Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 4

If you’re studying the trends and looking at the numbers right now, it feels like the calm before the storm. The first two weeks were exactly what we expected – strong receiving numbers and those who went heavy on wideouts early in their draft found the most success. Yes, even those people who bought into the Zero-RB theory, though there’s still no clear-cut definition as to what exactly that is. But over these last two weeks, the numbers have certainly tilted in the ground game’s favor, relatively speaking. Through the first two weeks, we had 28 100-yard receiving efforts to just seven 100-yard efforts on the ground. Over these last two weeks, the ratio was 22:14. That’s quite the change as NFL coaches continue to prove that establishing a strong ground game is the key to a team’s success, even in a pass-happy NFL.

But while injuries and this shift in the fantasy point structure has prompted many to start looking for running backs on the waiver wire and trade market, one cannot ignore the fact that the quality of backs is already dwindling this season. So far, 12 teams have already gone deeper into their depth chart for a starter and there are at least four or five more teams who appear to be heading in that direction. Meanwhile, eight of those 22 100-yard receiving efforts went for over 140 yards, including Marvin Jones’ 205-yard game in Week 3 and Julio Jones’ franchise-record 300-yard performance this past week. And that’s without superstars like Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins finding their groove.

The point? Stick to your plan. You were doing so well. The tendency to overreact to a couple of early-season losses is prevalent in the fantasy community and there are far too many who are ready to blow up their team, even those who are 2-2 on the year. If the Hopkins owner in your league is 2-2 or worse, make that trade offer of Terrance West and Dontrelle Inman. Super-competitive leagues may not have owners who will buy into it, but be sure your league truly is as super-competitive as you think. It has been my experience that every league has one or two owners who can be easily swayed after a bad start. If you can add a high-end wideout to your roster, whether it’s PPR or standard, you’re going to be much happier in the end.

Now let’s get to the targets…

NFL Week 4 Target Leaders

I’ll give the nod to John Brown as the Week 4 targets leader, but I’m just not buying into the hype on this guy. Maybe there’s a touch of bias because I find it annoying that everyone now refers to him by a nickname given to him by Bruce Arians in camp that makes no sense unless you know the actual context and when you do you realize it doesn’t make sense. But in truth, I just think there are better mouths to feed on this team and the quarterbacks know it. Carson Palmer took advantage of the fact that the Rams were giving up a ton of yardage to receivers lining up out of the slot, but once they made adjustments at halftime, Brown’s targets dropped significantly. He saw just four in the second half and only one of them came from Drew Stanton. There’s just no consistency. People are ready to write-off Hopkins because of two sub-par games but the fact that Brown had just two catches for 22 yards through the first two games means nothing? Puh-leeeze. This guy is as overrated as you can get.

Much of this list consists of names you should expect to see here week in and week out. It’s why you drafted them as high as you did and is the reason you start them each and every week regardless of match-up. However, we do have a few names worth pointing out.

Let’s start with Dontrelle Inman. When Keenan Allen went down, the general consensus was that Travis Benjamin would be the new No. 1 and Inman would move up to the No. 2 slot, mostly because of his service time with the Chargers and his knowledge of the playbook. But up until this week, it was Tyrell Williams who saw the targets. You can credit the Saints defensive backs for doing such a good job covering Benjamin and Williams, but give more credit to Philip Rivers and the Chargers OC Ken Whisenhunt for recognizing the holes and utilizing Inman much more in the second half. Seven of his 11 targets came in the second half and five of them came in one series. He may see a game or two like this again in the future, but more often than not, he’s going to disappoint those whop open their FAAB wallets for him.

Get used to seeing Robert Woods’ name here now that Sammy Watkins is sitting on IR. The Bills have next to nothing in receiving depth and are forced to turn to Woods as their new No. 1. But Woods is undersized at just six-feet tall and is much more of a possession guy than he is a big-play threat. He’ll be a solid own in PPR leagues just based on the volume, but his yardage and touchdown totals likely aren’t going to match up.

There were high hopes for Josh Ferguson early in the preseason but after a lackluster showing in all of the preseason games, the shine was off this prospective heir-apparent in Indianapolis. His involvement this week is encouraging in that maybe the Colts finally realized that they were better off developing him as their pass-catching back than they were using the always-disappointing tandem of Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman. However, even as a regular check-down option, 10 targets seem a little high for him. High for any back in this Colts offense actually. Owners in PPR leagues can keep him on the watch-list, but unless you have a dead spot on your bench, he’s not really worth owning right now.

For the Overall Targets Leaderboard and Analysis, click Next ---->

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Again, this is the best way to understand each team’s pecking order for targets. Most situations are easy to read, but if you take a look at the targets rates, you still might be surprised by those of a few teams. For example:

Denver: Emmanuel Sanders – 33.6% Demaryius Thomas – 21.6%

Tampa Bay: Mike Evans – 29.2% Adam Humphries – 17% Vincent Jackson – 15.8% Cameron Brate – 14.6%

San Francisco: Jeremy Kerley – 26.9% Torrey Smith – 18.5% (didn’t even make the leaderboard)

Detroit: Marvin Jones – 23.7% Golden Tate – 17.1% Theo Riddick – 17.1% Eric Ebron – 16.4%

These are numbers to keep in mind when people are throwing these names around in trades. Is Demaryius Thomas still a No. 1? Will Paxton Lynch lean on Sanders more the way Trevor Siemian has? How obvious is it that Vincent Jackson is being phased out of this offense? Is Kerely really the top dog in SF? How do you view Tate when you see that he’s getting as many looks as Riddick and not many more than Ebron?

You need to ask yourself these questions and be as impartial as you can be. Situations such as Will Fuller having a higher target rate than Hopkins or Michael Crabtree over Amari Cooper will even themselves out with a few more games. But many of these guys playing second and third fiddle are likely to stay just that.

Red Zone Target Leaders

This is easily the best place to look when making some of those tough start/sit decisions for your WR3, Flex and tight end. It’s also a great place to look for value in standard leagues as you don’t need a high target rate if you’re the guy getting all the looks inside the red zone. Seeing Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson and T.Y. Hilton up top in this category only enhances their value in both PPR and standard leagues. You expect them to rack up both yardage and touchdowns. But then you have Jason Witten, Jamison Crowder and even Tyrell Williams who all gain value for their red zone work even though they aren’t the target leaders on their respective teams. The fact that Michael Thomas, Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph lead their teams in red zone targets should ensure that they stay on your radar. If they start to show some consistency, as say Rudolph already has, you’re going to want to put them to work. After all, it’s the only reason Tajae Sharpe is still on some of my teams.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 5 Game to Watch

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

The over/under from Vegas is 50.5, the highest of any other match-up this week. Oakland’s pass defense ranks 28^th in the league, has allowed an average of 326 passing yards per game and has given up eight touchdowns through the air. The Chargers pass defense may rank 13^th, but they give up the fifth-most passing yards per game (290) and have allowed seven passing touchdowns this year. We all know about game flow in Chargers games too, so we can expect a heavy dose of passing, especially in the second half. I like Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and tight end Hunter Henry for this match-up and I’m looking at a potential breakout for Amari Cooper. Don’t sleep on Raiders tight end Clive Walford either as the Chargers rank 20^th in the league against the tight end position and has allowed the eight-most fantasy points to them.