Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 1

Targets, targets and more targets! That is what we covet and that is what we’ll get. With Week 1 in the books, it’s easy to see that the pass-happy NFL is not going to let us down as quarterbacks were chucking the ball up and down the field all day long. I mean, if Alex Smith is going to lead the league in pass attempts, you may as well just sell your running backs right now, amirite? OK, maybe not. We can rein in it just a bit. But I will say this – if Week 1 is a precursor of what’s to come, you better make sure you’ve got yourself plenty stocked on wideouts this year.

As I explained in the first installment of this article, we’re going to be focusing, not just on targets, but also target rate and red zone work. Utilizing those stats (and maybe a few others as well), we’ll be able to make those tough lineup decisions a whole lot easier while also providing a potential blueprint of which players you should target in trades and who you might consider selling off from your team. Now obviously the data we’re looking at is too small a sample size to use when deciding who to trade, but it will help when trying to figure out the pecking order for targets on each NFL team.

Usually, I will break this article up into two sections – the weekly targets leaderboard and the cumulative targets leaderboard. You’ll likely see a number of the same names in the weekly leaderboard, but that will also help you determine which players are the real deal and which ones are likely to be one-week wonders. Nothing worse than wasting waiver priority or FAAB dollars on a flash-in-the-pan. The cumulative leaderboard is the real meat and potatoes. You’ll be able to track which players are most valuable, not just in fantasy, but for their teams as well. It will help provide you with the necessary information for lineup decisions and trade talk.

For today’s edition, we’ve obviously only got one chart, so I took the top 60 in targets – running backs, wide receivers and tight ends – and we’ll just analyze it all in one fell swoop.

Target Leaders

It probably doesn’t come as a much of a surprise that Allen Robinson led the league with 15 targets this week. With no Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon averaging fewer than two yards per carry, you knew Blake Bortles would be airing it out. What may surprise you is the lousy catch rate. Coming down with less than half of what’s thrown your way is not exactly a recipe for success. But before you start thinking a trade of A-Rob is a nice proactive move, check to see that last season, his rate was barely over 50-percent which was significantly under the league average. But that wasn’t stopping Bortles who helped make Robinson the eighth-most targeted receiver last year, so consider your concerns assuaged. He’ll be just fine to use all season long.

Two of the more surprising names atop the leaderboard have to be Jason Witten and Cole Beasley. Hell, Dez Bryant didn’t even make the cut here. With Dak Prescott under center, Witten should continue to see a strong number of targets. Young quarterbacks like to lean on their tight ends, especially one as experienced as Witten. But before you go running out to blow your FAAB on Beasley, keep in mind that when a back-up quarterback gets the starting nod, he likes to lean on those he’s worked with most often. Tony Romo was taking first-team snaps throughout camp while Prescott was off with the second team feeding Beasley. Sure, he and Dez got some work in, but it’s going to take a little more time for the two to build their on-field rapport. Look for Dez to start creeping up the targets leaderboard while Beasley finds his rightful place much further down.

You can probably expect Will Fuller to also drop down the leaderboard as well. He was left in a lot of single-coverage against a weak Bears secondary this time around, but once opposing teams realize they can’t just keep double-teaming DeAndre Hopkins, the targets are going to take a slight decrease for Fuller. Not a huge drop, but just enough for him to slide behind Hopkins for the targets lead on Houston.

None of the other names should surprise you as they are all No. 1 receivers for their respective teams. Yes, even Austin in that horrific Rams offense. He likely won’t find himself in the top 10 each week, but he’s still going to be the most-targeted receiver on that team.

Target Rate Leaders

There’s not a whole lot to do with target rate at this point as it’s a stat that levels out over time. You should start seeing each team’s No. 1 move closer to the top and from there you will also be able to find who the quarterbacks lean on when their top man is heavily covered. You actually see a lot of tight ends rise towards the top early on as No. 2 and 3 receivers take a bit more time to get settled into their roles. Tight ends are usually reliable stand-bys for most quarterbacks, but as the season goes on, they’ll start to get passed on the leaderboard.

Red Zone Target Leaders

This is actually an interesting one to monitor because players who see a high target rate inside the red zone can prove to be more valuable than a player who out-targets them on a regular basis. Jamison Crowder is one to watch, for sure as usually it’s Jordan Reed who dominates the red zone targets for the Redskins. Crowder hasn’t been all that valuable in the past, but with his 10 targets, four of which were inside the red zone, he could prove to be a valuable commodity. There was talk of the red zone role going to rookie Josh Doctson, but perhaps is training camp injury opened the door for Crowder a bit more.

Again, no real surprises with regard to who was seeing the majority of red zone work on their respective teams, but as we will see in a few weeks, there will be some favorites you may not have expected.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 2 Match-up to Watch

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

For DFS purposes, you’re going to want shares of this game all over the place. Eli Manning and Drew Brees should duke it out through the air early and often which means virtually every receiver is in play no matter what the format. Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks are like to be the biggest beneficiaries of the contest while Willie Snead, Sterling Shepard and possibly even Victor Cruz see a healthy share of targets. Maybe even Michael Thomas. It should be interesting to see if Coby Fleener and Brees get onto the same page and look out for Will Tye as a possible low-cost sleeper for the game. Julius Thomas took one to the house in Week 1 for the Jags, so perhaps Tye gets some red zone work.

Targets Leaderboard