Mock Draft Army: ADP Risers & Fallers

We’re another week closer to the start of the MLB regular season which means that we’ve got another week’s worth of mock drafts in the books to help shape the current ADP of the Mock Draft Army. The Army itself has completed 23 mock drafts in total – a solid mix of both 15 and 12-team drafts – and I have also included the data from my LABR mixed league draft, a number of mocks in which I have participated for several other web sites and two leagues in which I will be playing the full season. All in all, the total number of drafts for this round of ADP is 32, all within the 12 to 15 team range.

For those of you playing in standard re-draft leagues, this data should prove to be extremely helpful. The mixture of participants has been strong and those who take part in the Army drafts on a weekly basis all seem to be trying out new strategies as they continuously draft from different spots each time. Draft orders are randomized, but I always try to pay attention to where the repeat drafters are assigned each time. If I notice someone has been drafting from the front end multiple times, I’ll swap them down in the order unless they specifically ask to draft from the top. This is to ensure the data doesn’t get stale and continues to be a helpful tool.

For those who play in the NFBC, this data should be used a little differently. Because of the no trading policy and the fact that the majority of leagues are made up of 15 teams, the actual ADP numbers may not be as helpful to you. However, the trend report that comes out each week most definitely is. As has been stated several times, ADP data should not be used in lieu of rankings. It is a reflection of personal preference and perceived value by the masses and as a result, the trend report allows you to see who is becoming a trendy pick and who might be falling out of favor. With that, you can decide whether you need to reach for a particular player you may covet or, better yet, if you can wait a round or two and maybe increase his net value.

So let’s take a look at the risers and fallers from over the last two weeks as well as which players are suddenly popping up on fantasy owners’ radar and are now actually being drafted.

Risers

Addison Russell, 2B CHC (+14.2%) – He’s 22 years old, he can hit for double-digit home runs and he’ll be batting in an extremely competitive lineup as the everyday second baseman. What’s not to love? OK, maybe that 28.5-percent strikeout rate and .242/.307/.389 slash line. Those could certainly use some work. His strikeout and walk rates have been completely erractic throughout his time in the minors, but if you look at his swing rates from last season, he’s not up there hacking away. He’s swinging through a lot of pitches, but it’s not like he’s fishing outside the zone. Given the overall skill set, he should easily improve in his weak areas, but this probably isn’t the year of the breakout. He could still provide decent numbers in the counting stats, but don’t set your expectations too high.

Byung-ho Park, 1B MIN (+13.4%) – As we discussed the last time we looked at the trend report, Park is definitely on the rise. No one is saying that he’s going to be a 50-homer guy for the Twins, but with expectations set as a 20-25 home run guy with a .260ish average, his 197.4 ADP (16^th round in a 12-team league) seems about right. If he continues to ascend, it could weaken his return value, we can worry about that if it goes any higher than the 180-190 range.

Ketel Marte, SS SEA (+11.5%) – Every year the masses latch onto one guy and shoot his ADP way up beyond where it really should be. With another increase of this magnitude, Marte is coming dangerously close to losing that late-round flier value that we were enjoying just one month ago. Speed from the middle infield is always nice but we don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves here. His plate discipline numbers look good and he makes above-average contact. But he’s still relatively unproven so reaching for him isn’t always the best course of action. That’s not to say that he can’t be successful. I’m just saying that you need to remember some of the more recent trendy picks such as Billy Hamilton or Josh Rutledge. Not only did their popularity push their ADP too high but then neither delivered on their expectations.

Byron Buxton, OF MIN (+11.2%) – His 203.2 ADP  means that folks aren’t pushing too hard to grab him early which is comforting, but he is still on the rise and we all know how everyone loves to overvalue the rookies. I don’t want to smear the guy’s name, but just keep in mind that a lot….and I mean a lot…of what people are saying about him is exactly what they said about Cameron Maybin. There are enough similarities between the two players that I am seriously hedging my bets.

Stephen Piscotty, OF STL (+9.6%) – He and teammate Randall Grichuk are gaining a lot of attention this spring and folks are trying to ascertain whether or not Piscotty has the developing power he’s really going to need to succeed at the big league level. He seemed to take a step in the right direction last year and that, coupled with his strong contact rates and good fortune in the BABIP department had many people thinking Jason Heyward Lite. While it’s tough to throw the ol’ 20-20 potential tag onto him, you can still give him a look in the later rounds. His ADP is on the rise but it’s nowhere near the level that you would be thinking people are reaching for him. He should make for a nice fourth or fifth outfielder.

