Never Draft A Closer Early?
By Greg Jewett
This offseason has displayed a shift in how major league teams are approaching the closer position. Due to the success of the Royals building their pitching staff from the back to the front, teams are looking to use their bullpens in a similar fashion to shorten games. Boston, Houston and the Yankees have all traded a cache of prospects to acquire a proven closer, but should fantasy owners do the same? According to the ESPN Player Rater, 15 relievers finished in the top 100 in 2015. This group included Wade Davis who was not the closer until August and Dellin Betances who ceded the role to Andrew Miller. All of this puts fantasy players in the cross-hairs.
In the never ending debate of whether to take closers early in drafts, there are two schools of thought. One faction prefers the security of procuring established closers earlier in drafts to avoid chasing saves during the season. On the other hand, the allure of finding saves on the waiver wire provides those who wait on saves to discover players like A.J. Ramos, Shawn Tolleson and Jeurys Familia, all of whom finished in the top 100 without the job at the onset of the season. Examples like these are partially why it is difficult taking a closer early in drafts.
There is a measure of safety in taking a Wade Davis, Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen this year which can put a fantasy owner at ease. But last year’s leader in saves was Mark Melancon who finished with 51 saves but also experienced an increase in his ERA and a drop in strikeouts. Of the top 21 closers taken in drafts last year, according to average draft positions, only 10 finished in the top 100 on the player rater. Attrition ravaged closers last year as three of the top 21 were injured during the season (Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Glen Perkins), one was not the closer (Dellin Betances) and six lost their job due to poor performance. It is this volatility that makes closers such a risky proposition in drafts.
What is not reflected here from last year’s top 21 drafted closers is the fact that seven relievers who finished in the top-20 were not among those drafted. While it seemed that the Yankees had a clear hierarchy at closer, they muddled the picture by trading for Aroldis Chapman. Prior to the trade, both Chapman and Andrew Miller were among the top five closers taken in early drafts. This could be a dominant bullpen, but the team has not announced who the closer will be in 2016 which clouds the top tier of the position in drafts. Houston, who traded for closer Ken Giles in the offseason, has not named their closer either, but it is hard to imagine that they dealt all those prospects to use him in the eighth inning.
All of this conjecture will not help at draft time unless there is a clear plan of attack. Although taking a top closer in the early rounds is a risky investment, early draft results have shown there to be a shift to starting pitching. Price tags on closers may not be as high as in years past and there will be the same approaches as outlined above. For those who prefer to wait on closers, the waning stocks of a few top picks from last year make for interesting buy-lows in 2016. David Robertson, Cody Allen and Glen Perkins have fallen in the ranks after disappointing years.. High risk, high reward options include Arodys Vizcaino, Sean Doolittle and Huston Street due to the history of their injuries. Trusting a young gun is tough to do as well, but Roberto Osuna grew into the role with Toronto and with a strong start, could hold the job all year for the Blue Jays.
Prior to the start of the season, there are at least five bullpens that will need clarity as to who the closer will be. Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Colorado, Philadelphia and San Diego all have voids in the ninth inning that will require tracking spring training roles for fantasy owners to resolve who will have the position. While these teams search for a closer, the Nationals have two of them and neither is happy about it. Having both Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen in the bullpen is a luxury, but keeping them both satisfied will be difficult.
Maximizing value at closer is a slippery slope in fantasy drafts. This year may be unique as the inflated prices attached to starting pitching may open a unique window for the top tier of closers to become bargains. Two common mistakes to avoid with regard to taking a closer this year are to avoid the inevitable run when it happens during a draft and not to reach for a closer above market value. Value will present itself in each draft. If fellow owners are overlooking closers, make a move. If they are overvalued, then take them when available and keep in mind talented arms who could be this year’s waiver wire finds. These pitchers include but are not limited to: Brandon Maurer, Hunter Strickland and Carter Capps.
Drafting saves early is a risky strategy. Give yourself defined tiers in regard to the position and take a closer at value. Assess the draft and get your targets. Due to the turnover at the position, along with its volatility, using early draft picks to corner the saves market is never guaranteed. Pitchers like Wade Davis and Dellin Betances finished in the top 100 with 17 and nine saves respectively. Target skills and opportunity when taking relievers, not save totals to maximize closers in 2016 drafts. If the past has taught us any lessons, it is that anything is possible at the closer position. Draft accordingly.