk about his shared targets leader, DeAndre Hopkins. If you’ve been listening to the Fantasy Alarm show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, you probably heard Jeff Mans’ analysis of Brock Osweiler and have been huddled up in the fetal position, rocking back and forth in a corner somewhere. The happy feet, the stepping up in the pocket too early and the sailing of throws have been a huge problem for the Texans passing game. He has not been the quarterback the team thought they were getting and the fact that he’s had seven interceptions just on passes to Hopkins alone is enough to send every owner to the booby hatch. However, there just might be a light at the end of the tunnel. First off, the 15 targets this week should be taken as a good sign. Just as I said above, volume can be a very beneficial thing. If Hopkins is going to see double-digit targets each week, he is going to produce. Will it be at the level you had hoped when you drafted him in the first round? No, but something is definitely better than nothing and hopefully, you’ve been a good owner and beefed up your supporting cast. Now it seems unlikely that the Texans will make a switch to Ryan Mallett, given the money they threw at Osweiler in the offseason, so don’t assume that’s coming anytime soon (even though we all hope it does happen). But if it does, we’ve already seen Mallet and Hopkins work together. Osweiler will work at fixing his issues, but if he doesn’t, it’s tough to imagine the Texans just throwing in the towel and sticking with him. Give Hopkins another week or two before you hit that panic button. Let this play out a little longer.

Ty Montgomery makes an appearance on this week’s leaderboard and as we already said, his role is expected to expand in the coming weeks. They’ve used him as a runner in practice and that means he’s going to see a nice increase in snaps moving forward. Between rushing attempts, check downs and regular work as a receiver, he should prove to be a nice bench guy to be used when you have bye week issues.

It's about time Allen Hurns started getting more heavily involved and given the way the Jaguars look right now, the increase should be legit. He was a better option in standard leagues than PPR last year because the majority of his looks were coming in the red zone, but if the Jags can get him more looks between the 20s, he could prove to be a regular addition to your starting lineup.

I expected DeSean Jackson to see an increase in targets when Jordan Reed suffered his concussion, but it was Pierre Garcon who became more heavily involved in the Redskins passing game. However, I don’t expect this to stick as Kirk Cousins gets more comfortable with Vernon Davis. He’s no longer the deep threat he used to be and for moving the chains or inside the red zone, Cousins is likely to use his other targets.

Welcome back to the party, Odell Beckham! Not much more to say than that. He’s an elite-talent who got the monkey off his back in Week 6. Now if the media will hop off as well, he should be able to just do his thing.

Charone Peake? Just wait and see. It’s all going to come down to how much Geno Smith looks for him this week.

Click Next to get to the Oversall Targets Leaderboard and Analysis ---->

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

If there was ever an example of value surviving on volume it would be Jarvis Landry. The guy is seeing a league-leading 31.5% of the targets in Miami and while he only has one touchdown on the year, his targets remain high and he should continue to rack up decent points. Obviously he’s more valuable in PPR formats, but should his touchdown total start to increase, his value in standard league will be back on the rise.

While there are no other San Francisco receivers on the leaderboard, you can likely expect to see Torrey Smith start creeping up at the expense of Jeremy Kerley. He’s not going to be phased out completely, but the seven targets he saw this past week were the lowest he’s seen in the last three games while the seven Smith saw were the second-most he’s seen in a game this year. Quinton Patton also saw a season-high seven targets and Vance McDonald is just getting back to full health. You see where this is all headed?

Watch those tight ends, people! Greg Olsen, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph all lead their respective teams in target percentage through the first six weeks of the season. Jordan Reed does as well which may help Vernon Davis and, of course, you know Rob Gronkowski is going to be climbing the targets ladder as well. You may even want to keep a close eye on Jimmy Graham too as he and Russell Wilson seem to be on the same page finally. Owning a tight end who leads his team in target rate is easily a significant upgrade to any other, but keep watch on who is seeing the majority of the red zone work.

Red Zone Target Leaders

The owners of Jordan Reed are obviously bummed out, but those who took a shot on Jamison Crowder early in the year are pretty happy he’s gone right now. Cousins has once again locked onto Crowder inside the red zone and that is going to help keep his value up in standard leagues. He’s not going to be a PPR monster, but a return to heavy red zone work will still make him an option during the bye weeks.

Chargers wide receiver Tyrell Williams fizzled in the targets department this past week against the Broncos, but he remains a major player inside the red zone. He saw just three targets the whole game, but two of them were inside the red zone and one of those two was inside the 10-yard line. Against softer pass defenses he’s going to see his usual targets, but it’s reassuring to know that even when he’s facing a tougher opponent and the targets are down, he’s still seeing action in the red zone.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 7 Game to Watch

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

While most people are going to try and speculate on Chiefs receivers against the Saints this week, this Chargers/Falcons game looks like it’s going to be an all-out aerial assault. You’ve got an over/under of 53.5 so Vegas expects a high-scoring affair and you’re looking at two very bad pass defenses. Hard to imagine how the Chargers rank ninth according to Fantasy Outsiders DVOA numbers, but they have allowed an average of 280 yards through the air while giving up 10 passing touchdowns on the season. The Falcons’ pass defense ranks 23^rd in the league and gives up 285 passing yards per game and has allowed 14 touchdowns through the air. Julio Jones is a must-start regardless of the match-up, but you should also be able to enjoy the likes of Mohamed Sanu and Jacob Tamme this week. For the Chargers, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry are all in play. Maybe even Antonio Gates if his snaps aren’t limited still.