Fallers

Yoenis Cespedes, OF NYM (-25.4%) – There seem to be a number of skeptics regarding the Showcase’s ability to duplicate the outstanding post-season he had for the Mets last year and that could be what’s contributing to his ADP drop. The usual injury problems are never going to go away with him, so that also helps to keep the price tag down, but in truth, he’s not a guy you really want to sleep on, especially if he’s falling in drafts right now and you can get him for a bargain price, relatively speaking, that is. Keep tabs on him in drafts and see where he’s falling to. A fourth or fifth round grab seems to be the going rate, but you never know what the anti-Mets contingent is saying to help poison the well.

Ian Kinsler, 2B DET (-21.9%) – Yes, he’s on the decline. Yes, he’s not one of the sexy names anymore. But five-straight seasons of at least 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases are actually pretty nice in your middle infield. It would be better if his price dropped a little more considering you’re looking at closer to 10-10 than you are 20-20 or even 15-15, but he can still be a helpful commodity.

Hanley Ramirez, OF BOS (-21.0%) – Pretty sure we covered Hanley’s descent in the last article as well, but it’s probably worth noting that if he continues to drop…and it looks like he will…he just might hit that level where he’s actually going to bring you a reasonable return value. He’s not going to hit home runs like he used to nor will he still bases like he did in the past, but if he is able to stay healthy for the season, there’s no reason to think that he can’t bang you close to 20 home runs again. You’re not getting killer overall production, but maybe if his ADP drops a little further, he’ll be able to give you a positive return value.

Ryan Braun, OF MIL (-18.2%) – My neck! My back! My neck and my back! Considering this is Braun we’re discussing, you can probably throw in the thumb there too, for shits and giggles. The price tag still seems a little high given the level of injury concern (both present and future) and the knowledge that he’s never going to be that 35-home guy we once loved and adored. He claims to be fine and he also says the Brewers are a solid team, neither of which I’m buying right now. But if the price tag continues to drop, I just might be lured into a fifth or sixth round pick.

Ian Desmond, SS TEX (-16.8%) – Well, this drop is a moot point now because with Desmond’s signing with the Rangers, that ADP is about to shoot back up. The rising strikeout rate stinks, as does the batting average drop, but come on, people. He’s one year removed from three-straight 20-20 seasons and his counting stats last year for a shortstop were still tasty. The move to Arlington should help him stop swinging for the fences and just let the power come naturally and there is little concern that a guy who’s played shortstop throughout his career is going to have difficulty adjusting to left field in a pretty small outfield. Looks for Desmond to join the “Risers” next time out.

New Faces

A.J. Reed, 1B HOU – Reed is obviously a top prospect and his path to the majors looked pretty clear as only strikeout-maven Jonathan Singleton stood in his way. Well, to add to the hype, manager A.J. Hinch said that Reed actually stands a chance of winning the first base job outright this spring. The Astros seem to be putting winning ahead of Super-2 status which is a refreshing thing to see, but just keep in mind that money still talks and even with a strong spring, they could hold him back until early-June. This one is definitely for your fantasy radar as there seems to be little doubt that this kid is primed to be a star.

Hector Olivera, OF ATL – Very tough to hazard a guess as to what kind of production we’re going to see out of him this season, but the recent speculation has him between 10-15 home runs with a .260ish average. While the Braves say that he’s going to start in left field for them, he’s still not on many people’s radar despite the fact that he also likely qualifies at third base in some leagues. If you’re looking for a late-round flier with some potential, he’s worth a look, but at this time, nothing more than that.

Daniel Norris, SP DET – He was the feel-good story of 2015 after word broke that he was living out of his van, but Norris also dealt with some struggles and a diminishing strikeout rate during his 60 innings between Toronto and Detroit. But his minor league numbers say there’s something there worth watching and now that he’s completely away from that launching pad in Canada, there could be a reason to keep him on your radar. He’s been coming off the board in the Mock Draft Army around Rounds 22 and 23, so you know there’s no reason to reach.

Orlando Arcia, SS MIL – While Jonathan Villar keeps the shortstop position warm, Arcia will be hanging out in Triple-A just waiting for his call to come. Considering the Brewers are rebuilding, there’s certainly no rush to bring him up, but they also have nothing to lose once the Super-2 deadline passes. There’s a little bit of pop in his bat, but the speed numbers are what you’ll be gushing over once he’s established himself. He’s a late-round stash in leagues with deep benches right now, but his time is most definitely coming.

2016 Mock Draft Army ADP

**As always, if you would like a copy of the Mock Draft Army ADP on a color-coded, sortable spreadsheet, just send an email to mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com.