Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 5

Last week, I warned you of the calm before the storm. We looked at the fact that Weeks 3 and 4 seemed to be dominated by the running backs and how fantasy owners were starting to trade off their high-end wideouts in order to secure themselves an elite runner. Should you have significant depth at the receiver position, that is definitely an option, but as predicted, we had another shift in the fantasy points power that tilted towards the wide receivers once again.

By the time the dust settled on Week 5, we had 13 100-yard performances from wideouts and tight ends while Falcons running back Tevin Coleman kicked in 134 receiving yards from the backfield. From the ground game, we had just six 100-yard performances. But before you go flip-flopping back and forth and start selling your runners, keep in mind that, based on the way things seem to be going – based on who is seeing the targets each week – there’s plenty of depth to be had at the wide receiver position.

Let’s take a look at the targets and see…

NFL Week 5 Target Leaders

Welcome back to the big kids’ table, Brandon Marshall. After a slow start due to a knee injury, Marshall has, once again, become the focal point of the Jets’ passing attack. While Quincy Enunwa has been solid thus far, he is no Eric Decker and Ryan Fitzpatrick will continue to feed Marshall the ball in most cases. In fact, scroll down and look at the disparity in target percentage for the two receivers.

It was a surprisingly big game for Jeremy Kerley this past week as quarterback Blaine Gabbert locked onto him in a big way against the Cardinals. However, before you start wasting your FAAB budget, keep in mind that the change in quarterback this week is likely to have a seriously adverse effect on Kerley’s targets. I’m not saying that Colin Kaepernick is going to ignore Kerley, but it’s very possible that Torrey Smith, Quinton Patton and even Vance McDonald/Garrett Celek all start seeing an increase in looks. Of course, Kaepernick is still a disaster under center, so even looking at the alternative options could be a mistake. One of the reasons he lost the job was because his field of vision is terrible. If his No. 1 target isn’t open, he immediately gives up on the play and tries to run. Whether Chip Kelly knocked that out of his is yet to be seen, but there’s very limited promise here.

The hype machine is in full effect for Cameron Meredith as the former Illinois State quarterback turned out a masterful performance last week against the Colts. He dominated the looks from Brian Hoyer and gave a huge boost to those fantasy owners who paid attention to what Jeff Mans was preaching all week on the SiriusXM Fantasy Alarm show. With no Kevin White, a limited Alshon Jeffery and one of the worst pass defenses around, Meredith was able to shred the Colts secondary and carve himself out a bigger role in the Bears passing attack. He should definitely be picked up to provide bench depth, but just be sure you keep your expectations in check as this week’s match-up against the Jaguars should prove to be a lot tougher.

You don’t get a bigger outlier here than Brandon LaFell. I don’t care if A.J. Green sees double-coverage the rest of the way. It’s going to be a cold day in hell before I start endorsing LaFell, let alone use him in any of my lineups.

Randall Cobb had himself a real nice day finally, but keep those expectations in check. He could certainly be a major factor in the Packers’ passing game, but after more than a year-long absence from the fantasy-points leaderboard, it’s tough to trust him in any situation where he isn’t facing a team that sucks against slot receivers. And that’s exactly what we had this week. The Giants are a disaster against receivers coming out of the slot and that is why Cobb saw such a heavy dose of targets. The match-up this week against Dallas isn’t bad. It’s not great, but it isn’t bad, so perhaps we get a game where he will at least have value as a WR3.

We’ve discussed, at length, Sammie Coates’ preseason issue with drops. So much so that I continue to quote Mock Draft Army veteran Andy S. who once opined that Coates’ hands were actually made out of buttered stones. However, Coates’ performance in-season has been vastly underrated. The targets still belong to Antonio Brown and tight end Jesse James is getting plenty of work, but now we’re seeing Coates get more looks than Markus Wheaton and, obviously, Eli Rodgers. Should Coates hang onto the No. 2 receiver job in Pittsburgh, he could be worth starting on a more regular basis.

While it will be covered in this week’s Injury Report, I should mention that Jordan Reed is currently in the league’s concussion protocol after being injured at practice. No word yet on his status, but considering this is a chronic issue for Reed over the years dating back to his college days, it should be a serious concern for those who invested. And no, Vernon Davis is not a good pivot.

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

We took a look at a number of teams where the pecking order for targets was being established and as we re-visit those teams right now – Denver, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Detroit – there is no change from week-to-week. Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Evans, Jeremy Kerley and Marvin Jones continue to dominate the targets on their respective teams. We’ve seen a slight shift where Theo Riddick is starting to separate from Golden Tate and keep in mind that Kerley’s rate could decrease with the QB change, but other than that, the rates seem to be in-line with what we have been looking at over the first five weeks. We should start to see a potential shift with the Patriots now that Tom Brady has returned and again, keep tabs on Houston (Will Fuller/DeAndre Hopkins).

Something we actually discussed from the onset of this article series was not falling into the trap of just going with the guys who have the higher target rates. It is a very relative stat and you need to make sure you understand that. While Tavon Austin and Jeremy Kerley dominate with a 30-percent target rate, pay attention to the fact that, for fantasy purposes, neither of them rank above anyone else in the top 20 of this category. Hell, they’re likely closer to the bottom of this list of 60 than anything else. High target rates are fine, but remember that a high target rate in a run-first offense does not mean they are better options than someone whose rate is 10-15% lower on a pass-heavy team such as the Saints or Packers.

Red Zone Target Leaders

For the most part, it’s easy to see that those who dominate the red zone targets are the guys you want active for you almost each and every week. However, we do have a few exceptions, most notably, Jason Witten and Jamison Crowder. We discussed Crowder last week as Jordan Reed started to get those looks, but now that there is a concussion in play, it could tilt back Crowder’s way. Unfortunately, you cannot rely on that just yet. If you’re desperate for a wideout during the bye weeks, you can try it out right now, but I wouldn’t make it a regular thing until he can prove that he and Kirk Cousins are red zone BFFs.

As for Witten, well…not the greatest option. While he’s getting red zone looks, of the nine he has to his credit, none of them have come inside the 10-yard line. Make sure that when you look at the red zone targets and see no touchdowns, you jump to our stats page and look at the inside-the-red-zone breakdown and see from where those targets are coming.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 6 Game to Watch

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Tough not to go all-in on this game, especially if Cam Newton is under center. He’s supposed to play but hasn’t been officially cleared via the league’s concussion protocol. However, that might not even matter as the Saints pass defense is just that bad. New Orleans ranks as the 26^th pass defense and they are allowing an average of 301 passing yards per game this season. Opposing quarterbacks have a collective rating of 101.5 which means that even Derek Anderson could get the job done if he needed to play. Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and even Ted Ginn will be worth a look. On the other side, we all know how well Drew Brees plays inside the Superdome. Couple that with the fact that the Panthers’ pass defense ranks just 22^nd in the league and while they’re only allowing an average of 246 passing yards per game, they’ve coughed up nine touchdowns through the air. We’d like to see Brandin Cooks get back on track this week and he should if they put him in the slot more, but don’t be surprised if Willie Snead, Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener get a major share of the targets once again. Brees loves chucking it downfield to those big ol’ wideouts.